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14 juillet 2024 - Année XXVIII
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CENTRO INTERNAZIONALE STUDI CONTAINERSANNO XXXVIII - Numero SETTEMBRE 2020

MARITIME TRANSPORT

CONTAINER RATES ARE ON FIRE. HOW CAN YOU INVEST IN THAT?

Containers have wrestled the ocean-shipping headlines away from tankers and bulkers as stratospheric China-to-California box rates approach $4,000 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU). Container shipping, declares a glowing new report by Fearnleys Securities, is "The Unsung Hero."

How can investors expose themselves to this historic trans-Pacific rate spike? Can box stocks woo tanker and bulker shareowners? And what do the curiously low prices of some container equities say about sentiment toward a U.S. recovery?

FreightWaves interviewed four shipping analysts to delve into these questions. Their responses highlight significant differences between investing in container shipping versus bulk commodity shipping.

They also point to opportunities for investors and traders to ride today's container wave.

Liner exposure

In tanker and dry bulk shipping, the ship owner is generally U.S.-listed and extremely leveraged to highly volatile daily spot freight rates. Theoretically, there should be a clear, direct link between spot rates and stock prices.

The link is not so clear in container shipping. According to the Freightos Baltic Daily Index, spot rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast (SONAR: FBXD.CNAW) were up to $3,835 per FEU as of Monday. The liner companies are the direct beneficiaries of these soaring spot rates.


However, most liners have more long-term contract business than spot business, and many own diversified logistics platforms. Meanwhile, almost all public liner companies are listed in Europe and Asia, not the U.S.; the only U.S.-listed liner, Matson (NYSE: MATX), is primarily in the domestic Jones Act trade.

Investing in global liner giant Maersk - which has two classes of stock listed in Copenhagen and some thinly traded American depositary receipts (ADRs) in the U.S. (OTC: AMKBY) - is a very different proposition than, for example, buying Nordic American Tankers (NYSE: NAT) shares on Robinhood.


Investors can also buy liner exposure through U.S.-dollar-denominated bonds.

The prize goes to those who had the intestinal fortitude to buy bonds of French liner CMA CGM at "peak fear" in March, when those notes were trading at 55 cents on the dollar. They're now close to par (100 cents).

Leasing: 'Not particularly sexy'

The primary way U.S. investors buy exposure to container shipping is not through liners but via common and preferred shares of leasing companies: ship owners that charter (rent) vessels to liners and container-equipment owners that rent boxes to liners.

"It's kind of a boring business," acknowledged Ben Nolan, analyst at Wells Fargo, referring to containership leasing. "They're not particularly sexy," echoed Michael Webber, founder of Webber Research & Advisory, of box-equipment lessors.

According to Randy Giveans, analyst at Jefferies, "When you look at tankers, there's a lot more volatility in rates. More boom and bust. With container shipping, utilization may move around a couple of percentage points, and in normal times - and obviously this year is not normal - rates stay in a pretty tight band. Plus, there are a lot more vessels on long-term charters in the container market than in tankers and dry bulk. Container shipping is more like a conveyor belt moving goods from Asia to the U.S. and Europe.

"This year has been different. Because of COVID and the massive supply and demand shocks to containers, it has been quite a ride," said Giveans. "But usually, the driver for containers is much more about global GDP. And the drivers for tankers and dry bulk are more about geopolitical events and weather and shocks to supply and demand."

Tanker and bulker stocks are generally more casino-esque than the container stocks - and shipping investors have been more drawn to the excitement of the casinos. Quite a few tanker stock buyers have had a very exciting albeit very unprofitable year in 2020.

The case for ship lessors

The U.S-listed containership lessors (otherwise known as tonnage providers) include Seaspan owner Atlas Corp (NYSE: ATCO), Costamare (NYSE: CMRE), Global Ship Lease (NYSE: GSL), Danaos Corp. (NYSE: DAC), Capital Product Partners (NYSE: CPLP), Navios Containers (NASDAQ: NMCI), Navios Partners (NYSE: NMM) and Euroseas (NASDAQ: ESEA).
"There's a lot of misunderstanding of what these stocks are," said J Mintzmyer, analyst at Seeking Alpha's Value Investors Edge (disclosure: Mintzmyer owns long positions in several containership leasing stocks).

