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19 de junio de 2024 - Año XXVIII
Periódico independiente sobre economía y política de transporte
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CENTRO INTERNAZIONALE STUDI CONTAINERSANNO XXXVIII - Numero SETTEMBRE 2020

MARITIME TRANSPORT

CONTAINER RATES ARE ON FIRE. HOW CAN YOU INVEST IN THAT?

Containers have wrestled the ocean-shipping headlines away from tankers and bulkers as stratospheric China-to-California box rates approach $4,000 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU). Container shipping, declares a glowing new report by Fearnleys Securities, is "The Unsung Hero."

How can investors expose themselves to this historic trans-Pacific rate spike? Can box stocks woo tanker and bulker shareowners? And what do the curiously low prices of some container equities say about sentiment toward a U.S. recovery?

FreightWaves interviewed four shipping analysts to delve into these questions. Their responses highlight significant differences between investing in container shipping versus bulk commodity shipping.

They also point to opportunities for investors and traders to ride today's container wave.

Liner exposure

In tanker and dry bulk shipping, the ship owner is generally U.S.-listed and extremely leveraged to highly volatile daily spot freight rates. Theoretically, there should be a clear, direct link between spot rates and stock prices.

The link is not so clear in container shipping. According to the Freightos Baltic Daily Index, spot rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast (SONAR: FBXD.CNAW) were up to $3,835 per FEU as of Monday. The liner companies are the direct beneficiaries of these soaring spot rates.


However, most liners have more long-term contract business than spot business, and many own diversified logistics platforms. Meanwhile, almost all public liner companies are listed in Europe and Asia, not the U.S.; the only U.S.-listed liner, Matson (NYSE: MATX), is primarily in the domestic Jones Act trade.

Investing in global liner giant Maersk - which has two classes of stock listed in Copenhagen and some thinly traded American depositary receipts (ADRs) in the U.S. (OTC: AMKBY) - is a very different proposition than, for example, buying Nordic American Tankers (NYSE: NAT) shares on Robinhood.


Investors can also buy liner exposure through U.S.-dollar-denominated bonds.

The prize goes to those who had the intestinal fortitude to buy bonds of French liner CMA CGM at "peak fear" in March, when those notes were trading at 55 cents on the dollar. They're now close to par (100 cents).

Leasing: 'Not particularly sexy'

The primary way U.S. investors buy exposure to container shipping is not through liners but via common and preferred shares of leasing companies: ship owners that charter (rent) vessels to liners and container-equipment owners that rent boxes to liners.

"It's kind of a boring business," acknowledged Ben Nolan, analyst at Wells Fargo, referring to containership leasing. "They're not particularly sexy," echoed Michael Webber, founder of Webber Research & Advisory, of box-equipment lessors.

According to Randy Giveans, analyst at Jefferies, "When you look at tankers, there's a lot more volatility in rates. More boom and bust. With container shipping, utilization may move around a couple of percentage points, and in normal times - and obviously this year is not normal - rates stay in a pretty tight band. Plus, there are a lot more vessels on long-term charters in the container market than in tankers and dry bulk. Container shipping is more like a conveyor belt moving goods from Asia to the U.S. and Europe.

"This year has been different. Because of COVID and the massive supply and demand shocks to containers, it has been quite a ride," said Giveans. "But usually, the driver for containers is much more about global GDP. And the drivers for tankers and dry bulk are more about geopolitical events and weather and shocks to supply and demand."

Tanker and bulker stocks are generally more casino-esque than the container stocks - and shipping investors have been more drawn to the excitement of the casinos. Quite a few tanker stock buyers have had a very exciting albeit very unprofitable year in 2020.

The case for ship lessors

The U.S-listed containership lessors (otherwise known as tonnage providers) include Seaspan owner Atlas Corp (NYSE: ATCO), Costamare (NYSE: CMRE), Global Ship Lease (NYSE: GSL), Danaos Corp. (NYSE: DAC), Capital Product Partners (NYSE: CPLP), Navios Containers (NASDAQ: NMCI), Navios Partners (NYSE: NMM) and Euroseas (NASDAQ: ESEA).
"There's a lot of misunderstanding of what these stocks are," said J Mintzmyer, analyst at Seeking Alpha's Value Investors Edge (disclosure: Mintzmyer owns long positions in several containership leasing stocks).

