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14 July 2020 The on-line newspaper devoted to the world of transports 13:11 GMT+2

June 10, 2020

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Original news
That primed from the pandemic of Covid-19 is more serious the total recession from almost a century

The OCSE shows two scenes, taking into consideration possible a second big wave of the sanitary emergency

That primed from the pandemic of Covid-19 is more serious the total recession from almost a century over the last and a second big wave of the sanitary emergency could ulteriorly sharpen the crisis that is already causing enormous damages to the health, to the job and the well-being of the people. The analysis of the OCSE on the impact of the pandemic on the economy is daunting and still more it they are the illustrated economic perspectives today from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Develop that it evidences that if the restrictions to the activities adopted in the world in order to contain the contagion begin to diminish, the distance towards the economic resumption remains however absolutely uncertain and exposed to the effects of possible a second big wave of infections.

The world-wide economies are in strong difficulty as the introduced measures of control from the majority of the governments and necessary in order to slow down the spread of the virus and to limit the budget of the victims they have caused to the closing of numerous activities in many fields of the economy and the uncertainty on the possibilities of a resumption, also to light of the limited possibilities that a vaccine can be available within this year, it has induced the OCSE to define two possible scenes.

Two perspectives that, second the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Develop, are both likely ones: one is based on the hypothesis that the pandemic is placed under control and the other holds account of happening of a new big wave of contagions before the end of 2020.

With the first scene one previews that this year the world-wide economy will record a bending of the -6% and that the rate unemployment in the countries of the OCSE will go up to 9.2% regarding 5.4% in 2019.

If instead a second big wave burst of the pandemic, that it would determine a return to the arrest warrant of the economic activities, would happen a collapse of the -7,6% of the world-wide economy, in order then to go back of +2.8% in 2021. According to the forecasts of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Develop, to the apex of the second big wave of the pandemic the rate unemployment in the economies of the OCSE would more turn out of the double quantity regarding the rate precedence the pandemics and the perspectives of a resumption of the occupation in the 2021 would be insufficient.

The OCSE has evidenced that the impact on the economy of the rigorous ones and relatively been extended limitations to the activities adopted in European Union will be particularly hard. One previews that, if a second big wave will burst of contagions, in the 2020 Gross Domestic Product one of the area of the euro would have to drop of the -11,5%, while it will diminish of beyond the -9% even if it will be avoided to riacutizzare itself of the sanitary crisis, while relatively to the United States it is previewed that - according to the scene - the economy will endure a contraction respective of the -8,5% and of -7,3%. For economy of Japan perspectives is respective of bendings of -7,3% and -6%, while for economies emergent as Brazil, Russia and South Africa, that they face details challenges determined from the pressure on the health systems to which the difficulties caused from a slump in prices of the raw materials join, attend emphasized decrease respective of the -9,1%, -10% and -8,2% if a second big wave of the pandemic happened and the -7,4%, -8% and -7,5% if the sanitary emergency will have term. Less important, instead, the impact on the GDP of China and India, with forecasts of decreases respective of -3,7% and -7,3% in case of second big wave and of -2,6% and -3,7% with the other scene.

The OCSE has perceived that, however, in both the scenes preview that the next phase of resumption, than initially could be fast, will extend however in order much time before it is arrived to pre-pandemic levels of production. Moreover the lascerà crisis trails of long duration, with a decrease of the standards of life, a high rate unemployment and a weakening of the investments. In particular, the loss of places of work in the fields that more than others has suffered the impact from the crisis, as tourism, the hospitality and the entertainment, will above all hit the little qualified workers, the precarious young people and workers.

If, reading these gloomy forecasts, someone it could expect that the OCSE invites the governments to make the possible one in order to reactivate more soon possible the still firm economic activities must be ricredere. "In the current context - it has observed the general secretary of the OCSE, Angel Gurría - the uncertainty is clearly extreme, but the implications of this on the macroeconomic policies are not symmetrical. The decisive politicians - he has found Gurría - were right not to too much linger in introducing emergency measures and now - he has added - they would have to avoid of being too much fast in removing them".

"The way in which the governments they act today - has explained Gurría - post-Covid for the years will model to the world to come. This is true not only on a national level, where the just policies can favor a resilient resumption, inclusive and sustainable, but also relatively to the way in which the countries they cooperate in order to face the total challenges together. The international cooperation, a weakness up to now in the political answer - it has emphasized the general secretary of the OCSE - can create confidence and to have important effects of fallen back positive".

Laurence Boone, head economist of the OCSE, has suggested some initiatives that the governments could adopt in order to limit the impact of the pandemic on the economy and to promote the resumption: "they will be necessary - it has asserted - political extraordinary in order to find the way just in order to go towards the resumption. To restart the economic activities and meanwhile to avoid according to contagion breeding ground demands a flexible and agile decisional process". A specific suggestion in order to help the fields of the economy to address itself towards the resumption leaves however interdicts: Boone, in fact, has advised that the measures of assistance and support currently adopted for the fields more hit the crisis would have to be adapted in order to help the enterprises and new the workers to orient back activity. Who knows that the representatives of the economic categories currently to the collapse of the exhortation turned from the OCSE to the governments think some so that they stimulate companies and workers to abandon these fields, evidently considered incapable or disabled to return to the situation pre-pandemic, since the invitation to evolve themselves or however to pass to new activities this would mean for the overwhelming majority of the companies and the workers of sections as those of tourism, the cited hospitality and the entertainment from the OCSE. The recommendation to progress and to innovate themselves - as more it is adapted to interpret the inducement of the Boone - seems in fact the council to learn to swim given to who it has already the head underwater.

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