"This is just like aircraft leasing. Yes, there is a ship and someone is steering the ship. But these are not actually shipping companies.

"This is equipment leasing," he explained. "When the liner industry is very healthy and counterparty risk goes toward zero and interest rates are down, the value of the lease goes up."

Several analysts now argue that these stocks have not recovered as much as they should have, contending that investors who buy in now could pocket upside as the stocks catch up (even more so after the recent days' sell-off).

These stocks have two main drivers, both of which are heavily leveraged to the coronavirus. One is the counterparty risk of the liners that charter the ships. In periods of crisis, liners have defaulted and given the ships back. They have also renegotiated the rates lower.

The second driver is charter maturities. If a lessor has ships on 10-year charters, what's happening with charter rates this month is irrelevant. But for a lessor with multiple charters expiring soon, today's charter rates are highly relevant.

Charter rates, bond prices rebound

When liners "blanked" (canceled) double-digit percentages of capacity from Asia to Europe and the U.S. during the second quarter, they needed a lot fewer ships. Liners own a portion of their fleet and charter the rest from tonnage providers. In crisis periods when they need fewer ships, and a charter expires, they'll either not renew or only renew at much lower rates.

During coronavirus, charter rates fell precipitously, by 25-40%. Counterparty risks escalated. The stocks of the containership lessors would logically sink on this combination - and they did.

Then, things went off-script. U.S. cargo demand was much higher than expected and all the blanked capacity was reinstated. Survivability fears about CMA CGM and other liners dissipated as big second-quarter profits were reported. Bonds recovered.

Containership time-charter rates jumped all the way back to where they were before the crisis began, in some cases higher. Alphaliner reported Tuesday that rates for classic Panamaxes (4,000-5,299 twenty-foot equivalent units) are now garnering their highest rates since 2011 - up to $20,000 a day.

And yet, the stock prices of the containership lessors have not followed suit. They're still down in the 30-40% range year to date.


According to Mintzmyer, "You can put up charts of all these different things. The CMA bonds. The GSL bonds. Charter rates. Maersk's stock. Matson's stock. The stocks of box lessors, companies like CAI (NYSE: CAI). They're all correlated. January: great. February, March: horrendous. Then recovery. But if you look at the containership lessors, they're still all much closer to their 52-week lows."

Ship-lessor stocks left behind

Nolan at Stifel has been pointing out this disparity since mid-August, dubbing containership leasing companies "the single most compelling investment opportunity in traditional shipping segments."

Nolan told FreightWaves, "You haven't seen the same degree of follow-through [with prices] with respect to the ship-lessor equities. The counterparty risk is off the table. The [charter] rollover risk is less severe. The duration of time charters is going up.

"The bonds have really rerated. So, either credit investors [who bid up bonds such as CMA CGM's] are ahead of the curve or they've missed something. Either there's a risk the bonds need to come down or some of these equities need to come up."'

Battle for eyeballs'

There are at least two reasons the ship-lessor stocks haven't recovered. One could be that there's not enough interest - these stocks just aren't sexy enough. Another could be that there are legitimate fears about the U.S. recovery.

"I think it's mostly a lack of air time," said Mintzmyer. "If you look at tankers, what got those stocks moving was companies speaking on CNBC and analysts talking about those stocks."

Webber cited the "uphill battle for eyeballs" for these stocks.

Nolan agreed that the container stocks have lacked attention. "Capital for shipping is transient. Either it's there or it's not. And right now, it's not. It doesn't really matter what you think from a valuation perspective until there's a catalyst to get people to want to look at it again. The question is: At what point is there a catalyst? Maybe it will be [third-quarter] earnings. That's my best guess at the moment."

Lag effect

Giveans and Nolan both said a lag between the surge in liner spot container rates and containership lessor stock prices made sense.

"When you see $4,000-per-FEU rates, the liners get that cash immediately, whereas on the ship-charter side, the activity is few and far between so you wouldn't see an immediate uplift [in charter income]," said Giveans.

