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02 May 2025 - Year XXIX
Independent journal on economy and transport policy
06:31 GMT+2
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84% of the new constructions ordered by the Italian shipyard will be built in China
Analysis by the Confitarma Study Center on the possible impacts of US tariffs on the national shipping industry
Roma
April 3, 2025
The tariff measures proposed by the government administration led by Donald Trump to counter alleged unreasonable or discriminatory policies or practices by the China that would burden or limit US trade could theoretically generate port duties (extra fees) aggregates up to $40-52 billion. This is highlighted by the study "Centro Studi Confitarma - Possible impacts of US tariffs on the Italian shipping industry" that we publish by and which was drawn up by the Study Centre of the Italian Confederation of Shipowners (Confitarma).

The report analyzes the measures envisaged by the United States Trade Representatives (USTR), which include duties of up to 1.5 million dollars for each call in the United States of ships built in China or operated by operators with orders on Chinese construction sites, and proposes impact simulations that estimate these relevant potential port surcharges for shipping, with repercussions on the competitiveness of the maritime industry and European manufacturing.

The study recalls that the US is a strategic partner commercial sector of Italy - the first recipient of exports from our country outside the EU - with over 63 billion euro, of which more than 60% travels by sea, is second after China for national imports with almost 26 billion euros of the 45% of whom travel by sea. In tons of goods transported, Almost 100% of imports and 98.2% of exports to and from the USA travels by sea.

In addition, the analysis shows that more than 17% of the fleet is built in China, a share that rises to 84% considering only the new buildings currently ordered by the Italian shipping industry and to be delivered by 2028. The types of ships potentially more exposed are cargo ships followed by ferries, chemical tankers and oil tankers. Through Analysis of three case studies The report gives an assessment of the possible repercussions for consumers, primarily Americans but also European because of the negative effect on the demand for imports from the United States.




CONFEDERAZIONE ITALIANA ARMATORI

Centro Studi Confitarma

POSSIBILI IMPATTI DEI DAZI AMERICANI SULL'INDUSTRIA DELLO SHIPPING ITALIANO

2 aprile 2025

Premessa

Con riferimento alle recenti conclusioni dell'indagine effettuata dall'Office of the United States of Trade Representative (USTR) per presunte politiche o pratiche irragionevoli o discriminatore da parte della Cina, che gravano o limitano il commercio statunitense, di seguito un'analisi dei possibili riflessi per l'industria armatoriale italiana.

In particolare, si fa riferimento alle seguenti contromisure proposte dall'USTR:
  • fino a 1 milione di dollari per ogni ingresso in un porto degli Stati Uniti di una nave gestita da un operatore cinese, indipendentemente dal Paese di costruzione della nave;
  • fino a 1,5 milioni di dollari per ogni ingresso in un porto degli Stati Uniti di una nave costruita in Cina;
  • fino a 1 milione di dollari per ogni ingresso in un porto degli Stati Uniti di una nave gestita da un operatore che ha in ordine navi in cantieri cinesi (in base alla percentuale in ordine in cantieri cinesi nei successivi 24 mesi).
Le proposte dell'USTR prevedono, inoltre, che una quota crescente delle esportazioni statunitensi venga trasportata su navi battenti bandiera statunitense e costruite negli Stati Uniti (15% entro il 2030).

Con riferimento alle predette contromisure verranno analizzati i dati relativi alla flotta mercantile:
  • di bandiera italiana;
  • controllata dall'industria armatoriale nazionale;
inoltre:
  • nuove costruzioni ordinate dall'industria armatoriale nazionale.
Infine, verranno illustrati tre case study relativi agli effetti della tassazione per due delle tipologie di naviglio potenzialmente maggiormente coinvolte.


Rapporti commerciali Italia-USA

Prima di scendere nel dettaglio dell'analisi sul naviglio è opportuna una breve ricognizione dei rapporti commerciali tra Italia e USA con riferimento alle modalità di trasporto.

Gli USA sono partner strategico commerciale dell'Italia. Al di fuori dell'Ue, sono il primo destinatario delle esportazioni dal nostro paese con oltre 63 miliardi di euro di cui oltre il 60% viaggia via mare e secondo dopo la Cina per le importazioni nazionali con quasi 26 miliardi di euro dei quali il 45% viaggia via mare.

