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21:20 GMT+2
CENTRO INTERNAZIONALE STUDI CONTAINERS
ANNO XXXVIII - Numero APRILE 2020
MARITIME TRANSPORT
CONTAINER SHIPPING CAPACITY DOWN 11% IN APRIL -EESEA
A total of 302 of 2,693 containership sailings, or 11%, have
been canceled in May on all the main line trades, according to the
latest data from maritime intelligence company eeSea, revealing the
extent of the impact of COVID-19 on global shipping.
In the first six months of 2020, a total of 1,675 sailings have
been canceled, or 11%; which comes out at 13% for 2M, 17% for Ocean
Alliance and 17% for THE Alliance, while only 8% of non-alliance
sailings have been canceled.
However, the number of sailings alone only tells part of the
story. Commenting on the numbers, Simon Sundboell, CEO and Founder
of eeSea, said, "Understandably, 'blank sailings' are the talk
of the town among container shipping and supply chain professionals
these days. But to truly understand the impact, you need to look
beyond the daily trickle of carrier advisories and the number of
canceled sailings. Instead, you need to look at the reduction of
container shipping capacity and the pattern that is forming for the
weeks and months ahead."
Accounting for variations in vessel capacities between services,
as well as taking into account entirely ceased services (beyond
blanked voyages and temporarily suspended services), the resulting
reductions in capacity offers a similar picture. However, the
critical information is in the detail.
On, for example, the Far East - North America eastbound head
haul (including Suez services), the actual deployed vs proforma
capacity ratio, after blanks and suspensions, for May is 80% -
almost as big a reduction as the February ratio of 71%. YoY
(year-on-year), including discontinued services, the reduction in
May is 21%.
eeSea produces these numbers globally, for all trades, services
and carriers, down to a daily port departure level.
Says Simon Sundboell: "If I were a shipper in Asia or a
buyer in Europe, this is the number that is critical to my business,
including whether my shipments could be at risk; and how to plan
contingencies."
The other benchmark head haul trade, Far East to Europe
westbound, shows similar capacity reductions. Details are outlined
in the appendix below; of note, however, is that in June Ocean
Alliance will overtake 2M as the largest alliance on the trade lane
for the first time since Oct 2019.
Carriers and ports are likewise offered these numbers for
bench-marking purposes.
"A lot is happening these days, and it can be hard to keep
a tab on it. This is why we at eeSea track it all in real-time. We
map blanked - or 'void' - sailings, as well as discontinued and
suspended services, as soon as the announcements are made. Sometimes
announcements aren't made, so we also track the carriers' schedules
frequently and discover unannounced blank sailings."
Per April 22, the status on the major trade routes is as
follows:
FAR EAST - EUROPE HEAD HAUL (Med + Northern Europe)
Far East to Europe westbound will see 14% of sailings, or 18 of
127 sailings, canceled in April. This corresponds to a capacity
reduction of 12%.
This is down from 36% canceled sailings in February, and 21% in
March. Currently, 19% of sailings in May are already announced as
canceled, and 12% in June.
THE Alliance has canceled 22% of their April FEA-EUR sailings,
and already canceled 32% in May and 34% in June. 2M and Ocean
Alliance are at respectively 12% and 10% in April, and 16% and 12%
in May. However, it should be noted that Ocean Alliance canceled 40%
and 30% of FEA-EUR sailings in February and March.
Over the six-month period from January to June, the alliances
have canceled 18% of FEA-EUR sailings, with Ocean Alliance at 17%,
THE Alliance at 23% and 2M at 14%.
With the currently announced capacity reductions, 2M will drop
below Ocean Alliance in actual deployed capacity in June for the
first time since Oct 2019.
For the first half of 2020, the current announced reductions
amount to a 17% YoY drop in deployed capacity, from 11.2m in 2019 H1
to 9.5m TEU in 2020 H1.
FAR EAST - NORTH AMERICA HEAD HAUL (East + West coasts, inc.
Suez service)
Transpacific eastbound will see 234 of 249 sailings, or 14%,
canceled in April. This corresponds to a reduction in capacity of
13%.
This is still down from the 28% canceled sailings in February.
March saw 9% canceled, and currently 20% of sailings in May are
announced canceled, and 15% in June.
THE Alliance has canceled 19% of sailings on Transpacific
eastbound in April. 2M and Ocean Alliance are at 16% and 11%,
respectively.
However, over the six-month period from January to June, the 2M,
Ocean and THE alliances have canceled 18%, 12% and 19% of sailings
respectively.
For the first half of 2020, the current announced reductions
amount to a 16.5% YoY drop in deployed capacity, from 12.4m in 2019
H1 to 10.7m TEU in 2020 H1.