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04 December 2021 The on-line newspaper devoted to the world of transports 17:13 GMT+1

November 16, 2021

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Any normalization of the value of the no-use could take from 18 to 30 months

Sea-Intelligence analysis on the evolution of tariffs before the pandemic

For the Danish consulting firm Sea-Intelligence, which analyses the containerised maritime transport market, the possible normalization of the value of sea freight could take 18 to 30 months. The estimate is based on the study the evolution of the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), the weekly index of maritime tariffs for shipments of containers from the main Chinese ports.

Sea-Intelligence examined the evolution of the index in the pre-pandemic phase by identifying five periods in which you are verified a prolonged decrease in the value of the no-use, with a weekly decline rate between -0.4% and -0.9%, and five periods in which there were significant increases in maritime tariffs. Considering that a normal level of the value of noli is around the 1000 level of the index, which represents a decrease of -69% compared to the current level of no-use, Sea-Intelligence found that during the financial crisis World Cup of 2008-2009 the number of hations decreased faster compared to a weekly decline of -0.9% and, applying this rate of decline to the current level of no-shipping, he deduced that there was they would like 18 months to return to a normal level. The company specified that if, on the other hand, the rate of decrease corresponded at the average recorded in the five periods of decline in the number of rentals, the normalization would take up to 26 months, but, being the current much more sustained increase in the value of the number of contracts than first, this should be taken into account and this would lead to 30 months the period necessary to return to a normal value of Noli.

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