"This is just like aircraft leasing. Yes, there is a ship and someone is steering the ship. But these are not actually shipping companies.

"This is equipment leasing," he explained. "When the liner industry is very healthy and counterparty risk goes toward zero and interest rates are down, the value of the lease goes up."

Several analysts now argue that these stocks have not recovered as much as they should have, contending that investors who buy in now could pocket upside as the stocks catch up (even more so after the recent days' sell-off).

These stocks have two main drivers, both of which are heavily leveraged to the coronavirus. One is the counterparty risk of the liners that charter the ships. In periods of crisis, liners have defaulted and given the ships back. They have also renegotiated the rates lower.

The second driver is charter maturities. If a lessor has ships on 10-year charters, what's happening with charter rates this month is irrelevant. But for a lessor with multiple charters expiring soon, today's charter rates are highly relevant.

Charter rates, bond prices rebound

When liners "blanked" (canceled) double-digit percentages of capacity from Asia to Europe and the U.S. during the second quarter, they needed a lot fewer ships. Liners own a portion of their fleet and charter the rest from tonnage providers. In crisis periods when they need fewer ships, and a charter expires, they'll either not renew or only renew at much lower rates.

During coronavirus, charter rates fell precipitously, by 25-40%. Counterparty risks escalated. The stocks of the containership lessors would logically sink on this combination - and they did.

Then, things went off-script. U.S. cargo demand was much higher than expected and all the blanked capacity was reinstated. Survivability fears about CMA CGM and other liners dissipated as big second-quarter profits were reported. Bonds recovered.

Containership time-charter rates jumped all the way back to where they were before the crisis began, in some cases higher. Alphaliner reported Tuesday that rates for classic Panamaxes (4,000-5,299 twenty-foot equivalent units) are now garnering their highest rates since 2011 - up to $20,000 a day.

And yet, the stock prices of the containership lessors have not followed suit. They're still down in the 30-40% range year to date.


According to Mintzmyer, "You can put up charts of all these different things. The CMA bonds. The GSL bonds. Charter rates. Maersk's stock. Matson's stock. The stocks of box lessors, companies like CAI (NYSE: CAI). They're all correlated. January: great. February, March: horrendous. Then recovery. But if you look at the containership lessors, they're still all much closer to their 52-week lows."

Ship-lessor stocks left behind

Nolan at Stifel has been pointing out this disparity since mid-August, dubbing containership leasing companies "the single most compelling investment opportunity in traditional shipping segments."

Nolan told FreightWaves, "You haven't seen the same degree of follow-through [with prices] with respect to the ship-lessor equities. The counterparty risk is off the table. The [charter] rollover risk is less severe. The duration of time charters is going up.

"The bonds have really rerated. So, either credit investors [who bid up bonds such as CMA CGM's] are ahead of the curve or they've missed something. Either there's a risk the bonds need to come down or some of these equities need to come up."'

Battle for eyeballs'

There are at least two reasons the ship-lessor stocks haven't recovered. One could be that there's not enough interest - these stocks just aren't sexy enough. Another could be that there are legitimate fears about the U.S. recovery.

"I think it's mostly a lack of air time," said Mintzmyer. "If you look at tankers, what got those stocks moving was companies speaking on CNBC and analysts talking about those stocks."

Webber cited the "uphill battle for eyeballs" for these stocks.

Nolan agreed that the container stocks have lacked attention. "Capital for shipping is transient. Either it's there or it's not. And right now, it's not. It doesn't really matter what you think from a valuation perspective until there's a catalyst to get people to want to look at it again. The question is: At what point is there a catalyst? Maybe it will be [third-quarter] earnings. That's my best guess at the moment."

Lag effect

Giveans and Nolan both said a lag between the surge in liner spot container rates and containership lessor stock prices made sense.

"When you see $4,000-per-FEU rates, the liners get that cash immediately, whereas on the ship-charter side, the activity is few and far between so you wouldn't see an immediate uplift [in charter income]," said Giveans.

"It sort of makes sense that these [ship-leasing] equities would lag because they're kind of the tip of the spear relative to the liner companies," added Nolan.

