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24 October 2020 The on-line newspaper devoted to the world of transports 05:17 GMT+2

October 6, 2020

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Original news
The WTO expects the volume of trade this year will decrease by -9.2%

In 2021, we expect growth of 7.2%, lower than earlier forecast increase of 21.3%

The World Trade Organization (WTO) expects this year global trade volume will fall by -9.2%, while next year it is expected to see growth in the 7.2%, estimates which, however, - the organisation said international -- are subject to an unusually high degree of uncertainty as they depend on the evolution of the pandemic Covid-19 and the measures taken by governments to contain it.

This is a decline of -9.2% compared to the -12.9% projected for 2020 in the most optimistic put by the WTO last April. In particular - explained the organization - the significant business performance recorded in the past months of June and July brought some signs of optimism, growth that has been driven by the trade in products to deal with the pandemic.

If the forecast for 2020 is less pessimistic than growth of 7.2% expected by the WTO in 2021 on the other hand, it is less than the 21.3% increase expected in previously by the international organization, which shows that the Next year, the growth trend of world trade will be so well below that before the pandemic.

The WTO also again compared the decline in trade trade industry this year due to the pandemic 2008-2009 due to the financial crisis noting that the economic environment that characterizes the two periods is very different: in the current recession - he explained the WTO - the contraction of the world's gross domestic product has been much more pronounced, while the decline in trade has been more moderate; of As a result, the organisation noted, the volume of trade world goods are expected to fall by only about twice the size of GDP exchange rates, rather than six times as much as happened in the 2009 crisis. The different scenario this year caused by the health crisis -- specified the WTO -- has a lot to do with the nature of the pandemic and the policies adopted to counter it, with blockades and restrictions on travel in national economies have imposed constraints supply-side, drastically reducing the number of production and employment in sectors that are usually resistant to fluctuations in the economic cycle, particularly in the non-commercial services. At the same time, the WTO noted, monetary and fiscal policies have supported incomes, allowing consumption and imports to bounce back once loosened the blocks.

According to the WTO, the fact that the ongoing recovery may be will depend on the strength of the investment and employment, drivers that could be significantly slowed down in case the trust is compromised by the exacerbation of the pandemic. "The incidence of Covid-19 global level - highlighted the Deputy Director-General of the WTO, Yi Xiaozhun - has decreased since its peak of spring, but continues to be tenaciously high in many regions. Trade has played a key role in the response to pandemics, allowing nations to ensure access to essential medical supplies. The trade has also facilitated new ways of working during the crisis with the supply of products and services information technology. In the aftermath of the pandemic -- he underlined Xiaozhun - one of the biggest risks to the economy would be a turn towards protectionism. To go international cooperation is key and the WTO it's the perfect place to resolve any conflicts trade issues that have been on hold since the crisis.'

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