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28 de noviembre de 2023 - Año XXVII
Periódico independiente sobre economía y política de transporte
14:02 GMT+1
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Shipping and Shipbuilding Markets in 2004

I N D E X

FORUM de lo shipping y
de la logística



The dry bulk market in 2004

 


The dry bulk market

The second-hand market:
     Capesize - Panamax - Handymax & Handysize


Together with all the other sectors of the shipping market, 2004 was an exceptional year in the dry bulk. On the back of a very strong surge at the end of 2003, rates peaked in March before taking a plunge until the end of June. Then, they rebounded until December to reach and sometimes surpass previously established records. One only has to look at the figures of the following daily returns: $ 35,000 per day for a Handymax, $ 50,000 per day for a Panamax, and over $ 100,000 per day for a Capesize.

World demand for industrial dry bulk commodities increased sharply and exerted a strong pressure on charterers. All raw materials were affected. Demand took off, notably in the coal and ore sectors, which represent over half of the total volumes. Tonnage transported for iron ore went from roughly 520 million tons in 2003 to about 570 million tons in 2004. Coking coal increased from about 185 million tons to nearly 200 million and steam coal from over 420 million tons to 440, an overall rise of 7 %.

Depending on sources, the growth in volume in 2005 is expected to be around 5.5 to 6 %. Such figures make people fill dizzy and cannot be compared with what was experienced during the last fifteen years where we usually saw an average growth of 2 to 4 % depending on the years.

There is one key player who emerges from any analysis of the market: namely China. Having shown its potential over recent years, the rise in strength of the country has never been as clearly defined as in 2004.

The press has largely been following and reporting this phenomenon. Carried along by strong growth, Chinese demand for steel grew by more than 13 % in 2004 over the year. According to the Chinese Association for Ore and Steel (CSIA), domestic production went from 225 million tons in 2003 to 270 in 2004, with the aim of reaching 300 million tons in 2005.

At the same time, imports of iron ore went from 110 million tons in 2002 to nearly 200 million tons in 2004 (of which 80 million tons originating from Australia and from Brazil). As a result, there was heavy congestion in loading and discharging ports at the beginning of the year, which inevitably affected the global supply of available tonnage. This situation improved as from March when the Chinese authorities became aware of the extent of the problem and decided to implement de-stocking measures in the ports. Once begun, freight rates started to drop significantly.

During the month of June demand took off again, thus indicating that the efforts by the Chinese government to slow down economic growth were insufficient, precipitating another sharp rise in rates. Swept along by the dynamics of the market and the anticipation of high freight levels, this in turn provoked a surge in time-charter activity.

At the same time, operators became actively engaged on the freight futures market. Encouraged by the volatility of the physical market, a number of players found an answer to their needs of getting forward cover with derivatives. In many respects, it could be said that 2004 paved the way towards a maturing of these markets. It is worth noting that their influence in the decision making process for both owners and charterers, especially on contracts of affreightment and period charters, is growing.

Simultaneously, and also to reduce their exposure to an increasing volatility of the market, the main charterers and owners have been putting an emphasis on concluding long term partnerships, giving a long term business flow to the latter and a guarantee of regularity and stability in supply costs to the former.

However in this euphoric context, there are some signs that suggest a certain caution, starting with the rising supply of tonnage.
 

   

 

Ingrid Oldendorff
75,000 dwt, built in 2005 by Jiangnan, operated by Oldendorff Carriers

Numerous orders placed in 2003 and 2004 will start to be handed over to the market in 2005 and 2006. This historically high level of deliveries combined with a virtually non-existent volume of demolition should eventually start to have consequences on the market balance during the next few years.

Thus for Capesize, 8 million dwt were delivered in 2004, 8.7 are due in 2005 and 9.5 in 2006. For Panamax, 6 million dwt were delivered in 2004, and in 2005 the figure should be 6.8 million dwt. And for the Handymax, after 4.5 million dwt added in 2004, 6.2 million dwt can be expected in 2005!
 


