The European Shipowners Association | ECSA has published a new study showing that the maritime sector contributes double share to the European Union's ETS emissions, and calls on Parliament and the Council to to triple the ETS revenues allocated to the new mechanism SMAP (Sustainable Maritime Alternative Propulsion) which is part of of the revision of the ETS proposed last July by the European Commission ( of 17 July 2026).

Shipping has been covered by the ETS since January 1, 2024 and from 2026, after the phase-in period has ended, of shipping must surrender allowances for 100% of emissions within the system. The study underlines that the maritime, unlike steel, cement, chemical and aviation, has never received free allowances: he must buy them all on the market, and highlights that shipping accounts for about 10% of the emissions, but buys around 90 million allowances per year, Almost 20% of all those auctioned. At a price of 100 euros per share - the authors specify - are about nine billion euros per year. Despite this contribution, according to the study the current ETS revenue framework does not guarantee support corresponding to the decarbonization of shipping.

With regard to SMAP, the study recalls that the mechanism does not provides for direct payments and would allocate quotas to the that use sustainable fuels and technologies, covering a part of the cost gap with conventional fuels. The monetary value of the units would cover 55% of the residual price for biogas and advanced biofuels, 80% for hydrogen and low-carbon fuels, 90% for renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBOs) and 90% of the additional costs of technologies. The study points out that sustainable marine fuels cost on average four times as much as technologies, including energy efficiency, involve significant additional costs. According to the study, the problem is the size of the reserve: 110 million allowances for the entire period 2028-2040. Distributed in are about 8.5 million per year, less than 10% of the sector. The study notes a further Uncertainty: Support rates are not guaranteed, because if requests exceed the reserve, support for each is reduced proportionately.

The heart of the study is the model with which ECSA estimates the minimum resource requirements to reduce the cost gap between conventional and sustainable fuels. It starts with an annual demand of energy of 27.5 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) for ships in the ETS perimeter and applies a deployment of sustainable fuels and technologies in 2028-2040. The path is based on the objectives of the European FuelEU regulation Maritime and the projections of the impact assessment of the European Commission. For each fuel, the gap in remaining price, the provided support rate shall apply and converts the result into shares, at a fixed price of 100 euros. The the same applies to technologies, estimated from marginal costs of abatement. The result is that at least 330 million euros are needed quotas, three times the proposed 110 million allowances. The gap is of around 220 million. In financial terms, €33 billion of support against 11 billion with the Commission's proposal. In the the sector would return about 1.17 billion of €117 billion. The proposed reserve would represent 9%, that requested by ECSA 28%. The study notes, therefore, that even with 330 million allowances, less than a third of them of the sector's contribution would return to finance its decarbonisation of maritime transport.

The authors of the study admit the limitations of the model used: fuel prices, production capacity and deployment remain uncertain, and the Commission has yet to finalise the methodology for the price differential, including the weight of the incentives already provided for by ETS and FuelEU. For technologies uncertainty is greater, due to a lack of data on costs, potential and emission reductions. In addition, the model excludes bonuses provided for island routes, for certain raw materials and for The technologies installed in European shipyards: a choice that - explain - reduces the estimated requirement compared to a scenario in to which the bonuses apply. The figure of 330 million shares is therefore presented as a minimum.

The shipowners' association therefore asks to triple at least the ETS revenues allocated to SMAP, to give a "signal of market and help the sector achieve the FuelEU Maritime 2040 target. The Secretary General of ECSA, Sotiris Raptis, said that the mechanism can contribute to the transition of shipping only if "sized on the scale of the challenge' and whether it covers all the technologies that save carbon.