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The containership market in 2002

The freight market
Fleet growth versus demand
The operators
The fleet
The second-hand market

The year 2002 can be summed up as a year of convalescence, after the 2001 traumas, while 2003 is hopefully to see full health recovered ' at least in the absence of any unpredictable event.

Indeed, 2002 has been also a transitional year on another front, as new, stringent rules on container content monitoring and cargo manifests have been elaborated by the U.S. administration to prevent unwanted weapons entering the U.S. The year 2003 will see these rules coming into force.

During the implementation phase, hiccups will surely occur, resulting in ship delays. Carriers said that they will have to pass the costs of these measures onto shippers, although it is not yet clear if it will be through rate increases or through a 'U.S. cargo manifest' surcharge.

The freight market

2002 has been a mixed year, with varying fortunes witnessed by operators. Some of them expected to close the year with comfortable profits while others are deep in the red.

Charter rates for containerships have increased by around 75 % on average since the January 2002 lows. At least the rise lasted until November, when the winter season and its lower volumes of cargoes started to take effect.

Rates eased slightly during the last weeks of 2002, but were expected to rise again in the first quarter of 2003. Relatively strong rates can be anticipated for the next summer season, boosted by traditional high seasonal volumes and a well-balanced supply / demand ratio.

The larger the ship, the more volatile the rates. This is well illustrated by the fluctuation in rates for modern 3,500 teu ships, which plunged from $ 25 / 26,000 in the Summer 2000 to $ 10,000 in January 2002. They have recovered month after month in the first part of 2002 to stagnate around $ 17,500 in the second part of the year. Meanwhile, rates for 1,100 teu ships went down from $ 9,500 (summer 2000) to $ 5,250 (January 2002), and $ 7,000 / 7,500 during the last quarter 2002.

Having plunged under the $ 6,000 mark in January 2002, the rates for 1,700 teu ships -such as the B-170s- have risen to reach $ 9,500 in October 2002 before easing just under $ 9,000 at the year end. There is some way to go before flirting again with the $15,000 figure of the summer 2000.

The fleet of cellular ships over 1,000 teu identified as idle (not including those which underwent routine general repairs) has decreased from 160,000 / 180,000 teu during the first four months of 2002 to around 60,000 teu during the summer. Is was expected to increase slightly after the summer season, but it did not, thanks to the lock-out in the USWC ports, which has prolonged artificially the demand for 1,000 to 2,500 teu ships in order to scoop up the boxes left in Asia by delayed main-line ships. At the beginning of 2003, the idle fleet stood at 65,000 teu. Interestingly, there were no large ships identified as mothballed. The situation is indeed very different from one year ago.

Industrial production is rising again in most south east Asian countries while the export boom in China seems endless. As this region of the world generates high containerised cargo volumes, it governs the supply/demand balance in container transportation more than other regions.

In 2001, the world seaborne trade contracted by 1 %. It is now growing again. After a period of stalling during the winter 2001-2002, the demand in container transportation has, surprisingly, recovered above all expectations. The volume of containers carried at sea is expected to grow by 7 or 8 % in 2003, in line with growth rates observed in the 1990s.

The demand in container transportation may even surpass these figures. The cellular fleet has risen by 10.8 % per annum over the past 7 years. The way the market has absorbed this extra capacity is remarkable. So, with an expected cellular fleet growth of 'only' 7.5 % per annum for the years 2003 and 2004, the market will be on the owners side.

Another factor which may have a strong impact on rates is the trend of East Asian-U.S. cargoes shifting from the U.S. West Coast ports to the U.S. East Coast, to the detriment of rail 'landbridges'. The Panamax ships of 4,000+ teu are much sought after for the Far East-USEC services that have to transit the Panama Canal.

The longer transportation distance means that eight or nine ships are needed on such services instead of five or six for the Far East-USWC option. Assuming that, say, four new Far East-USEC routes are launched, it means that a dozen supplementary Panamax ships are needed. This can be sufficient to create a shortage of such ships, and could send the charter rates soaring for 4,000 teu ships.

Fleet growth versus demand

The fleet growth is expected to match the rise in demand, at least during the years 2003 and 2004. A tight market may well even develop if the 10 to 11 % growth in containership demand observed since the mid-1990s is to continue.

This spectacular growth rate of the cellular fleet will not be repeated in the two years to come. It will hover around 7.5 % (see accompanying table). This will lead to a fleet of 7 million teu in January 2005, up from 6 million teu in January 2003 and 3 million teu in January 1996.

In fact, to keep up with the average yearly increases of 7 % in the seaborne container trade observed during the past decade, the cellular fleet should have grown from 3 million teu in 1996 to 4.8 million teu in early 2003 (notwithstanding the increase in average ship speed and box handling productivity).

So, the extra 1.2 million teu of on board capacity added to reach the 6 million teu figure has been filled with goods which were either already containerised, but were moved on general cargo vessels or simply not containerised half a decade ago. Breakbulk liner services continue to fade away as the cargoes they carry shift to the box (see inset).

This leads to think that, in the first instance, owners and operators were right to invest so massively in container tonnage. However, the balance is fragile. Most operators are struggling in trying to make profits, and economic accidents are catastrophic for the bottom line.

The dwindling breakbulk services

As the container continues to make inroads into the breakbulk sector, the surviving regular conventional services see their volumes dwindle year after year, vanishing like fading stars. Each year brings it examples. In 2002, the U.S. Gulf-Brasil service operated by Brasilian operator Global Transporte Oceanico (GBTO) was closed. This service used to be run with up to five 17,000 dwt / 500 teu ships in the mid 1990s (mostly Astrakhan tonnage), then lost progressively its grip on the market as competitive container services were incessantly upgraded, up to the unavoidable weekly frequency and with unbeatable transit times. High volumes of specific cargoes (such as CKDs - Cars Knocked Down) and the boxes still carried on these multipurpose ships were more and more siphoned off by full container ships, while cheaper box rates helped to attract low value 'breakbulk' cargoes. And as the cargoes flee the conventional ships, less and less sailings were offered. Eventually, these services lost their remaining appeal with regular shippers.