 

Some factors could act in the favour of reducing the pace of delivery, for instance, the first being the price of steel and the difficulties shipyards have in buying engines. There is a high probability that we shall see numerous delays in deliveries. On the demand side, the slightest change in the economic policy of the Chinese government, with implications on imports and exports, will be measured in the light of the strategic role played by China today on the international scene. Based on CISA forecasts, the level of ore imports should reach 240 million tons in 2005, an increase of around 20 % compared to the 40 % witnessed in 2004.

Finally, a serious question mark remains as to the capacity of the main Australian and Brazilian ports to be able to handle the increase in demand as, at the same time, their productivity seems to be unable to improve in the short term. If this congestion phenomenon lasts, this will prevent a further growth of the trade flow and consequently new tonnage that will be introduced on the market would generate a surplus. Some old ships could then find their way to the scrapyards.

2004 will therefore be classified as an outstanding vintage, a historic year that is only seen once in a lifetime. This year has signalled the break with the long decades of cheap or even undervalued transport. The importance that China has acquired in world trade and her appetite for raw materials, has been and will remain the determining factor within the market evolution. The imbalance between supply and demand has led freight rates to levels never achieved before.

However, one should not underestimate the impact that the massive deliveries of new ships will have and although it is difficult to measure precisely, it will logically push owners to sell some older ships for scrap. In addition, even if demand is strong, the logistical difficulties encountered either with the distribution network or with port infrastructures, as well as a possible slowing down of China's imports, could cast a shadow on the market.
 


 

The second-hand market

 

The second-hand market for Capesize (80,000 dwt and more) 2003

Unbelievable!

Swallowed up like so many others by the ferocious appetite of China for raw materials, freight rates took off to levels that nobody would have imagined and even less hoped for. The scarcity of berths for newbuildings helped feed this frenzy to purchase second-hand ships or newbuilding contracts with prompt delivery, the latter being able to be quickly repaid given the rates they can obtain on the market.

When in December 2003, a 5 years old 170,000 dwt ship, built in a good shipyard was worth about $ 48 to 49 million, its value was close to $ 62 million in March 2004!

At the end of June or early July, after a rather severe correction in the market, brought about by statements from the Chinese Prime Minister concerning necessary measures which were needed to slow down the economy that had become overheated, this same type of ship saw its value drop back to a level of around $ 45 million.

However the market did not cool off for long and the year ended with prices rising again to $ 65 to 66 million.

We have been able to record some fifty transactions in the course of this extremely active year.

It is surprising to see that the rise in values has affected all ships irrespective of age and that a number of new buyers have emerged, principally Chinese, for whom purchasing has rapidly become an alternative to chartering at prohibitive rates.

In order to stay in the competition, some transactions have often been made without any inspection being carried out on the ship.

At the end of the year a distinct bullish trend was still clearly perceptible.
 


 

Eric LD 
169,900 dwt, built in 1999 by Daewoo HI, sold at the end of the year by Louis Dreyfus Armateurs to Diana Shipping Agencies

The Panamax, Handymax & Handy bulk carrier second-hand market

For all of us in shipping, 2004 will be the year we shall remember for a very long time. We thought that 2003 was THE year but 2004 surpassed all expectations. We had concluded last year's review by stating: 'If the world economic data and indicators available can be considered as reliable then we would expect the dry bulk freight market to remain at levels considered as very firm and we would not therefore expect bulk carrier prices to ease off any time soon. In fact we would expect prices to firm further, so, for those contemplating an investment in dry bulk tonnage the sooner this is undertaken the better it will be' and we added 'Today's extremely firm price becomes tomorrow's normal market price and a few weeks later it is considered as cheap'.

This was exactly what happened and even more, much more '

Prices for second-hand tonnage followed the freight market increases without a miss. On some occasions the increase in values was much more important than the equivalent freight rate increase, as buyers and sellers alike were anticipating further increases.

Comparing second-hand values, for the various sizes under consideration, at the end of 2004 against those at the end of 2003 we've noted:

an average of 45 % to 65 % increase in the Panamax size, an average of 50 % to 60 % increase in the Handymax size, an average of 40 % to 50 % increase in the Handy size.