Tabella 1 - Interscambio commerciale Italia USA per modalità di trasporto


IMPORTAZIONI ESPORTAZIONI

mil.€ % € .000 ton % t mil.€ % € .000 ton % t
Sea 11.641 45,0% 14.219 99,8% 39.612 62,1% 6.880 98,2%
Air 14.248 55,0% 32 0,2% 24.144 37,9% 126 1,8%

25.889
14.251
63.756
7.006
Fonte: elaborazioni Confitarma su dati Eurostat

Come facilmente prevedibile, il mare gioca un ruolo di primo piano in termini di quantità di merci scambiate tra i due Paesi. In particolare, in tonnellate di merci, quasi il 100% delle importazioni e il 98,2% delle esportazioni viaggia via mare.


Flotta di bandiera italiana

Per la presente analisi sono state considerate le navi di bandiera nazionale di oltre 1.000 GT. Dall'analisi delle fonti emerge che oltre il 17% della flotta è costruita in Cina. Il Paese del Sol Levante si posiziona al terzo posto dopo Corea del Sud e Italia.

Tabella 2 - Primi 10 paesi costruttori della flotta italiana


CANTIERE N. NAVI GT MEDIA ETA' % TOT
1 Corea del Sud 76 3.178.464 15 26,0%
2 Italia 135 2.903.480 28 23,8%
3 Cina 63 2.147.851 10 17,6%
4 Germania 23 1.129.736 29 9,2%
5 Croazia 19 761.674 20 6,2%
6 Giappone 10 581.437 26 4,8%
7 Finlandia 5 472.401 25 3,9%
8 Turchia 30 292.663 16 2,4%
9 Romania 12 256.017 16 2,1%
10 Spagna 7 78.302 22 0,6%


431 12.215.799 21
Fonte: elaborazioni Confitarma su dati Lloyd's Register - Sea-Web

Passando alle singole tipologie di naviglio, la tipologia più impattata dalle misure ipotizzate dall'USTR è quella del carico secco (portarinfuse e carico generale), seguita a grande distanza dai traghetti e dalle petroliere.

Tabella 3 - Ranking della Cina nelle classifiche per tipologia di naviglio dei principali Paesi costruttori della flotta di bandiera


RANKING DI CATEGORIA QUOTA
CARICO SECCO 1 99,3%
TRAGHETTI 3 23,3%
PETROLIERE 2 11,7%
CONTAINER 6 9,1%
CHIMICHIERE 4 6,7%
CROCIERE n.a. n.a.
GASIERE n.a. n.a.
Fonte: elaborazioni Confitarma su dati Lloyd's Register - Sea-Web

Va evidenziato che nella categoria dei traghetti al primo posto del ranking dei cantieri costruttori del naviglio di bandiera italiana figura l'Italia con una quota di oltre il 27% mentre, per le petroliere, il primo posto è occupato dalla Corea del Sud con una quota di oltre il 63%.


Flotta di controllata dall'industria armatoriale italiana

Passando alla flotta mercantile operata a diverso titolo dall'armamento nazionale (Group Owner, Register Owner, Operator, Shipmanager), sempre considerando le navi di oltre 1.000 GT, si evidenzia che oltre il 17% della flotta è costruita in Cina.

Tabella 4 - Primi 10 paesi costruttori della flotta operata dall'armamento italiano


CANTIERE GT N. NAVI MEDIA ETA' % TOT
1 Corea del Sud 11.274.621 161 13 43,0%
2 EU 7.086.158 329 27 27,0%
3 Cina 4.691.595 172 11 17,9%
4 Giappone 1.736.768 48 17 6,6%
5 Vietnam 472.783 16 9 1,8%
6 Turchia 452.305 48 16 1,7%
7 Brasile 78.399 4 21 0,3%
8 Russia 74.642 11 17 0,3%
9 Taiwan 66.532 2 7 0,3%
10 Singapore 63.642 3 14 0,2%


26.200.765 821 19
Fonte: elaborazioni Confitarma su dati Lloyd's Register - Sea-Web

Passando alle singole tipologie di naviglio, la tipologia più impattata dalle misure ipotizzate dall'USTR resta quella del carico secco (portarinfuse e carico generale), seguita dalle chimichiere e quindi dai traghetti e dalle petroliere.

