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09 February 2023 - Year XXVII
Independent journal on economy and transport policy
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COUNCIL OF INTERMODAL SHIPPING CONSULTANTSYEAR XXIII - Number 7/2005 - JULY 2005

Studi e ricerche

Gli analisti guardano avanti

Sono molte le preoccupazioni che continuano ad essere espresse in ordine alla domanda ed offerta futura per i servizi di linea. Parlando alla recente conferenza Freight UK 2005 di Containerisation International, Ben Hackett, amministratore delegato della Global Insight's International Consulting, con sede negli Stati Uniti, ha previsto come sia probabile che la crescita dei traffici mondiali continui a diminuire.

Sostiene infatti: "La crescita di quest'anno sarà buona, ma non grande, diminuendo dal 9% al 7,8%. La nostra principale preoccupazione riguarda i prossimi anni a venire, in particolar modo negli U.S.A. Stando così le cose, ci aspettiamo che la crescita dei traffici globali cali al 6.6% nel 2006, al 5,7% nel 2007 e ad una media del 4,5% nei prossimi tre anni. In breve, niente di serio di cui preoccuparsi, se si ignorano le grandi minacce dell'ulteriore incremento del prezzo dell'olio, del protezionismo commerciale ecc.".

BILANCIO DELL'OFFERTA E DELLA DOMANDA
DI NAVI CONTAINERIZZATE
SINO ALLA FINE DEL 2007 (TEU)

Crescita globale dei carichi

2005

2006

2007

Sostenuta (11-12%)

- 225.000

+ 125.000

0

Media (9%)

+ 100.000

+ 450.000

+ 325.000

Debole (6%)

+ 350.000

+ 725.000

+ 650.000

Note: - = disavanzo di offerta, + = eccedenza di offerta

Fonte: Howe Robinson

D'altro canto, Paul Dowell, capo del dipartimento ricerche della Howe Robinson, avvisa: "Il lato dell'offerta dell'equazione pende sul settore come la spada di Damocle, poiché si ritiene che il settore crollerà nel 2007. Anche se ciò non dovesse verificarsi, di sicuro esso è vulnerabile". Secondo l'analista, ci si aspetta che la capacità mondiale di navi containerizzate cresca dell'11% (875.000 TEU) quest'anno, seguita da un 15% nel 2006 (1.320.000 TEU) e dal 13% nel 2007 (1.300.000 TEU). Il problema è che la maggior parte di tale crescita è sbilanciata verso navi di dimensioni post-panamax impiegate nei traffici est-ovest.

Continua Dowell: "Con 94 di queste navi superiori ai 5.500 TEU in consegna nel 2006, l'effetto potrebbe essere catastrofico, nel caso la domanda globale si attenuasse. Al fine di assorbire il gran numero di navi in costruzione per i traffici est-ovest, i carichi dovranno crescere in quella direttrice del 15% quest'anno, seguito da un 25% nel 2006 e da un 22% nel 2007, il che è improbabile".

D'altro canto, Dowell afferma che vi sarà una carenza di navi per i traffici nord-sud e le rotte interregionali. Ignorando gli effetti variabili delle rottamazioni e della congestione portuale, la tabella riassume le opinioni complessive degli analisti su come ci si aspetti che cambi lo scenario globale.

I vettori marittimi restano divisi su tali previsioni, ma, commentando una programmazione su larga scala in occasione di un altro convegno, il presidente della CMA CGM Jacques Saadé ha osservato: "Ci aspettiamo per l'anno prossimo un'eccedenza di capacità in termini di navi in un certo numero di traffici, che continuerà fino alla fine del 2007 e comporterà una pressione sulle tariffe di nolo. Tuttavia, le nostre navi rimarranno ancora ben utilizzate, di modo che si tratterà di un atterraggio soffice".
(da: Containerisation International, giugno 2005, pag. 15)