Demolition sales remained at an all time low and of course prices achieved by dry bulk tonnage sold for demolition remained extremely high. They moved from $ 270-275 per ldt at the end of 2003 to the 'astronomical' levels of $ 370-380 for vessels sold for demolition to India, whereas the Chinese were paying about $ 320 per ldt at the end of 2004 compared to about $ 290 about 12 months earlier.

2004 was the year of the large 'en-bloc' deals, it was also the year when traditional tanker owners diversified in the dry bulk sector, the year during which a 15 to 20 year-old bulk unit was worth more than ever before, prompting several owners (e.g. Oceanbulk Maritime) to sell a large number of such vintage ladies and at last the year of some successful Initial Public Offerings (IPO's) shipping companies (mostly Greek controlled) managing and involved in dry bulk vessels, in the U.S. public equity markets.

Among these 'en-bloc' transactions it is worth noting:

  • The Restis group acquisition for $ 740 million of the whole MISC dry bulk fleet consisting of 32 bulk carriers (9 Panamaxes, 9 Handymaxes and 14 Handies)

  • The General Maritime Group (Peter Georgiopoulos), acquisition for $ 420 million of the Top Glory fleet consisting of 16 bulk carriers (5 Panamaxes, 6 Handymaxes and 5 Handies)

  • Precious Shipping concluded a number of en-bloc acquisitions in the Handysize segment (all mid/early 1980's built): 9 Handies from PNSL (Malaysia) in March, 6 Handies from Pacific Basin in February and in addition, there were linked to another 10 to 12 purchases of Handies over the year.

Some of the traditional tanker owners have been actively participating in the dry bulk carriers second-hand market, like General Maritime (mentioned earlier), Frontline (John Fredriksen), and others.
 

Ship's values evolution

At the end of the year a 10 year-old Panamax bulk carrier was worth about $ 32 to 33 million, representing an increase of about 65 % over the past 12 months, a 5 year-old Panamax bulk carrier was worth about $ 40 million, which represents about 48 % appreciation when compared to the value recorded one year earlier.

A 10 year-old Handymax bulk carrier was worth about $ 25 million, representing an increase of about 55 % over a period of 12 months, a 5 year-old Handymax bulk carrier was worth about $ 31 million, which represents a 55 % appreciation when compared to the same period one year earlier in December 2003.

A 10 years old Handy bulk carrier was worth about $ 16 million, representing an increase of about 45 % over a period of 12 months, a 5 years old Handy bulk carrier was worth about $ 21.5 million, which represents a 48 % appreciation when compared to how much it was worth one year earlier in December 2003.
 

Prospects

Concluding this year's review of the second-hand dry bulk carrier markets, the eternal and unavoidable question is still on everyone's mind 'How long will this freight market and consequently the second-hand market last?' There is no clear answer and as always all involved in shipping will be trying to analyse the world economic data, the supply and demand situation which is fundamental in all markets, but, more importantly, everybody will be looking closely to the Chinese economy and the availability or rather the non-availability of building berths for dry bulk carriers (in the sizes we have been referring to).

We may therefore witness the second-hand prices for Panamax, Handymax and Handy bulkers behaving in a much more volatile style than during the past 12 to 24 months and as such any investment in this sector should be pursued cautiously. The other face of the coin, would of course be to capitalise on the present very high values and sell any tonnage, purchased at much lower levels.
 