"When there's excess capacity, the liners can lay off equipment and still do reasonably well and the lessors bear the brunt of that impact. Then, if the market begins to recover a bit for the liners, it doesn't necessarily have to translate [immediately] into a stronger market for the lessors."

But this raises the question: If stocks are inherently forward-looking and efficient, the market should be able to account for the charter-rate recovery as well as when lessors' charters will expire (and reap the benefits of the rate recovery), then reprice the stocks. If that's not happening, perhaps the market is pricing in a faltering U.S. economic recovery?

Trouble ahead?

"The wild card here is that I don't think anybody can say with high conviction that demand is going to be great for however long," said Nolan. "It's surprisingly good now, but we're not there yet."

"I think there are a lot of questions about the sustainability of demand," said Giveans. "Container rates are certainly going to come down as inventories get restocked and demand doesn't rebound as quickly as many people had hoped."

"I think it reflects trepidation around the future," said Webber. "I agree that you would have thought there'd be more of a recovery [in the containership lessor stocks]. But I also think the markets are consciously or subconsciously inferring a degree of credit risk."

Betting on box lessors instead

With containership lessors, said Webber, "the market exposure is lumpy because you have bigger chunks of cash flow rolling off at different times [due to charter expirations]. This can overlap with the refi [debt refinancing] cycle, and all of a sudden you get stuck."

Webber believes a better way to invest in the container-shipping space is to buy stocks in the box-equipment lessors that own containers and rent them to liners (as with ships, liner companies own a portion of their box fleet and rent the rest). These companies include Triton (NYE: TRTN), CAI and Textainer (NYSE: TGH).


"They're more liquid [than shipping container stocks]. And they don't have these waves of new supply that obfuscate what's going on from a sector dynamics perspective like you do in shipping," Webber explained.

It takes two years to build a ship but only six to eight weeks to build a container. In practice, this means box supply is more closely calibrated with demand than ship supply. It's less likely for capacity owners to overshoot.

"These [box-equipment lessor] stocks offer a better real-time gauge of what's actually happening from a trade perspective, and they're closer as a real-time indicator to the container lines themselves," argued Webber.

Investor interest still tepid

FreightWaves asked the analysts whether the recent publicity on container-shipping spot rates is bringing more investors into the fold.

Mintzmyer is enthusiastic. "It's so weird that nobody is talking about this. I think container ships are the most interesting of all the shipping sectors," he said.

"We have certainly had some calls," reported Giveans. "But mostly from people who were already interested in container ships. It's more legacy investors who had been on the sidelines and are now saying, 'Oh my goodness, this market is actually good. We have something positive here. How long can this last?'

According to Nolan, "Whether this is inventory restocking or stimulus spending or whatever, clearly something is going on. It has raised some eyebrows. People are looking at it as a non-energy, non-tech way to play the COVID-19 recovery. But it's certainly not like my phone is ringing off the hook." Click for more FreightWaves/American Shipper articles by Greg Miller