FROM THE HOME PAGE
In 2022 the goods in the port of Naples grew by 6.3% percent, while in Salerno they fell by -15.8% percent.
In 2022 the goods in the port of Naples grew by 6.3% percent, while in Salerno they fell by -15.8% percent.
Naples
Resumption of cruerists and line passengers
The port of Ravenna closed 2022 with the new records of goods and cruises
The port of Ravenna closed 2022 with the new records of goods and cruises
Ravenna
Astounding the increase in cereals, in particular imports from Ukraine (664mila tonnes, + 195.4%)
At the Genovese shipyard in Fincantieri, the Explora II coin ceremony
At the Genovese shipyard in Fincantieri the ceremony of the currency of Explora II
Genoa
The new cruise ship will be delivered to Explora Journeys (MSC group) in August 2024
Wallenius Wilhelmsen closes 2022 with record results
Oslo
Wallenius Wilhelmsen closes 2022 with record results
Revenue grew by 30%
In Lombardy the first territorial agreement for welfare in the logistics sector, freight transport, and shipping
Milan
It has been signed by Filt-Cgil, Fit-Cisl, Uiltransport and Alsea
Maersk records record annual financial performance despite a negative fourth quarter
Maersk records record annual financial performance despite a negative fourth quarter
Copenhagen
In 2022 the cargoes carried by ships decreased by -8.9%
In the fourth quarter of 2022, Royal Caribbean's operating activity and revenues returned to pre-pandemic levels.
In the fourth quarter of 2022, Royal Caribbean's operating activity and revenues returned to pre-pandemic levels.
Miami
Record turnover for this time of year
In 2021 in the EU the services of short sea shipping transported 1.78 billion tonnes of cargo (+ 6.0%)
Brussels
In Italy the total was 314.5 million tonnes (+ 9.7%)
T&E denounces that Spain prevents an agreement in EU on decarbonisation of shipping
Brussels
Madrid would oppose the sub-quota of 2% percent of RFNBO proposed by the European Parliament
ST Engineering buys a shipyard of naval repairs of Keppel Offshore & Marine
Singapore
It is located in the Tuas area, in Singapore
Agreement between Italian Academy of the Mercantile Navy and the AdSP Ligure Eastern
The Spezia
It provides for the study and analysis of the training needs of workers at the port terminals of Spezia and Marina di Carrara
CMA CGM would be to acquire ride-hailing company La Méridionale
Marseille
Talks in progress with the STEF Group
Pine Musolino has been elected president of MEDPorts
Pine Musolino has been elected president of MEDPorts
Tunis
Jordi Torrent has been appointed as the secretary-general of the association
Positive components of income generated by 'white certificates' may be subject to tonnage tax
Rome
The Internal Revenue Agency said it was responding to an instance by the Grimaldi Group.
Last year the container traffic handled by HPH Trust decreased by -7.3%
Singapore
Last year the container traffic handled by HPH Trust decreased by -7.3%
The decline in activity occurred in the second half of 2022
Awarded the proposal of project financing for the nautical to be discharged in the port of Cagliari
Cagliari
Work will be carried out in three years
CMA CGM and Port Authority of Barcelona have been allowed to acquire the Puerto Seco Azuqueca
Madrid
Green light of the Spanish antitrust watchman
The third race for maritime links with the smaller Sardas will also be deserted.
Cagliari
Trade unions urge to review the tender ban, particularly under the economic profile
SAILING LIST
Visual Sailing List
Departure ports
Arrival ports by:
- alphabetical order
- country
- geographical areas
In the port of Civitavecchia, an illicit trafficking of direct waste in Africa has been stopped
Cyvitavecchia
Seized three batches of merchandise for an overall weight of 32 tons
Gruber Logistics opens two offices in Turkey
Gruber Logistics opens two offices in Turkey
Time
The aim is to increase traffic to and from Europe through the port of Trieste
Last year, freight traffic in Spanish ports grew by 3.5% percent.
Madrid
Last year, freight traffic in Spanish ports è grew by 3.5% percent
Reduction of containerized transit traffic. In the fourth quarter, there was a decline of -1.1% percent.
DP World has been awarded the race to make a container terminal in the port of Deendayal (Kandla)
Gandhidham
Joint venture Drydocks World-Aker Solutions to modernize FPSO units
Marfret boosts frequency of direct line service Italy-Egypt
Genoa
Enter a second ship
Cargotec and Konecranes record new annual and quarterly revenue records
Helsinki / Hyvinkää
In 2022 the value of new orders acquired by the two groups increased by 9.8% and 23.7% respectively
In 2022 the value of new orders acquired by ABB grew by 6.7%
Zurich
Results of trading activity recorded a trimming quarter after quarter
Last year, naval traffic in the Bosphorus Strait decreased by -8.8%
Ankara
Last year ship traffic in the Strait of Bosphorus è decreased by -8.8%
In the last quarter of 2022, the reduction was -5.1%
PORTS
Italian Ports:
Ancona Genoa Ravenna
Augusta Gioia Tauro Salerno
Bari La Spezia Savona
Brindisi Leghorn Taranto
Cagliari Naples Trapani
Carrara Palermo Trieste
Civitavecchia Piombino Venice
Italian Interports: list World Ports: map
DATABASE
ShipownersShipbuilding and Shiprepairing Yards
ForwardersShip Suppliers
Shipping AgentsTruckers
MEETINGS
In Livorno a three days of Assoports to deepen the aspects of urban transformation in the port city
Livorno
You will meet two technical groups ...
On Thursday in Milan a conference of Fedespedi on "The logistics digitalization and the PNRR"
Milan
Since 2020 the Federation has made its contribution to the construction of the Plan
››› Meetings File
PRESS REVIEW
L'Algérie investit 500 millions d'euros au Cameroun
(L'Expression)
3rd oil tanker body found, 5 workers still missing
(Bangkok Post)
››› Press Review File
FORUM of Shipping
and Logistics
Relazione del presidente Daniele Rossi
Napoli, 30 settembre 2020
››› File
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Editor in chief: Bruno Bellio
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