"It sort of makes sense that these [ship-leasing] equities would lag because they're kind of the tip of the spear relative to the liner companies," added Nolan.

"When there's excess capacity, the liners can lay off equipment and still do reasonably well and the lessors bear the brunt of that impact. Then, if the market begins to recover a bit for the liners, it doesn't necessarily have to translate [immediately] into a stronger market for the lessors."

But this raises the question: If stocks are inherently forward-looking and efficient, the market should be able to account for the charter-rate recovery as well as when lessors' charters will expire (and reap the benefits of the rate recovery), then reprice the stocks. If that's not happening, perhaps the market is pricing in a faltering U.S. economic recovery?

Trouble ahead?

"The wild card here is that I don't think anybody can say with high conviction that demand is going to be great for however long," said Nolan. "It's surprisingly good now, but we're not there yet."

"I think there are a lot of questions about the sustainability of demand," said Giveans. "Container rates are certainly going to come down as inventories get restocked and demand doesn't rebound as quickly as many people had hoped."

"I think it reflects trepidation around the future," said Webber. "I agree that you would have thought there'd be more of a recovery [in the containership lessor stocks]. But I also think the markets are consciously or subconsciously inferring a degree of credit risk."

Betting on box lessors instead

With containership lessors, said Webber, "the market exposure is lumpy because you have bigger chunks of cash flow rolling off at different times [due to charter expirations]. This can overlap with the refi [debt refinancing] cycle, and all of a sudden you get stuck."

Webber believes a better way to invest in the container-shipping space is to buy stocks in the box-equipment lessors that own containers and rent them to liners (as with ships, liner companies own a portion of their box fleet and rent the rest). These companies include Triton (NYE: TRTN), CAI and Textainer (NYSE: TGH).


"They're more liquid [than shipping container stocks]. And they don't have these waves of new supply that obfuscate what's going on from a sector dynamics perspective like you do in shipping," Webber explained.

It takes two years to build a ship but only six to eight weeks to build a container. In practice, this means box supply is more closely calibrated with demand than ship supply. It's less likely for capacity owners to overshoot.

"These [box-equipment lessor] stocks offer a better real-time gauge of what's actually happening from a trade perspective, and they're closer as a real-time indicator to the container lines themselves," argued Webber.

Investor interest still tepid

FreightWaves asked the analysts whether the recent publicity on container-shipping spot rates is bringing more investors into the fold.

Mintzmyer is enthusiastic. "It's so weird that nobody is talking about this. I think container ships are the most interesting of all the shipping sectors," he said.

"We have certainly had some calls," reported Giveans. "But mostly from people who were already interested in container ships. It's more legacy investors who had been on the sidelines and are now saying, 'Oh my goodness, this market is actually good. We have something positive here. How long can this last?'

According to Nolan, "Whether this is inventory restocking or stimulus spending or whatever, clearly something is going on. It has raised some eyebrows. People are looking at it as a non-energy, non-tech way to play the COVID-19 recovery. But it's certainly not like my phone is ringing off the hook." Click for more FreightWaves/American Shipper articles by Greg Miller

