While the European Parliament and the Council are debating the revision of the maritime ETS proposed in July by the European Commission ( of 17 July 2026), today in Brussels, during the workshop "EU ETS Maritime: Safeguarding European Transhipment" hosted by MEP Letizia Moratti, the main findings of the EU ETS and Southern Europe's container hubs: concrete results of transshipment relocation" created by Giovanni Satta, associate professor of the Department of Economics of the University of Genoa, developed by T.I.M. 10 Srl and promoted by Assarmatori.

The work, which confirms many trends already recorded by the EU-ETS Observatory of Spain's Puertos del Estado ( of 16 December 2025, 23 February and 31 July 2026, detects signs of a possible relocation transhipment traffic to non-EU ports and identifies some changes to scheduled services that could be traced back to introduction of the ETS. However, it does not demonstrate that all the observed changes were caused by the new system. The Spanish Observatory comes to similar conclusions from a street with an analysis based on AIS data and tracking of containers until March 2026.

The Italian study analyzes the scheduled services connected to four port hubs: Gioia Tauro, Marsaxlokk, Sines and Taranto. The document explains that the four ports have been selected in a way that to represent different geographical areas, transhipment profiles and competitive positions within maritime transport networks of containers in southern Europe. However, it is necessary to note that the Apulian port has been for a long time now, excluded from the main intercontinental traffic routes and which, as the study points out, in 2024 has handled only 16,114 TEUs with an incidence of transhipment of 49%. The study, evidently, has sample limitations, as four ports, one of which is marginal, do not represent the whole of the Mediterranean.

Study finds greater instability of services liner shipping in the post-ETS scenario, i.e. since the EU ETS emissions trading system is which has gradually entered into force for the maritime sector in from 1 January 2024. In particular, it notes that the total number of changes in services has gone from 211 in the pre-ETS scenario to 305 in the post-ETS scenario and that the potentially attributable to the ETS are not negligible, with 77 variations identified as potentially determined ETS and covering 41 of the 86 services analysed by the study.

In addition, the study points out that the number of changes potentially determined by the ETS has increased significantly between the two scenarios: in the pre-ETS scenario, 26 changes potentially attributable to the ETS have been identified, while in the ETS scenario this number has risen to 51. Among the services that - according to the analysis - show at least one change potentially determined by the ETS, the interregional ones They constitute the largest group, with 22 services affected (out of 43), followed by 18 global services (out of 31). Only one regional service (out of 12) has recorded a change potentially attributable to the ETS. The average number of changes monthly income has gone from 7.0 in the pre-ETS scenario, ranging from 14 July 2021 when the "Fit for 55" as at 31 December 2023, at 10.9 in the post-ETS scenario, which runs from January 1, 2024 to April 2026. In addition, it should be noted that whereas, compared to the pre-ETS scenario, the average number of changes per single service is increased for global services, going from 3.2 to 4.6 (+44%), and for interregional services, going from 2.4 to 3.7 (+54%), while on the contrary services decreased from 0.8 to 0.3 variations by service.

With regard to the possible transfer of traffic to transhipment from the four ports examined to competing ports North African countries, the study specifies that among the 20 historical services that no longer call at the ports of Gioia Tauro, Marsaxlokk, Sines and Taranto, eight have recorded at least one change potentially attributable to the EU ETS, for a total of ten variations. In most cases, these were services with global coverage (six out of eight).

The study therefore presents two cases considered emblematic of the Process of transferring transhipment traffic out by the EU, noting that in the Ocean Alliance's MED5 service, the Maltese port of Marsaxlokk has been replaced by the Egyptian of Alexandria, while in the Levante Express service of the MSC port of Gioia Tauro has been replaced by the Egyptian of Abu Qir.

The study then examines the potential economic and on employment for Europe, including Northern European ports, in the case of a transfer of 7.5%-15% of containerized traffic transhipment outside the EU, and highlights that, on a traffic total European level of 38-42 million TEUs per year, this means the loss of a volume of 2.85-6.3 million TEUs, annual revenues of €403-892 million, estimated on the basis of average Italian parameters, of a need for port investments €1.4-3.6 billion lower than needed to handle these volumes in the European hubs and 2,005-4,431 seats of related work. The loss of revenues is estimated on the Italian average parameters of 141.65 euros per TEU and that of employees of about 0.0007 workers per TEU.