Tabella 5 - Ranking della Cina nelle classifiche per tipologia di naviglio dei principali Paesi costruttori della flotta operata dall'armamento italiano


RANKING DI CATEGORIA QUOTA
CARICO SECCO 1 64,0%
CHIMICHIERE 1 47,0%
TRAGHETTI 2 28,0%
PETROLIERE 2 23,0%
CONTAINER 2 10,0%
GASIERE 4 4,0%
CROCIERE n.a. n.a.
Fonte: elaborazioni Confitarma su dati Lloyd's Register - Sea-Web

Va evidenziato che il 46% dei traghetti operati dall'armamento nazionale risulta costruito nei paesi dell'Ue.


Nuove costruzioni dall'industria armatoriale italiana

Passando al naviglio ordinato dall'armamento nazionale (Group Owner, Register Owner, Operator, Shipmanager) nei cantieri mondiali, sempre considerando le navi di oltre 1.000 GT, si evidenzia che oltre l'84% della flotta è in costruzione nei cantieri cinesi.

Tabella 6 - Primi 3 paesi costruttori delle navi ordinate dall'armamento italiano


CANTIERE GT N. NAVI % TOT
1 Cina 2.150.798 39 84,6%
2 Corea del Sud 346.165 1 13,6%
3 EU 46.180 4 1,8%
TOT
2.543.143 44
Fonte: elaborazioni Confitarma su dati Lloyd's Register - Sea-Web

Passando alle singole tipologie di naviglio, emerge che la totalità o quasi degli ordini relativi alle tipologie del carico secco (portarinfuse e carico generale), dei traghetti, delle container e delle chimichiere sono in costruzione in Cina.

Tabella 7 - Ranking della Cina nelle classifiche per tipologia di naviglio dei principali Paesi costruttori delle navi ordinate dall'armamento italiano


RANKING DI CATEGORIA QUOTA
CARICO SECCO 1 100,0%
TRAGHETTI 1 100,0%
CONTAINER 1 100,0%
CHIMICHIERE 1 90,0%
GASIERE 2 41,0%
PETROLIERE n.a. n.a.
CROCIERE n.a. n.a.
Fonte: elaborazioni Confitarma su dati Lloyd's Register - Sea-Web


Case study

Da un'analisi preliminare degli scali nei porti USA nel 2024 di navi commerciali e dell'attuale profilo della flotta nonché del portafoglio ordini delle società che gestiscono le stesse, ipotizzando che la distribuzione delle navi e la combinazione delle strutture tariffarie rimanga la stessa (sebbene la possibilità di ridistribuzione delle navi suggerisca che le commissioni effettive sarebbero inferiori a questa cifra), si stima che le misure proposte potrebbero teoricamente generare dazi portuali (extra fees) aggregati fino a $40-$52 miliardi.

Per contestualizzare: nel 2025 la “fattura” per conformarsi all'EU ETS (phase-in al 70%) è stimata nell'intorno di $4 miliardi, nel 2024 sono stati spesi circa $ 207 miliardi a livello globale per le navi di nuova costruzione, di cui $136 miliardi nei cantieri navali cinesi, $160 miliardi è la spesa totale per il bunker della flotta mondiale, il valore totale dell'intero commercio marittimo statunitense è pari a $2,2 trilioni.

Tabella 8 - extra costi sul costo del trasporto per tipologia di nave

TIPO NAVE ROTTA TARIFFA 2023/2024 STIMA EXTRA COSTO INCIDENZA MEDIA
Portacontainer standard da 10.000 TEU1 Asia-US East Coast con tre scali negli Stati Uniti 2023: media 1.250 $/TEU
2024: media 3.250/TEU
400-600 $/TEU 2023: 40% per TEU
2024: 15% per TEU
Portarinfuse Capesize2 Baltimora - Rotterdam 2024: media $15/tonnellata $ 8-12 a tonnellata 2024: 66%
Petroliera prodotti raffinati3 (38mila tonnellate) Houston - Amsterdam 2024: media $ 37/tonnellata $ 26-39 a tonnellata 86,00%
Fonte: elaborazioni Confitarma su dati Clarksons

