The UNCTAD analyzes the impact of the coronavirus on the containerized marine transports



According to the Conference of the United Nations on the Commerce and Development (UNCTAD), even if it is too soon in order to estimate the effects on the economy and the commerce of the epidemic of the coronavirus, however it is already possible to find of a potential impact on the manifacturing production and the traffics of producing oil of China as - it has specified the organ of the UN - the regarding data of the marine transport the position in real time of the ships and the information on the goods that transports by sea show already a change of the operating activity of the portacontenitori ships and the transported producing amount of oil.

That, as admitted from the UNCTAD, it is premature to verify the impact of the epidemic of the virus on the marine exchanges of China with foreign country is sure because it is passed too much little time from when the same China and the international community has had perception is of the dangerousness of the contagion for the health is of its possible repercussions on the social and economic activities, but also because this period is coincided with the festivity for the Chinese New Year's Day that this year is celebrated on 25 January, recurrence generally that it falls between on 21 January and on 20 February and it previews traditionally a festive period of two weeks. This does so as, for example, than in February the volume of traffic of the container enlivened from the Chinese ports it is by far less consisting respect to other months of the year and they return it the period less indicative in order to estimate eventual changes of the tendency of the commercial exchanges.

In its analysis the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development evidences that, relatively to the portacontainer, the ports of call of this type of ships to the Chinese ports, which counted in number of previewed ports of call and the correspondent cargo total ability of these container ships from 20 ' (teu), drastically is dropped between the end of January and the beginning of February. Meanwhile the relationship between the cancelled ports of call, that is those which had been programmed but they are then not carried out, remarkablly has grown to levels that normally are found to the end of February and March.

The UNCTAD finds that generally the navigation companies program a reduction of the ability to the containerized services with China in the next weeks to the period of two weeks of vacations of the lunar New Year's Day and that in that period it increases the number of cancelled harbour ports of call. Before the vacations - the UNCTAD explains - usually the shippers order with advance payment the goods in sight of the decrease of the Chinese manifacturing production, with the effect also to reduce lessened the number of cancelled ports of call. According to the surveys of the UNCTAD, this year the slow down of the marine traffic, with a number smaller of programmed ports of call and a greater number of cancelled ports of call, is happening much first and this is happening even if many airlines have announced the cancellation of flights diminishing in such a way the ability to aerial transport of the goods and forcing therefore the producers to make use of the marine transport also in order to send goods of sensitive higher value and than goods to the factor time.

The precise UNCTAD that the reduction of the ports of call is a phenomenon that is happening not single in China, but all over the world since from last August the companies of navigation they are reducing the ability to programmed hold on the majority of the marine routes as the commercial wars in existence determines a bending of the world-wide question of cargo ability. The UNCTAD emphasizes that this decrease quickly has a meaningful acceleration in the second half of January and at the beginning of February. This - the UNCTAD explains - is consequence of the centrality of China regarding the circulation all over the world of the goods: if the Chinese ports do not load or unload container, for the ships not there is reason to call at the port. The consequences of this on the volume of goods effectively loaded and unloaded in the Chinese ports, however, will be able to be known only in the next few months: the Ministry of Transportation of Beijing, in fact, has not still been profitable notices the volumes of enlivened containerized traffics from the national ports to January 2020, since usually it is communicated in the second half of the next month, with the possibility that this year also the information on the harbour containerized trade relative to the months of February and March reach behind schedule. The UNCTAD evidences that also the increasing phenomenon of naval gigantism in the segment of the portacontainer is another factor at stake, as now a cancelled port of call has an emphasized impact more on the ability available.

The UNCTAD has examined also the marine traffic of producing oil with China as also in this within the Asian nation carries out a crucial role since is an important source of question of refined producing crude oil and offer of oil. Remembering that the crude oil is transported according to agreements in the long term, the UNCTAD finds that, as attended, at the moment this flow of exchanges it seems unchanged being even if signs of tensions to valley of the chain of value of the oil begin to perceive themselves. Specifying that a way in order to quickly identify the changes in the world-wide question of producing oil is to measure the cargo amount that is transported by the ships, as the reduction of the question induces the producers to on board send less cargos reducing the quantitative one of oil of the ships, the UNCTAD explains that, using this parameter, the fuel for airplane evidence to be itself the first producing oil one transported that it shows slow down signs because of the coronavirus epidemic. By the beginning of the year - the UNCTAD announces - jet fuel in transit is diminished of the -2% regarding the same period of 2019 and the reduction, taking to reference as beginning of the period on January 10, 2020 when to total level account of the amplitude of the spread of the contagion has become us mainly, the bending has been of the -5%, decrease - the UNCTAD evidences - that must be estimated on the background of steady increase in existence in last the five years of the fuel question for airplane, that constitutes the segment in more fast increase of the market of the oil produced ones and it is supported by the question of aerial transport.

Relatively to the oil produced ones, the precise UNCTAD that another indicator is constituted by the cargo amount on board of the inactive ships. Cargo storage on not operating ships - the UNCTAD finds - can increase because of to operating factors as the congestion of the ports or delays which had to the bad weather, but also because the question is diminished while the ship was navigating from the cargo port to that of drainage. The UNCTAD explains that, using this indicator, it is observed that if the naphta volume in transit turns out stable during the same period, the fuel amount stoccato on inactive ships instead has grown breathtakingly. The UNCTAD clarifies that the trend of the volume of marine naphta transports constitutes an approximate indicator of the evolution of the industrial activity as the naphta is used among other things in order to heat the furnaces of the factories let alone as fuel of truck and small ships. This indicates - the UNCTAD observes - a reduction of the naphta question in spite of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has introduced from a first last January more restrictive limit of the sulfur tenor in the fuel, that it would have had to involve an increase of the prices under pressure placing supplyings, while instead, after some weeks from the effectiveness of the new norms, this has not happened. According to the UNCTAD, this is explained with the weakening of the question by the traditional terrestrial diesel market, with the epidemic of the coronavirus that has ulteriorly reduced the question, in particular in China, and with the fact that the refineries stoccando more produce on ship.