freightwaves.com



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Approuvé le budget 2023 de l'Interporto Campano
Nola
Confirmé Alfredo Gaetani (Président) et Claudio Ricci (Directeur général)
Le groupe danois SGL achète le brésilien Blu Logistics Brasil
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Accord pour l'acquisition de l'ensemble du capital-actions
Saipem, s'engage pour des activités offshore en Azerbaïdjan
Milan
Dans l'activité de programme dans les eaux azerbaïdjanaises de la mer Caspienne
99,2% des 400 millions d'augmentation de capital de Fincantieri sont
Rome
L'actionnaire majoritaire CDP Equity a souscrit à de nouvelles actions d'une valeur de 285,8 millions d'euros.
Le 17 juillet, l'assemblée publique d'Assiterminal se tiendra à Rome.
Rome
Messine (Assarpowners): avec le renouvellement du Ccnl de l'industrie de l'armateur, des réponses valables aux besoins des travailleurs
À The Spice Container Terminal, démarrez les pétoncles des 21 000 tu porte-conteneurs d'OOCL
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Inauguré la centrale d'alimentation terrestre du port de La Valette
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Chaque mercredi "MSC World Europa" se connectera au réseau électrique de l'escale
Le PAD, les mesures visant à atténuer la congestion dans le port de Singapour ont du succès
Singapour
Au cours des derniers mois, il a augmenté, entre autres, la nécessité de manipuler des conteneurs plusieurs fois.
Présenté le XII Rapport national sur l'économie de la mer
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Le secteur génère une valeur ajoutée directe de 64,6 milliards d'euros.
Mise en place dans le chantier d'Ancône de la construction du navire de croisière extra-aluminium Four Seasons I
Trieste
Fincantieri le livrera d'ici la fin de l'année 2025
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La société estime que la seconde moitié de 2024 sera meilleure que les précédentes.
En mai, le trafic de marchandises dans le port de Ravenne a diminué de -3,0%
Ravenne
Le mois de juin devrait diminuer de -3,3%.
L'analyse économique et financière de Fedespedi des sociétés de transport conteneurisées
Milan
Laying of the keel of the new ultra-luxury megayacht voué for Aman at Sea
Gênes
Cérémonie dans le chantier de Saint Georges de Nogaro de T. Mariotti
Danaos confirme l'ordre en Chine pour cinq nouveaux porte-conteneurs
Athènes
Quatre auront une capacité de 9.200 teu et une capacité de 8.258 teu
A Barcelone, le premier terminal de conteneurs en Méditerranée avec un quai électrifié
Barcelone
Vendredi, l'inauguration de la centrale de production d'électricité à terre dans les ports Hutchison BEST
La croissance des revenus des Taïwanais Evergreen et Yang Ming continue
Taipei / Keelung
YML commande 9 100 nouveaux conteneurs
Inauguré à Gioia Tauro le quai qui accueillera le pôle des réparations navales
Joy Tauro
Agostinelli: Cette année, le trafic conteneurs au port va défier les quatre millions de teu
Le groupe chinois Hengli va construire un chantier naval sur l'île de Changxing
Dalian
Investissement de la valeur de 1,3 milliard
SFL Corporation renouvelle avec Maersk la location de quatre porte-conteneurs
Hamilton
La capacité des navires sera élevée de 8 700 à 9 500 teu
Prysmian, enregistrement de l'installation d'un câble dans les eaux ultra-profondes
Milan
Essai d'installation à -2,150 mètres
Allemagne: Rhenus a acquis 15% de C Chez Vous
Holzwickede
Est spécialisée dans la livraison de marchandises d'un poids supérieur à 30 kilogrammes
Astilleros Armon a livré le traversier à double carburant Margarita Salas à Baleària
Dénia
Peut être alimenté en gaz naturel liquéfié
Les frères Cosulich commande deux nouveaux camions-citernes de bunkering
Gênes
Ils seront pris en livraison au premier semestre de 2026
Lineage achète le fournisseur abruzzese des entrepôts frigorifiques Eurofrigor
Amsterdam
Gère une structure de cellules réfrigérées de plus de 24 000 mètres carrés en Controwar
Fincantieri vara à Ancône le navire de croisière Viking Vesta
Los Angeles
Au milieu de l'année 2025, elle sera livrée à American Viking
A la fin de la phase constructive du port de Porto Torres
Cagliari