  • Le tariffe per le singole navi potrebbero arrivare - worst case scenario - fino a 3,5 milioni di dollari per scalo (nave costruita in Cina, operata da una società cinese e con navi ordinate in Cina), sebbene l'analisi suggerisca che la maggior parte delle navi “interessate” potrebbe subire extra fees comprese tra 1/1,5 milioni di dollari:
  • per una portacontainer standard da 10mila TEU impiegata sulla Trans-pacific (Asia-USEC) con tre scali negli Stati Uniti per rotazione, le extra fee di 1/1,5 milioni di dollari per scalo equivalgono ad un maggior costo di trasporto effettivo aggiuntivo di 400-600 $/TEU (la tariffa di trasporto media 2023: circa 1.250 $/TEU, 2024: 3.250/TEU).
  • per una standard Capesize che trasporta carbone tra Baltimora e Rotterdam, i costi aggiuntivi di 1/1,5 milioni di dollari per port call equivalgono ad 8-12 $/t aggiuntivi di costo effettivo di trasporto (media 2024: 15 $/t, range annuale di 11-22 $/t). Per immediato confronto i costi nell'ambito dell'EU ETS sono minori di 1 $/t nel 2025 ed i costi stimati della sanzione FuelEU Maritime (-2% GHG) sono inferiori 0,5 $/t.
  • per una standard MR (min 38kt) che trasporta prodotti da Houston ad Amsterdam, costi aggiuntivi di 1/1,5 milioni di dollari equivalgono a un ulteriore 26-39 $/t di costo effettivo del trasporto (media 2024: 37 $/t, range annuale 26-59 $/t). Per immediato confronto nell'ambito dell'EU ETS sono ~2 $/t nel 2025 e i costi stimati della sanzione FuelEU Maritime (-2% GHG) sono inferiori a 1 $/t.

Tali maggiori costi ricadranno sui consumatori statunitensi attraverso la catena di fornitura determinando un aumento della pressione inflazionistica con effetti negativi sulla domanda di importazioni degli Stati Uniti. Allo stesso tempo anche la competitività delle esportazioni statunitensi (crude oil, prodotti raffinati ed LNG) potrebbe essere influenzata negativamente, con implicazioni potenzialmente significative per i consumatori europei.