freightwaves.com



Se elevan a 88 las empresas asociadas a Assiterminal
Génova
Composición de siete nuevas empresas
Hermanos Cosulich adquirió el genovés Slavetti Enzo
Génova
Opera en el sector de la producción y venta de productos de ferretería para la industria naval y náutica
Probable hundimiento del renacimiento Tutor atacado por los hutíes
Portmouth
Señalizado el avistamiento en el mar de escombros y cebos de hidrocarburos
El Consejo de la UE acuerda su posición sobre el nuevo Reglamento sobre la Agencia Europea de Seguridad Marítima
Bruselas
También adoptó el enfoque general sobre el Reglamento sobre el uso de la capacidad de la infraestructura ferroviaria
El Consejo de Estado también ha rechazado el recurso de la compañía petrolera Gioia Tauro
Alegría Tauro
La institución portuaria había rechazado las instancias de concesión presentadas por la empresa
Mitsubishi construcción naval construirá los dos primeros barcos de carga ro-ro japonés a metanol
Japón
Tendrán una capacidad de alrededor de 2.300 vehículos de motor
MSC reestructuración de enlaces entre el Mediterráneo Occidental y Canadá
Ginebra
Fusión de dos servicios
New Mediterranean Service-East Coast USA del MSC
Ginebra
Tendrá frecuencia semanal
El 24 de junio se activará el Sistema Comunitario Portuario de los puertos de Campania
Nápoles
La plataforma digital estará equipada con herramientas adicionales para 2026
En 2023 el tráfico de mercancías en los puertos griegos creció un 1,0%
El Pireo
Pasajeros en crecimiento del 6,4%
El mes pasado el tráfico de contenedores en el puerto de Long Beach disminuyó un -8,2%
Long Beach
En los primeros cinco meses de 2024, hubo un incremento del 10,0%.
En 2023, el volumen de negocios del Servicio Intermodal MIS-Mai creció un 28,5%.
Aquanegra Cremonese
Manejo de 2.3 millones de toneladas de carga
Punta de lanza, llegadas contingentes en el puerto de Genova a una serie de vehículos que realmente se puede servir
Continúa el crecimiento de los precios de la nueva construcción naval
Copenhague
Reducimos la coherencia de la cartera de pedidos de contenedores
En mayo, el tráfico de contenedores en el puerto de Los Ángeles cayó un -3,4% por ciento.
Los Angeles
A la espera de la recuperación del crecimiento en verano
La asamblea de Assagents se celebrará en Génova el 25 de junio.
Génova
Evento titulado " Mari inquieti. Rutas y conflictos: la incognición de los traficantes "
El trabajo de consolidación del primer tanque de la Europa de Darsena ha llegado al 60%.
Livorno
La finalización se espera para finales de año
Piacenza ha dimitido como Comisario Extraordinario del AdSP del Mar de Liguria Occidental
Génova/Roma
El subentra el almirante Massimo Seno
Los medios de la Guardia Costera de Trieste rescatan una motonave del APT Gorizia
Trieste
Rescatados de 76 personas a bordo
El Grupo del Mar italiano ha completado la desinversión del astillero náutico de Viareggio
Marina di Carrara
Se vendió a Next Yacht Group por 21 millones de euros
Eni ha cedido el 10% por ciento del capital social de Saipem.
San Donato Milanese
El contravalor fue de unos 393 millones de euros.
Se ha restaurado la navegabilidad completa en el canal de acceso al puerto de Baltimore
Baltimore
PROXIMAS SALIDAS
Visual Sailing List
Salida
Destinación:
- orden alfabético
- nación
- aréa geogràfica
Assoports y SRM publican una nueva actualización del informe "Port Infographics"
Roma
Centrarse en las operaciones marítimas y las flotas, los combustibles alternativos y el empleo de las mujeres en los puertos
Renovado el Consejo de Administración de las Estaciones Marítimas
Génova
Indicación de la confirmación de Edoardo Monzani al papel de presidente
En mayo los ingresos de Yang Ming y Wan Hai Lines crecieron un 46,2% y un 40,1%
Keelung/Taipei
En los primeros cinco meses de 2024 registraron aumentos de 27,0% y 17,5%
Puerto de Génova, Spediporto y Fedespedi piden a los conductores de camiones que congelen la tasa de congestión
Génova
DFDS venderá sus propios mini cruceros a Gotlandsbolaget
Copenhague/Visby
La desinversión incluirá los barcos "Crown Seaways" y "Pearl Seaways" construidos en 1994 y 1989.
Segundo informe del Centro de Estudios Fedespedi sobre la crisis de Suez
Milán