Enconfiance à un Groupe consultatif technique sur la question des coûts les plus élevés de l'opéra
En Chine, la quille du nouveau roulier a été fixée. GNV Virgo
Gênes
Il sera le premier navire de la flotte de GNV à être alimenté par le gaz naturel liquéfié
LES DÉPARTS
Visual Sailing List
Départ
Destination:
- liste alphabétique
- liste des nations
- zones géographiques
A Gênes, la Journée mondiale de la navigation
Gênes
Le 22 août, l'AISM assumera le statut juridique d'organisation intergouvernementale
SFL Corporation ordonne la construction de cinq porte-conteneurs à partir de 16 800 teu
Hamilton
Valide la valeur d'un milliard de dollars pour le New Times Shipbuilding
En 2023, Fratelli Cosulich a enregistré des performances financières secondes seulement pour les enregistrements de 2022
Gênes
OMT (Accelleron) acquiert l'OMC2
Revols
La société fabrique des injecteurs de carburant de haute précision pour les moteurs marins, fixes et ferroviaires
L'année dernière, le trafic de marchandises dans les ports néerlandais a chuté de -7,6%.
La Haye
Réduction des volumes dans tous les principaux compartiments merceologiques
Chantier Naval de Marseille va rénover deux autres navires de croisière de l'AIDA Cruises
Rostock
Ils font partie de la classe "Sphinx"
Genovese De Wave a acquis Inoxking
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La société fabrique des meubles en acier et des systèmes de réfrigération pour l'industrie maritime
Le ralentissement du trafic de conteneurs dans le port du Pirée continue
Hong Kong
Dans l'ensemble, les volumes traités par le réseau COSCO Shipping Ports ont été augmentes.
Le SMC obtient 97,71% du capital des transporteurs de Gram
Oslo
Dans les jours à venir, l'acquisition des actions restantes
Hapag-Lloyd réitère sa propre division terminaliste
Hambourg
A Hanseatic Global Terminals, 20 terminaux de conteneurs dans 11 pays
ADNOC Services de logistique et de services en Corée 8-10 nouveaux navires de gaz naturel liquéfié
Abu Dhabi
Ils seront construits par Samsung Heavy Industries et Hanwha Ocean
Kombiverkehr est alarmé par la réduction des services DB Cargo pour le transport intermodal
Francfort sur le Main
La société est à la recherche de partenaires alternatifs
Le SMC est prêt à acquérir 15% de l'ADR à l'aéroport de Gênes
Gênes
Le groupe armateur a présenté une proposition contraignante d'achat
Fincantieri construira un quatrième sous-marin NFS pour la marine italienne
Trieste
Valide de la valeur de 500 millions d'euros
Quatre grands domaines critiques en vue de l'entrée en vigueur du règlement maritime de FuelEU
Rome
Atelier sur le thème du Young Group of Confitarme
Varo technique du deuxième des quatre navires rouliers du GNV en construction en Chine
Gênes
Le GNV Orion, de 52.000 tonnes de tsl, sera repris au cours de l'été 2025.
Les armateurs ont renforcé leur structure
Rome
Insertion dans le bio de Simone Parizzi, Mattia Canevari et Cesare Crocini
La société japonaise MOL acquiert 25% de la société de logistique Tanzaniana Alistair Group
Tokyo
Port de Ravenne, plus de quatre millions d'euros destinés à de nouveaux médiums d'impact moins environnemental
Ravenne
Interdiction de remplacer les moyens actuellement utilisés dans le quai
Rosetti Marino, nouveau engagé pour les activités offshore de l'EPC, d'une valeur de plus de 400 millions d'euros
Ravenne
Il envisage la réalisation de la partie supérieure de la plateforme de production de gaz qui sera installée au large des côtes libyennes
Ils retournent à la croissance des revenus du service de messagerie express FedEx
Memphis
Dans les mois à venir, on s'attend à une poursuite de la tendance positive actuelle.
Assagents analyse l'impact sur le trafic maritime des crises géopolitiques en place
Gênes
Le 9 juillet, Adria Ferries inaugurera une nouvelle ligne de ferry entre l'Italie et le Monténégro
Ancône
Service bihebdomadaire entre les ports d'Ancône et Bar
Les chemins de fer d'État et Eni poursuivent leur coopération dans le domaine des carburants alternatifs
Rome
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines aura 72% du capital de Gearbulk
Tokyo
Vous acquérerez 23% supplémentaires détenus par Halberton Holding (famille Jebsen)
The Young Shipowners Group of Confitarma lance le site web ItalianSeafarers
