"China's growing dominance in the Global shipbuilding presents critical challenges to the economy and national security for the United States and its allies." The warning is contained in a report published today by the American think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) which examines the implications of the astonishing growth of the Chinese shipbuilding industry which - the document recalls - Only twenty years ago it was an almost irrelevant player in this market.

The report specifies that this rapid expansion is made possible by its dual-use shipbuilding model, i.e. active both in the commercial ship production segment and military ships. This dual use, according to the CSIS analysis, represents a critical challenge for the US as it is enabling to bridge the gap with the US naval forces, so much so that now the Navy of the People's Republic of China deploys more US Navy warships and - the report notes - "is on track to deploy a fleet of 425 ships by 2030, supported by an industrial base that is able to replace and repair ships much faster than to US shipyards".

The report points out that, "from an economic point of view, China's industrial policies are marginalizing US and allied shipbuilding industries. Japan and Korea of the South, once dominant, are also losing market share in advanced sectors such as the production of gas tankers Natural liquefied European shipbuilders are also facing increasing competition as China expands into high-tech markets high value like cruise ships. The shipbuilding sector U.S. commercial shipping was nearly canceled, with its market share dropped in 2024 to only 0.11% of the total global".

The report therefore urges the adoption by the US of decisive measures to address the challenges posed by Chinese industry shipbuilding industry, with policies focused on different objectives starting from the active fight against the "fusion civil-military" adopted by Chinese shipyards "interrupting the inflows of foreign capital and technology into the shipyards and the reduction of the "dominance of China in the world shipbuilding industry". « Experiences in sectors such as solar panels and batteries for electric vehicles, in which US companies and allies have been almost completely ousted from the market by the low-cost Chinese production - explains the document - offer relevant warnings about what can happen without an intervention. Take measures to limit disproportionate China's influence will promote economic security not not only of the United States, but also of key US allies such as the South Korea and Japan. The erosion of market dominance will also indirectly support the first objective of limit Beijing's ability to exploit its industry commercial shipbuilding to support its modernization of the military fleet through its merger strategy civil-military".

In addition, the report urges to "encourage affiliation to important allies of the United States, namely South Korea South and Japan, as a counterweight to China." To this end, In this regard, the document notes that "there is too much demand and not enough capacity outside China (the Chinese shipyards currently cover 62% of the portfolio global orders until 2033). It's just as unrealistic – the authors of the document note - expect the United States to become a major player in the market in the short to medium term global shipbuilding. Also reach a quota of 5% market would require an almost 50-fold increase in the national production. While the United States can take measures to increase its industrial capacity - specifies the report - should also prioritise the strengthening the competitiveness of South Korea and the Japan compared to their Chinese counterparts. This represents the most efficient and viable strategy to expand alternative market options outside China." The The document therefore calls for the promotion of the capacity to U.S. National Shipbuilding in Key Segments for the national security rather than focusing on competition direct with China.

The analysis of the American CSIS, which seems to respond to the expressed by President Donald Trump, also suggests that introduce a scalable system of port charges to be applied to shipping companies operating ships built in China on the along the lines of the system proposed by United States Trade Representative, "but - the report specifies - with considerable Changes. The main problem with the USTR proposal - explains the document - is that it is designed to impose burdens on the purchase of any Chinese-made vessel. It does not distinctions between which Chinese ships are purchased. Of consequently, the regime only achieves economic objectives". According to the CSIS report, "a better-designed proposal could achieve the same economic objectives and at the same time achieve key objectives for national security". "Also taking into consideration a limited sample of the types of activities affected by the USTR proposal - continues the report - reveal the far-reaching impacts that could on the maritime transport and shipbuilding sectors naval ». Referring to the top ten ship operators container ships serving U.S. ports and relying on only on the share of Chinese-built ships in their fleet, the The report notes that "at a minimum, the taxes assessed on these ten companies, which collectively account for around 70% of the container ship traffic in U.S. ports, would amount to over eight billion dollars a year". The In fact, the report specifies that, on the basis of the stopovers made in the US ports in 2019-2024 and the share of ships built in China as part of its fleet, MSC, which is the operator world market leader, would have to pay port fees on the basis of the USTR's proposal of $2.00 billion per year; Maersk would pay annual taxes of 1.24 billion, the CMA CGM of 1.30 billion, Hapag-Lloyd of 702 million, ONE of 921 million, the Chinese COSCO at 650 million, Evergreen at 297 the US Seaboard Marine at 458 million, the ZIM at 331 million million and China's OOCL at $276 million. The report therefore recommends that, "instead of assigning docking fees based only on the share of total Chinese-built ships within the of a company's fleet', are defined as taxes that "are partly weighted on the basis of the Chinese shipyards that They built those ships. This - it is explained - would allow to exert more pressure on China by targeting specific shipyards".

Among other recommendations, it calls for measures to be taken to attracting foreign investment in the shipbuilding industry "encouraging and incentivizing the main global players, in particular South Korea and Japan, invest in U.S. shipyards. Politics - he continues The document - should also court European companies, which are world leaders in high-tech industries shipbuilding. This would bring jobs, skills and capital that is so much needed in U.S. industry."