En el Mediterráneo, aprovechar los puertos más cercanos a Gibraltar
Finsea renueva su identidad de marca de identidad
Génova
La estructura del grupo se divide en tres grandes unidades de negocio: Finsea-Agencia naviera, Finsea-Transporte terrestre y Finsea-Logística global
Acelleron ha firmado un acuerdo de cinco años con Grandes Barcos Fast
Baden/Génova
Mantenimiento y asistencia a los más de 100 turbosopladores instalados en los 28 buques de la flota
En mayo el tráfico de contenedores en el puerto de Singapur ascendió a 3,5 millones de teu (+ 3,6%)
Singapur
En los primeros cinco meses de 2024, se manejaron 16,9 millones de teu (+ 7,7%).
El 17 de julio en Roma, se celebrará en Roma la asamblea de la Asociación Terminalista Terminalista Italiana.
Génova
Será precedido 16 por un evento privado entre networking y arte
El mes pasado los ingresos de Evergreen crecieron un 40,3% por ciento
Taipei
En los primeros cinco meses de 2024, el incremento fue del 36,2% por ciento.
El español Pérez y Cía. compró la EUCONSA
Madrid
Está especializada en el transporte intermodal a granel de productos químicos y petroquímicos
Canal de Suez, continuación de la política de descuentos aplicada a los barcos en tránsito
Ismailia
El tráfico marítimo todavía está más que reducido a la mitad en comparación con el año pasado.
Conferencia sobre la seguridad y la optimización del flujo de pasajeros en puertos y fronteras
Roma
Organizado por la Fundación ICSA, se celebrará el 12 de junio en Roma
El significativo aumento del tráfico de contenedores en el puerto de Barcelona continuó en abril.
Barcelona
Solo el tráfico de transbordo ha crecido un 73,9%
Piero Lazzeri ha sido nombrado presidente de Sanilog
Roma
Walter Barbieri ha sido nombrado vicepresidente del fondo para los próximos tres años.
Alemán L.I.T. compra la empresa italiana Autotransporte Pedot
Freno
La empresa Lavis (Trento) fue fundada en 1939
En el primer trimestre de este año, el tráfico de mercancías en los puertos tunecinos cayó un -8,3% por ciento.
La Goulette
En descenso tanto los desembarques (-6,1%) como el embarque (-11,5%)
Danés Scan Global Logistics ha comprado la Fopfloor Shipping & Logistics
Copenhague
La empresa, con sede en Prato, emplea a más de 160 personas.
Nuevo servicio Egipto-Grecia-Grecia-Argelia de Tarros y línea de diamantes
El Spezia
Tendrá asistencia semanal y será inaugurado el 28 de junio
Puerto de Gioia Tauro, ok de la CSLP a las cirugías para los buques ro-ro y ro-pax
Alegría Tauro
Aprobado el ajuste técnico funcional al PRP
Uiltransport, hacia la movilización de los puertos italianos del 17 al 23 de junio
Roma
Recuperación del poder adquisitivo, seguridad y mayores protecciones son las demandas
Michail Stahlhut (Hupac) es el nuevo presidente de UIRR
Bruselas
Jürgen Albersmann (Contargo) nombrado Vicepresidente
Terminales Italia pasa al Polo Logístico de FS Group
Roma
Mercitalia Logistics se ha convertido en socio único de la empresa
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Puertos italianos:
Ancona Génova Rávena
Augusta Gioia Tauro Salerno
Bari La Spezia Savona
Brindisi Liorna Taranto
Cagliari Nápoli Trapani
Carrara Palermo Trieste
Civitavecchia Piombino Venecia
Interpuertos Italianos: lista Puertos del mundo: Mapa
BANCO DE DATOS
Armadores Reparadores navales y astilleros
Expedicionarios Abastecedores de bordo
Agencias marítimas Transportistas
MEETINGS
La asamblea de Assagents se celebrará en Génova el 25 de junio.
Génova
Evento titulado " Mari inquieti. Rutas y conflictos: la incognición de los traficantes "
Conferencia sobre la seguridad y la optimización del flujo de pasajeros en puertos y fronteras
Roma
Organizado por la Fundación ICSA, se celebrará el 12 de junio en Roma
››› Archivo
RESEÑA DE LA PRENSA
How multinational shipping lines frustrates growth of African counterparts
(Vanguard)
Deutsche Bahn Schenker takes CVC, Maersk, DSV and Bahri into final round, sources sa
(Reuters)
››› Reseña de la Prensa Archivo
FORUM de lo shipping y
de la logística
Relazione del presidente Mario Mattioli
Roma, 27 ottobre 2023
››› Archivo
A partir de 2026 será obligatorio para la notificación de contenedores perdidos en el mar
A partir de 2026 será obligatorio para la notificación de contenedores perdidos en el mar