Rome
Présentation des possibilités de formation offertes par les entreprises et les fondations de la STI
En 2023, les passagers des navires MSC Crusere ont presque doublé.
Genève
L'entreprise Explora Journeys a également démarré en août.
EQT Infrastructure VI fonds achète Constellation Cold Logistics
Stockholm / Londres
Owns et exploite 26 entrepôts frigorifiques en Europe occidentale et en Scandinavie
UPS vend la société de logistique Coyote Logistics à RXO pour plus d'un milliard de dollars
Charlotte / Atlanta
En 2023, la valeur de l'actif a généré un chiffre d'affaires de 3,2 milliards
CMA CGM restructure les services en Méditerranée
Marseille
Modification des lignes Euronaf et TMX 2 à l'échelle de plusieurs ports italiens
La seule retroport du port de La Spezia est celle de Santo Stefano Magra
La Spezia
Des agents d'expédition et des agents de transport maritime et des douaniers qui disent non à l'hypothèse d'autres couloirs.
Guerriers (AdSP Livourne): Le terminal TDT doit conserver sa vocation merceologique
Livourne
Nous nous attendons à ce que Grimaldi développe des plans visant à promouvoir une véritable croissance des trafiquants conteneurisés.
PORTS
Ports Italiens:
Ancône Gênes Ravenne
Augusta Gioia Tauro Salerne
Bari La Spezia Savone
Brindisi Livourne Taranto
Cagliari Naples Trapani
Carrara Palerme Trieste
Civitavecchia Piombino Venise
Interports Italiens: liste Ports du Monde: Carte
BANQUE DES DONNÉES
Armateurs Réparateurs et Constructeurs de Navires
Transitaires Fournisseurs de Navires
Agences Maritimes Transporteurs routiers
MEETINGS
Le 17 juillet, l'assemblée publique d'Assiterminal se tiendra à Rome.
Rome
Messine (Assarpowners): avec le renouvellement du Ccnl de l'industrie de l'armateur, des réponses valables aux besoins des travailleurs
L'assemblée des Assagents aura lieu à Gênes le 25 juin.
Gênes
Événement intitulé " Mari inquieti. Itinéraires et conflits: la connaissance des trafiquants "
››› Archives
REVUE DE LA PRESSE
Samsung, HMM clash in US over shipping rates
(The Korea Times)
Houthis Mount Biggest Month of Attacks on Ships This Year
(Bloomberg)
››› Index Revue de la Presse
FORUM des opérateurs maritimes
et de la logistique
Relazione del presidente Stefano Messina
Roma, 2 luglio 2024
››› Archives
Emanuele Grimaldi a été réélu président de la Chambre internationale de navigation
Emanuele Grimaldi a été réélu président de la Chambre internationale de navigation
Montréal
Confirmé pour un autre mandat de deux ans
Lorenzo Giacobbe est le nouveau président du Groupe des Jeunes d'Assagents
Gênes
Il sera accompagné par les vice-présidents Pietro Abbona et Andrea Pompei
Les ports de Trieste et de Monfalcone sont alliés à ceux de Carthagène, Riga et Port de la Mer du Nord
Trieste
Rapport sur le travail dans les ports liguri
Gênes
Il a été réalisé par l'Académie italienne de l'Académie de Mercantile.
Transport intermodal de béton préfabriqué de la Toscane à la Sardaigne
Arezzo
Collaboration entre le groupe Baraclit, le pôle logistique du groupe FS et le groupe GMake
Elle poursuit la croissance du trafic de transbordement conteneurisé dans les ports d'Algeciras et de Valence
Algeciras / Valencia
En mai, dans les deux étagères, les conteneurs de transbordement ont augmenté de 8,4% et de 12,0%
Kombiverkehr, en 2025, doublera en Allemagne les coûts d'utilisation des lignes ferroviaires pour le transport de marchandises
Francfort sur le Main
Krebs: dans le pire des cas, nous arrêterons le transport
Ils élèvent à 88 les entreprises associées à Assiterminal
Gênes
Composition de sept nouvelles entreprises
Frères Cosulich a acquis le genovese Slavetti Enzo
Gênes
Il opère dans le domaine de la production et de la vente de produits matériels pour la construction navale et l'industrie nautique
Le naufrage probable de la renaissance Tuteur Attaqués par les Houthis
Portsmouth
Signalé l'observation en mer des débris et des serments d'hydrocarbure
Le Conseil de l'UE accepte sa position sur le nouveau règlement relatif à l'Agence européenne pour la sécurité maritime
Bruxelles
Également adopté l'approche générale du règlement relatif à l'utilisation de la capacité de l'infrastructure ferroviaire
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