›››Archivo
DESDE LA PRIMERA PÁGINA
Aún una cuarta parte de la caída de las mercancías en los puertos de la Unión Europea
Kirchberg
En los tres primeros meses de 2023, con la excepción de los graneles líquidos a granel, disminuyeron todos los tipos de cargas.
Meyer Turku entregó el Icono de los mares a Royal Caribbean International
Meyer Turku entregó el Icono de los mares en Royal Caribbean International
Miami/Turku
Tiene un tonelaje bruto de 250.800 toneladas y puede acomodar hasta 5.610 pasajeros
Una delegación de Confitarma ha sido recibida por el gobierno
Roma
Ilustrar las necesidades y expectativas, agotadas y no, del sector armador
Transbordador no tripulado varado en Sicilia
Roma
Debido a la rotura del cable del remolque el barco "Lider Prestij" ha permanecido en el balmis de las olas
Las asambleas de los socios de Attica de Grecia y Anek han aprobado la fusión de las empresas.
Kallithea/La Canea
Votación favorable casi unánime
En el tercer trimestre, el tráfico de mercancías en el puerto de Palermo disminuyó un -10,2%
Palermo
Cruceros y pasajeros de 43,0 %-año en ferries en 6,5%
Dos ofertas para adquirir el 58% del capital de HMM de Corea del Sur
Seúl
Fueron presentados por Harim y Dongwon Industries, mientras que LX International ha renunciado
FEPORT destaca los riesgos de pérdida de competitividad de los puertos y terminales de la UE con la aplicación del RCDE UE al transporte marítimo
Bruselas
Bonz: Es necesario llevar a cabo ahora un estudio sobre el impacto y no en dos años
En el tercer trimestre las mercancías en los puertos de Nápoles y Salerno disminuyeron en -4.0% por ciento y -1.7% por ciento.
Nápoles
En los primeros nueve meses de 2023, los pushups fueron -3.0% por ciento y -4.4% por ciento, respectivamente.
Puerto de Gioia Tauro, también reducido para 2023 el importe de las tasas de anclaje
Alegría Tauro
La medida pretendía ser de 1,5 millones de euros de los gastos corrientes de la AdSP.
En el tercer trimestre de 2023 nuevo declive coyuntural en el comercio de bienes de las naciones del G20
París
Continuación de la desaceleración, especialmente en Asia Oriental y Europa
Avance para establecer un marco legislativo uniforme para el transporte de mercancías por ferrocarril en los corredores euroasiáticos
Ginebra
En febrero, con la luz verde del Comité de Transporte Interior de la CEPE, el Convenio sobre el Contrato de Transporte Internacional de Mercancías podrá ser firmado por todos los Estados
El contraalmirante Antonio Ranieri ha sido nombrado Comisario Extraordinario de la AdSP del Estrecho
Roma
Es director marítimo y comandante del puerto de Catania
ECSA se satisface a mitad del Parlamento de la UE a las normas para el CO2 de los camiones
Bruselas
Raptis: Cualquier incentivo adicional innecesario tendrá el efecto de restar combustible limpio al transporte marítimo
El Consejo General de Confitarma vota por unanimidad a Zanetti como nuevo presidente designado
Maersk firma acuerdo con Goldwind chino para suministros a gran escala de metanol verde
Copenhague
Se espera un volumen anual de 500milas toneladas a partir de 2026
Parlamento Europeo: propuesta del Parlamento Europeo de reducir las emisiones de CO2
Estrasburgo/Bruselas
T&E, lanzó un salvavidas a la industria petrolera apoyando la escapatoria de los biocombustibles
ECSA, la luz verde del Parlamento de la UE al proyecto de reglamento Net Zero Industry Act
Bruselas
El reconocimiento de que los combustibles marítimos sostenibles son tecnologías de impacto cero es un avance significativo.
Al final de la Opa en HHLA el grupo MSC tiene alrededor del 14% del capital de la empresa terminalista
Hamburgo
Con las acciones en la mano en la administración ciudad-estado de Hamburgo el total sube a 84, 21%, menor que el umbral del 90% que atraería la compresión fuera
Ancip, Assiterminal, Assologistics, Assoports y Uniport proponen reconocer el trabajo usurpador a algunas secciones de los trabajadores portuarios
Génova
Acuerdo entre la AdSP de la Liguria Occidental y la Policía Estatal por el contraste con los ciberdelitos
Génova
El objetivo es mejorar y perfeccionar la seguridad de TI de la institución y el clúster de puertos
