In 2021, after a decline of -3.8% in 2020, international trade by sea recorded a recovery and the world fleet of merchant vessels transported a total of 10.98 billion tons of cargo, with one estimated growth of 3.2% percent on the previous year. The trend of the shipping industry in the course of 2021 is illustrated in the "Review of Maritime Transport 2022" of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), a document that highlights how the maritime traffic realized last year it was slightly below pre-Covid-19 levels, with a total that in 2019 it had been 11.07 billion tons of cargo carried by ships. The analysis by UNCTAD notes that the 2021 percent decline from the previous period of the world health crisis was determined as trade was still hampered by the prolonged effects of the pandemic as well as by a unprecedented blockade in global logistics caused by a strong recovery in demand and severe shortages of capacity from the supply side.

The report said that in 2021, growth was driven mainly by increased demand for containerized goods. If the bulk of the bulk of the bulk carriers were 2.95 billion tonnes last year, a slight increase of 1.2% percent on 2020, and solid bulk meltings stood at 3.27 billion tonnes, with a more marked rise than the average. + 2.4%, the other goods, consisting essentially of containerized goods and other miscellaneous goods, totaled 4.76 billion tons, an increase of 5.1% percent on 2020.

In 2021, in addition, similarly to what happened for the shipping volumes carried, the number of ships ' airports at ports also marked a recovery compared to a port congestion that had no history, particularly in the United States, in Europe and in China. In North Europe-the analysis-some shipping companies, trying to increase efficiency, reduced the number of port scans by rotation and this pushed up the volume of trade in goods in a single stopover, " the survey said. prolonging working hours in the port terminals and putting pressure on the main ports. The effects of congestion and dysfunction of the maritime-port supply chain have been propagated in a wide range of sectors such as car production, healthcare and electronics, in particular due to a serious shortage of semiconductors. Since the beginning of logistical dysfunctions at the end of 2020 there has been an overall global decline in the connectivity of liner shipping, albeit with variations between nations. The world's most connected country has remained China, which has expanded its advantage, while India has extended its regional connections by boosting port capacity. Similarly, in North Africa the continued development of port infrastructure has helped to mitigate the impact of the pandemic. These gains have been offset by the decline in connectivity in other world areas, including major economies. In the United States of America, for example, the operational performance of container ports has been undermined by the weakness of the West Coast's port infrastructure due to long-term investments. insufficient. But the picture has also been worse in some parts of the developing world, with most of Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean having undergone significant reductions in direct maritime links.

In 2021, then, the resumption of trade compared with a low growth in the naval fleet : the global commercial fleet grew by less than three percent, the second lowest percentage change since 2005. The fastest increase in the fleet, driven by global gas demand, was that of liquefied gas transport ships, followed by container carriers and bulk carriers. The UNCTAD analysis notes that since 2011 the naval fleet has been aging : by number of ships the current average age is 21.9 years and by cargo capacity of 11.5 years. The bulk carriers remain the youngest ships with an average age of 11.1 years, followed by the container carriers with 13.7 years and oil tankers with 19.7 years. The document specifies that the average age of ships has increased in part because, especially in the area of liquid and solid bulk bulk carriers, shipowners were uncertain about future technological developments and the most affordable fuels their ships could have used it, as well as with regard to changes in regulations and carbon prices. In order to benefit from the current high values of noli and rentals, they have therefore retained their oldest ships in service. In 2020, in terms of tons of gross tonnage, deliveries of ships decreased, while in 2021 they increased by 5.2% percent. However, the shipbuilding volumes remain below the levels of 2014-2017.

The study by the United Nations body also takes a look at sea freight trends by recalling that in 2021 the shortage of maritime transport capacity and the continuing disruptions caused by Covid-19, combined with a rebound in the volumes of the trade, brought container transport fares to record levels and by mid-2021 the nils had reached a peak four times higher than pre-pandemic levels. The UNCTAD analysis notes that containerized shipping companies have also faced extra expenses, but they have nevertheless been able to record record profits.

As for the future developments in the shipping industry, UNCTAD predicts that in 2022, the growth of maritime trade will moderate to 1.4% and that in 2023-2027, maritime traffic will expand with an annual average of 2.1% percent, a lower rate than the average of 3.3% percent of the previous three decades. With containerized maritime traffic alone, UNCTAD expects this segment of shipping, which for many years has been the fastest growing shipping sector, in 2022 to grow by a modest 1.2% percent, before rising to a barely more relevant 1.9% in 2023. The UNCTAD analysis specifies that the deceleration of containerized sea transport growth is not only a consequence of the blockades induced by the pandemic, but also of the relevant adverse macroeconomic conditions combined with a weakening of the Chinese economy. Moreover, in the face of rising inflation and the cost of living, consumers will spend less, shifting to a certain extent spending from goods to services.

Among the factors that can continue to have an impact on maritime transport is the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine : the Russian Federation, in the face of sanctions imposed by Western nations over the invasion of Ukrainian territory, is looking for alternative markets, while European importers are looking at other sources of supply than the Russian ones. The analysis highlights the likelihood that even the demand in terms of tons-miles will increase as African countries are replenishment of wheat from more distant locations.

Meanwhile in 2022, congestion and logistical problems persist. In 2016-2019 the port congestion had caused the blockade in ports of about 32% percent of the capacity of the global container fleet, but in July 2022-it underscored the UNCTAD's analysis-the percentage had reached 37% percent. In the spring of 2022 China's zero-Covid policy led to blockades in Shenzhen and Shanghai, two of the nation's largest productive and commercial centers, inducing maritime carriers to divert their ships to alternative ports such as Ningbo. To fill the gaps determined by ship redistribution to the most profitable east-west trade routes, Asian regional maritime carriers have launched new intra-Asian services or upgraded existing networks to offer scallops additional.

With respect to the value of line-containerized services, the study said that at the beginning of 2022, container shipping fees remained high and volatile, although they started to decline in the second quarter of the year. The future value of the noli will depend on a number of factors that can either have an effect or may have a combined effect, and this according to UNCTAD suggests higher volatility and a global trend. down in some segments. These factors include increased uncertainty regarding the demand, the extent of port congestion, potential new supply chain disruptions, and the effects of the war in Ukraine, including the increase in bunker costs.

The document specifies that at the beginning of 2022 the value of the noli had already begun to decline relatively to some shipping lanes and a drastic downturn has occurred since mid-year : in four weeks, between August and September, it occurred. a double-digit decline and by the third week of September the Shanghai Container Freight Index had fallen by almost 60% percent. The value of noli, however, is more than double the value of pre-pandemic averages, the study said. The UNCTAD document specifies that it can be expected that container shipping fees will decrease further as trade exchanges normalize and newly built ships will enter the market. However-the study-the transport tariffs and their volatility will be increasingly affected by environmental regulations, with the Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI) and Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) of the International Maritime Organization that will enter into force in 2023 for all types of ships. According to the study, these measures will likely have the effect of reducing maritime transport capacity since they will injure ship carriers to operate ships with a slower speed of navigation to save fuel and also will lead to the need for some ships to be adapted to the new regulations or are intended for demolition.