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04 December 2021 The on-line newspaper devoted to the world of transports 19:04 GMT+1



November 15, 2021

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Original news
World trade under the sword of Damocles of the pandemic

The WTO warns that Covid-19 continues to represent the biggest threat

The storm that has hit world trade in the wake of the global spread of the Covid-19 pandemic it may not be behind you at all. The barometer hand of world trade conceived by World Trade Organization as a useful indicator to provide information in time real on the trend of trade is not in fact turning definitely towards good weather, but indicates a state of variability that, as a result of a possible pressure drop determined perhaps from a resurgence of the pandemic, it could return to report the approach of a new disturbance, even intense.

The latest barometer reading of 99.5 is close to the value base of 100 of the index, but far from the previous reading record of 110.4 last August. The latter - specified the WTO - reflected both the strength of the trade recovery and the severity of the pandemic-induced shock last year. The World Trade Organization explained that the current return of the barometer hand towards bad weather was determined by the recent dysfunctions of the global supply chain, with the occurrence of slowdowns in port operations caused by the increase in import demand in the first half of the year and with the interruption of the production of widely used goods such as cars and Semiconductors. Also currently it seems that it is occurring also a decline in the demand for trade, with a decline in export orders. Noting that the attenuation of demand of imports could help alleviate congestion Port, however, the WTO has specified that it considers it unlikely that delays and bottlenecks that slow down traffic are eliminated as long as containerized traffic continues to rise to record levels.

The WTO explained that in the last period all the indices of the barometer components decreased, reflecting a relevant loss of momentum in global trade in goods. The most marked was recorded by the index of products automotive (85.9), which fell below the trend as semiconductor shortages have hampered the production of vehicles all over the world. This deficiency has also reflected on the index of electronic components (99.6), gone from above the trend to be in line with the trend. Even the indices relating to containerised maritime transport (100.3) and to raw materials (100.0) have returned to position themselves in proximity of their recent trends. Only the index of the air transport (106.1) remained well above the trend and this - explained the WTO - is happening because freight forwarders are looking for modes of transport alternatives to maritime transport.

The WTO has clarified that in any case the last reading of the barometer is broadly consistent with your latest trend forecast of world trade on 4 October, which estimated a growth in global trade volume of +10.8% in 2021 - compared to +8.0% expected in March - followed by an increase of +4.7% in 2022. However, the World Trade Organization pointed out that these Outlook continues to be threatened by significant risks downwards due to the persistence of inequalities at the level regional, the continued weakness of trade in services and the delay of vaccination campaigns for Covid-19, in particularly in poor countries. Covid-19 - underlined the WTO - continues to pose the greatest threat to prospects for trade, as new waves of infections they could easily undermine the recovery.





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