The conflict in the Middle East, if it were to prolong with a consequent increase in energy prices, would accentuate the expected slowdown in world trade that will follow Higher-than-expected growth in 2025 driven by the surge of exchanges of products that support artificial intelligence. This was highlighted today by the World Trade Organization in the latest report "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" explaining that the current situation of war crisis, if it were to continue, It would also put pressure on food supplies and the trade in services due to disruptions in travel and transport. However, the outlook could improve if the conflict ended quickly and the boom in spending on artificial intelligence continued.

In particular, the report presents a growth scenario of that excludes energy price shocks and envisages a slowing growth in global trade in goods, which would stand at +1.9% in 2026 compared to +4.6% in 2025, as Normalization of trade is expected following the surge AI-related products and import anticipation to avoid new duties. In addition, it is estimated that the volume of trade of world goods will grow by +2.6% in 2027. Relatively to trade in services, the WTO's forecasting analysis relating to in the baseline scenario estimates that their growth will slow to +4.8% in 2026 after the increase of +5.3% recorded in 2025, due to then accelerate again to +5.1% in 2027. Overall, it is expects trade in goods and services to grow by +2.7% in 2014 2026 compared to +4.7% in 2025. It is also envisaged that the World gross domestic product growth will moderate slightly from +2.9% in 2025 to +2.8% both in 2026 and in 2027.

In the baseline scenario, Asia is expected to record The fastest growth in goods imports in 2026 (+3.3%), followed by Africa (+3.2%), South America (+2.5%), Europe (+1.3%) and the Middle East (+1.0%). In this scenario, imports of goods from North America would remain stable (+0.3%), while those of the Commonwealth of Independent States would contract (-2.0%). On the goods export front, Asia is expected to experience the fastest growth in Europe again. all regions (+3.5%), as well as South America (+3.5%), followed by North America (+1.4%), CIS (+1.3%) and Africa (+1.2%). On the other hand, exports of goods from the Middle East would slow down sharply (+0.6%), while European ones would continue to stagnate (+0.5%). In 2026, the least developed countries would record a growth in imports of goods of +4.5% and a growth in of goods exports by +2.9%.

A second scenario outlined by the WTO is based on on the assumption that crude oil and natural gas prices remain high throughout 2026 and this - explains the ratio - would reduce by 0.3 percentage points the forecast of the GDP for 2026. This in turn would reduce by 0.5 points percentages the forecast of trade in goods for this year and up to one percentage point for regions dependent on energy imports. This would mean that, in the Against a backdrop of high energy prices, this year the volumes of world trade in goods would grow by only +1.4%. Even the trade in services would grow at a slower rate equal to to +4.1% in 2026.

The WTO report highlights that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with a maritime traffic that crosses it that is collapsed from 138 merchant ships a day to almost zero, as well as crude oil and LNG, has also disrupted the supply of essential for global agriculture, causing an increase in price. The Persian Gulf region, in fact, is a major exporter of both energy and fertilizers and - notes the document - a prolonged interruption of supplies could have knock-on impacts on food systems, exacerbating the effect of pre-existing restrictions export. In addition to Iran - the report specifies - the States such as Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia export together significant amounts of fertilizers, including urea and ammonia, with about a third of the world's supply transiting through through the Strait of Hormuz. Some important manufacturers agricultural farmers are therefore particularly exposed to this crisis. The interruption of natural gas exports and the consequent price increases - the document specifies - could also affect the production of ammonia, which is a compound essential for the production of nitrogen fertilizers throughout the world.

The report highlights that major manufacturers Agricultural industries such as India, Thailand and Brazil depend on the Gulf 40%, 70% and 35% of their imports respectively of urea. In addition, the ongoing conflict in the region represents a challenge also for the food supplies of the Member States Gulf that are dependent on imports that are it averages 75% for rice and exceeds 90% for corn, soybeans and Vegetable oils: raw materials that would suffer an increase in costs having to be found through alternative routes.

In the scenario of high energy prices, regions net importers of fuels, such as Asia and Europe, including high energy price scenario and baseline would be those that would suffer the greatest cuts in the growth of the imports of goods. Net export economies fuels that are still able to export would enjoy in higher revenues and therefore higher growth in imports.

WTO economists explained that, however, there is a growth potential if the conflict were to be short duration and whether the expenditure related to artificial intelligence should remain high throughout 2026 and 2027. In that case, Growth in trade in goods could increase by 0.5 points percentages reaching an increase of +2.4% this year and +2.7% in 2027. But it is also possible that both upside and downside risks, with energy prices that remain high and with AI-enabling goods trading which continues to grow. In this case, in 2026 the growth of the trade in goods could approach the baseline scenario.

"The prospects - commented the director general of World Trade Organization, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala - reflect the resilience of the global trade, supported by trade in high-quality products technology and digital services, from the adaptations of the and avoiding reciprocal retaliation on duties. However, this basic prediction is put to the test by the conflict in the Middle East. A prolonged price increase energy costs could increase risks to global trade, with potential spill-over effects on food security and pressure on costs for consumers and businesses. Nevertheless, the members of the WTO - stressed - can help mitigate the impact and Alleviate the economic burden on people around the world maintaining predictable trade policies and strengthening the resilience of supply chains".