The study also considers the original rule of the 300 nautical miles away from EU ports to exclude in non-EU ports within this radius by the definition of 'stopover' for the purposes of calculating journeys subject to the ETS, which has been strengthened by the Commission's proposal European with two new criteria: ports within 150 miles with requirements or ports within 300 miles with transhipment more than 50%. The analysis notes that this contrasts the stopovers elusive intermediate ports, but not the shift of transhipment to non-EU hubs, and also risks generating side effects negative unforeseen carbon leakage within the container transshipment market.

It should be remembered that, to date, the European Union's surveys on the possible shift of the transhipment activity of containers in non-EU ports were presented in March 2025 in the Report on the monitoring of the implementation of Directive No. 87 of 2003 ( of 19 March 2025). The Commission's report, which is now in its third quarter 2024 when only 40% of ETS allowances applied, concluded that there was no evidence of a relocation Transhipment and the changes observed in the network of sea routes were attributed mainly to the crisis in the Red. The ports of Piraeus and Marsaxlokk were losing traffic, but in parallel to the loss of ports of large ships throughout the basin oriental position. However, even the Commission's report does not excluded the risk of subtraction of transhipment volumes and reported the cases of the ports of Damietta and Nador to be monitored and a increase from 30% to 34% of intermediate stopovers in the United Kingdom in the US-EU routes.

A more up-to-date picture is also contained in the economic study commissioned by the Directorate-General for Mobility of the European Commission and published on 17 July, dedicated to the risk of carbon leakage in the sectors aviation and maritime transport. The analysis does not detect evidence a generalised relocation of activities or a systemic loss of competitiveness attributable to the ETS, but identifies future risks concentrated in certain areas of the Mediterranean, indicating precisely in the transfer of transhipment to the hub one of the most plausible scenarios.

On the occasion of today's presentation of the study the Assarmatori shipowners' association has highlighted that the Transfer of transhipment activities outside of Europe is already visible in the shipping market and it is a trend destined, without correctives, to consolidation, with an economic stake that could reach 892 million euros in annual revenues and 3.6 billion euros in equivalent port investments, but above all it would deprive Europe of strategic control over its supply chains supply, moreover at an extremely complicated geopolitically.

"Supply chain shocks related to ongoing conflicts - said the Secretary General of Assarmatori, Alberto Rossi - showed what happens when a strategic step, over which we do not exercise direct control, is interrupted. The "transfer" of the transshipment in Africa carries the real risk of transforming the continent in a new nerve center from a logistical point of view and geopolitical. Rather than a nerve center of scope geographical area, such as Suez or Bab el-Mandeb, Africa is becoming a center of congestion and significant dependency strategic for global supply chains. These are A question of logistical dependency and rivalry geopolitics, and which is of great importance not only because of the of the European Union's inability to control the security of port hubs outside their borders, but Also because port investments are often made by external powers: global private operators and foreign governments, in particular China, are pouring large sums of money in African port concessions to ensure control over the trade flows. Entrusting critical transhipment nodes to hubs controlled by rival geopolitical actors exposes economies to forced interruptions and retaliation in the event of tensions in other words, to a real risk of control asymmetrical".

If it is true - as Rossi pointed out - that China is investing heavily in Africa, including in port infrastructure, The study presented today, however, listing the operators who have invested in North African ports, confirms that currently port terminals on the southern shore of the Mediterranean, including those competitors of European transhipment ports, are owned and operated mainly by European or Western carriers and operators, including Hapag-Lloyd, Eurogate, Contship, CMA CGM, MSC and APM Terminals/Maersk, with China's Hutchison and COSCO among others.

"The issue - observed Cesare Crocini, head of of the Brussels Office of Assarmatori - is not only linked to the loss of competitiveness of our ports, the relocation of trafficking or jobs at risk. Here it is the logistical security of Italy and Europe is at stake. Who opposes a correction to the ETS mechanism that incentivises the transhipment betrays the spirit of union."

In order to avoid the risk of transferring volumes of transhipment traffic to non-EU ports, among the proposals presented to the European Parliament and the Council has accepted the compromise as the most promising promoted by MEP Peter Liese last week: the last version combines an incentive linked to the share of goods subjected to to transhipment in EU ports with a distance-based correction traveled. The mechanism - Assarmatori noted - thus integrates volume-based and distance-based approaches, consider travel and reduces the threshold from 10,000 to 5,000 TEUs size of eligible vessels. For the association, the changes would make it possible to better represent the services in and strengthen the incentive to maintain Europe's operations of long-haul hubs.