Washington/Singapur/Bruselas/Londres
Kjaer (WSC): avances significativos en la seguridad de la navegación y la protección del medio ambiente
Emiratense ADNOC Logística y Servicios compra Navig8
Abu Dhabi
Transacción del valor de aproximadamente 1,4-1, 5 mil millones
Parte de la antigua zona de Tubilar del puerto de Ancona se reservará para el desarrollo de la industria de la construcción naval náutica
Ancona
Aprobado un acto de dirección
Mañana La Méridionale inaugurará el servicio de ferry Livorno-Île-Rousse.
Marsella
Se esperan tres salidas semanales
El primer mes de julio Maersk introducirá una tarifa de combustible fósil
Copenhague
El nuevo soberbio reemplazará gradualmente el Factor de Ajuste de Bunker y el Bajo Recargo De Azufre
Fit Cisl, necesario para asegurar el funcionamiento completo del Comité de Gestión de AdSP de la Liguria Occidental
Génova
Bilog, las empresas se unen al AdSP de la Liguria Oriental y el Municipio de Piacenza
El Spezia
Vittorio Torbianelli ha sido nombrado Comisario extraordinario de la AdSP del Mar Adriático Oriental
Roma
Hermanos Cosulich, nuevo tanquero búnker químico búnker IMO2
Génova
Es el primero en la flota listo para transportar metanol
COSCO llevará a cabo la mejora de combustible dual de cuatro nuevos buques portacontenedores de más de 16.000 teu
Shanghai
Renovada la Cda de Interport Padua
Padova
Luciano Greco es el nuevo presidente
Las empresas de autotransporte que operan con el puerto de Génova introducen una "tasa de congestión"
Génova
En Venecia, se estableció la Academia de Logística y el Mar
Venecia
Es el fruto de la colaboración entre ITS Marco Polo Academy, Vemars y CFLI
Firmado el contrato para la electrificación de los muelles en el puerto de Termoli
Bari
En el programa trabaja el valor total de alrededor de 4,5 millones de euros
Disminución del rendimiento financiero trimestral de Danaos y MPCC
Atenas/Oslo
Las dos empresas tienen flotas de 69 y 56 buques portacontenedores respectivamente
Hupac cerró el ejercicio 2023 con una pérdida neta de -6,2 millones de francos.
Chiasso
Siguiente aumento de la frecuencia de los servicios intermodales en el corredor Benelux-Italia
A partir de julio, se activará el Sistema Comunitario Portuario del Puerto de Palermo.
Palermo
Permite la gestión del tráfico de barcos, medios y mercancías en la escala
RINA presenta un plan de crecimiento que podría incluir nuevas adquisiciones
Génova
En 2023 el crecimiento de los ingresos del 10% por ciento. Nuevos pedidos estables en el primer trimestre de este año
Apoyo de Banco BPM, UniCredit y SACE para la implementación de intervenciones en los puertos de Nápoles y Salerno
Nápoles
Pago anticipado Bono de 36 millones de euros a R.C.M. Construcción
El primero de los cajones de la nueva presa foranea ha llegado a Génova.
Génova
Fue colocado a -25 metros de profundidad
Misión de Spediport en China para promover el desarrollo de la carga aérea en Génova
Génova
Paradas en Hong Kong, Shenzhen y Guangzhou
Planificación del espacio marítimo, Italia remitió al Tribunal de Justicia de la UE
Bruselas
Bruselas denuncia la falta de tramitación y comunicación de los planes de gestión
En La Spezia se espera el establecimiento de una Facultad de Transporte de Economía y Logística
El Spezia
Pisano: el sector está en la búsqueda constante de una profesionalidad adecuada
El martes en Livorno, la conferencia se llevará a cabo "Il Freight Train en los puertos"
Livorno
FerMerci promueve una confrontación entre instituciones y operadores del transporte ferroviario de mercancías en los puertos
Memorándum de Entendimiento firmado por ALIS y Assiterminal
Génova
Desarrollo conjunto de temas estratégicos para las empresas y los trabajadores en los ámbitos de referencia
Swiss, 2,1% por ciento de aumento en tarifas de vías férreas
Bern
Los costes del tráfico de mercancías aumentarán en unos seis millones de francos al año
El fletador de contenedores Euroseas considera positivas las perspectivas de su segmento de mercado
Atenas
CargoBeamer asegura la financiación de 140 millones de euros de inversores públicos y privados
Renovada la gestión de las LOGísticas SOS
Milán
Daniele Textos ha sido confirmado a la presidencia
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