1 TEU: unità di misura del container. Ogni TEU equivale a un container
2 Portarinfuse Capesize: in grado di trasportare fino a 170mila tonnellate di portata di carbone, metalli ecc..
3 Prodotti raffinati: gasolio, benzina, ecc.
››› News file
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Genoa
"GNV Orion" will be able to accommodate 1,700 passengers and transport up to 3,080 linear metres of cargo
After ten quarters of decline, container traffic in the port of Hong Kong returns to growth
Hong Kong
In the first three months of this year 3.39 million TEUs were handled (+2.1%)
Fincantieri acquires stake in WSense
Rome
The ninth FREMM unit "Spartaco Schergat" delivered to the Italian Navy
The new edition of the Practical Manual of Maritime Traffic has been presented
Genoa
Written by Assagenti, it turns fifty
Container traffic at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles increased by 26.6% and 5.2% in the first quarter
Long Beach/Los Angeles
Trump's tariffs impact imminent
In the first three months of 2025, the port of Singapore handled 10.5 million containers (+5.8%)
Singapore
In weight, containerized traffic recorded a decrease of -1.4%
Regulations signed for LNG bunkering at Fincantieri shipyard in Genoa
Genoa
Define the methods of transferring fuel from ship to ship
Historic shipbuilding brands Uljanik and 3.Maj on the verge of extinction
Zagreb
The State confirms its intention to sell the shipbuilding activities at the two sites of Pula and Rijeka
Cambiaso Risso has completed the acquisition of the French Somecassur
Genoa
The transalpine company specializes in the insurance of super and mega yachts
New weekly train service between the port of Gioia Tauro and Verona
Joy Taurus/Verona
Operated by Medlog for the transport of refrigerated goods
EBRD looking for strategic partner for development of Moldovan river port of Giurgiulesti
London
International competition launched
PORTS
Italian Ports:
Ancona Genoa Ravenna
Augusta Gioia Tauro Salerno
Bari La Spezia Savona
Brindisi Leghorn Taranto
Cagliari Naples Trapani
Carrara Palermo Trieste
Civitavecchia Piombino Venice
Italian Interports: list World Ports: map
DATABASE
ShipownersShipbuilding and Shiprepairing Yards
ForwardersShip Suppliers
Shipping AgentsTruckers
MEETINGS
The conference "New sustainable marine fuels - Decarbonize Shipping" will be held in Genoa on Monday
Genoa
It will take place at the headquarters of the Port Authority of Genoa
"Artificial Intelligence Comes to Port" Conference in Rome on Friday
Rome
It is promoted by the National Union of Port Enterprises
››› Meetings File
PRESS REVIEW
Proposed 30% increase for port tariffs to be in phases, says Loke
(Free Malaysia Today)
Damen Mangalia Unionists Protest Friday Against Possible Closure
(The Romania Journal)
››› Press Review File
FORUM of Shipping
and Logistics
Relazione del presidente Nicola Zaccheo
Roma, 18 settembre 2024
››› File
Turkish ports set new first-quarter cargo traffic record
Ankara
Historic peak of cargo imported from abroad
In the first quarter of 2025, freight traffic in the port of Taranto grew by +37.6%
Taranto
Increase of 854 thousand tons of solid bulk and 265 thousand tons of conventional goods
DEME buys Havfram, a company that installs offshore wind farms
Second Right/Washington
Transaction worth approximately 900 million euros
Rail transport of convoys for Rome Metro started from Reggio Calabria
Rome
Contract awarded by Hitachi Rail to Mercitalia Rail
In 2024, the volumes handled by Magli Intermodal Service decreased by -2%
Rezzato
Turnover stable
Yang Ming records first decline in turnover in March after 14 months of growth
Keelung/Taipei
Evergreen and WHL revenue growth continues
The European Commission has approved the acquisition of Germany's Schenker by Denmark's DSV
Brussels
The impact on competition in the markets in which the two companies operate is considered limited
Fincantieri - Kayo Agreement to Promote the Development of the Shipbuilding and Naval Industry in Albania
Trieste
Possible creation of a hub for shipbuilding and refitting in the region
Recent slight reduction in logistics costs for new factory vehicles
Brussels
Montaresi (AdSP Liguria Orientale) awarded with the "Port Oscar"
Miami
The event has reached its eighteenth edition
In the first three months of 2025, containers carried by OOCL vessels increased by +9.3%
Hong Kong
Revenues up +16.8%
The AdSP of the Southern Tyrrhenian and Ionian Seas wins in appeal against Zen Yacht
Joy Taurus
Company ordered to pay back rent
A large shipment of cocaine was seized in the port of Livorno
Leghorn
Two tons of drugs identified by Customs and Financial Police personnel
Navantia renews agreement with American cruise group Royal Caribbean
Miami
To date, the Cadiz shipyard has carried out maintenance, repair and refurbishment work on 45 of the group's ships.
Record cruise traffic expected in Italian ports this year
Miami
Cemar believes that growth will not stop even in 2026
HII-HHI Agreement to Accelerate US and South Korean Naval Production
National Harbor
The aim is to strengthen the naval industrial base of the two nations.
Panama Ports Company Accused of Violating Terms of Concession Agreement
Panama
Panama's Auditor General announced the filing of criminal charges
Colombo West International Terminal has become operational
Ahmedabad
It has a traffic capacity of 3.2 million TEUs
The conference "New sustainable marine fuels - Decarbonize Shipping" will be held in Genoa on Monday
Genoa
The new multifunctional border control structure PCF - PED/PDI Point completed in the port of Gioia Tauro
Joy Taurus
"Artificial Intelligence Comes to Port" Conference in Rome on Friday
Rome
It is promoted by the National Union of Port Enterprises
MSC Group's new cruise terminal inaugurated in Miami
Miami
It can accommodate three large ships at the same time
In February, traffic in the port of Ravenna increased by +2.1%
Ravenna
Bulk cargo increases, miscellaneous cargo declines
In 2024, Ferrovie dello Stato Italiane recorded a net loss of -208 million euros
Rome
Revenues up by +11.7%. The group's freight transported increased thanks to the acquisition of Exploris
Port of Genoa, Ente Bacini requests new spaces and renewal of the concession
Genoa
Conference to celebrate the centenary of the company
The public meeting of the Italian Port Terminal Operators Association will be held in Rome on June 19th
Genoa
VARD to build offshore dive vessel for Dong Fang Offshore
Alesund/Trieste
The contract is worth 113.5 million euros
Next week Italian ports will participate in Seatrade Cruise Global
Rome
Initiative brand: "CruiseItaly - One Country, Many Destinations"
MSC Group Cruise Terminal Officially Inaugurated in the Port of Barcelona
Barcelona
In 2027 it will be equipped with a cold ironing plant
Marcegaglia and Nova Marine Carriers form NovaMar Logistic joint venture
Lugano/Gazoldo of the Ippoliti
A general cargo ship will transport raw materials to the steel group's plants
Liebherr achieves record annual sales in the maritime and port crane segment
Bulls
Strong demand for offshore and container handling equipment
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