Es probable que los organismos antimonopolio del Reino Unido no recomienden la renovación de la exención por categoría para los transportistas marítimos.
Es probable que los organismos antimonopolio del Reino Unido no recomienden la renovación de la exención por categoría para los transportistas marítimos.
Liberado el petrolero Central Park
Tampa
La intervención de la Fuerza Marítima Combinada TF 151 hizo que los atacantes se desistaran, obligados a rendirse.
Un barco decomisado en el Golfo de Adén y un avión no tripulado en el Océano Indico
Ataques al petrolero "Central Park" y al buque contenedor "CMA CGM Symi"
Gruber Logistics ha abierto una nueva sucursal en Francia
Tiempo
Tiene su sede en Lyon y se centrará en proporcionar servicios logísticos integrales
Los puertos de la hélice Club de La Spezia y Marina di Carrara nace
Marina di Carrara
En la asociación, el número de miembros inscritos está creciendo desde el puerto de apusian.
Entrega de entregas a la cumbre del Sistema Portuario del Estrecho de Estrecho
Messina
Mega ha recordado los obstáculos encontrados a lo largo de su mandato
PROXIMAS SALIDAS
Visual Sailing List
Salida
Destinación:
- orden alfabético
- nación
- aréa geogràfica
Concluyó el proceso de autorización para construir los cajones de la nueva presa foranea en Génova para ir a Ligure
Génova
Inicialmente se harán cinco que se colocarán en defensa de la obra.
Ok of the City Council at the Regulatory Plan of the Marina Port of Carrara
Marina di Carrara
Satisfacción de la ADSP por la luz verde a la nueva herramienta de planificación esperada desde 1981
Impala Terminals compra en la subasta el HES Hartel Tank Terminal en Rotterdam
Ginebra
La construcción de la terminal para graneles líquidos en el puerto holandés se completará gracias a una nueva inversión
Un Reglamento de Ejecución especifica los términos de gestión de las compañías navieras para el RCDE UE
Bruselas
Se ha publicado hoy en el Diario Oficial de la Unión Europea
Hapag-Lloyd inaugura un nuevo centro de computación en Chennai
Hamburgo
Se hace en asociación con los Solverminds de la India
La OMMP tunecina ha ordenado seis remolcadores en el astillero turco Med Marine
Estambul/La Goulette
Se trata de medios con una capacidad de tracción de 60 toneladas
Rhenus Overland Italia compra Pesenti Transport & Logistics
LAUZAC
La compañía tiene una flota de 25 tractores y 50 entre remolques y semirremolque
Colaboración de Fincantieri e IIT para la robótica aplicada a la asistencia y seguridad de los operadores
Trieste/Génova
Conferencia sobre cambios en la logística portuaria
Ravenna
Se celebrará en el primer diciembre en Ravenna
Del cilindro de la reforma del puerto nacerá una empresa
Palermo
Un Spa Central que seleccionaría la inversión
El nuevo Marebonus se encuentra en "Boletín Oficial"
Palermo
Rixi: Desde el 6 de diciembre, la plataforma de TI estará disponible para acceder a los incentivos
PUERTOS
Puertos italianos:
Ancona Génova Rávena
Augusta Gioia Tauro Salerno
Bari La Spezia Savona
Brindisi Liorna Taranto
Cagliari Nápoli Trapani
Carrara Palermo Trieste
Civitavecchia Piombino Venecia
Interpuertos Italianos: lista Puertos del mundo: Mapa
BANCO DE DATOS
Armadores Reparadores navales y astilleros
Expedicionarios Abastecedores de bordo
Agencias marítimas Transportistas
MEETINGS
Conferencia sobre cambios en la logística portuaria
Ravenna
Se celebrará en el primer diciembre en Ravenna
Conferencia de Uniport sobre el futuro de la portualidad italiana
Roma
Se celebrará el 5 de diciembre en Roma
››› Archivo
RESEÑA DE LA PRENSA
Ports cyber hack reveals Australia's 'vulnerability' to attack
(The New Daily)
Economy Minister: Anaklia port project developing “according to plan”, “no delays” in deadlines
(Agenda.ge)
››› Reseña de la Prensa Archivo
FORUM de lo shipping y
de la logística
Relazione del presidente Mario Mattioli
Roma, 27 ottobre 2023
››› Archivo
Meyer Werft aumenta su presencia en el segmento offshore
Papenburg
Llevará a cabo estructuras de acero destinadas a plataformas de conversión en el Mar del Norte
Contrato por valor de 700 millones de euros para continuar el trabajo del Tercer Valico
Roma
Ha sido suscrito por la Red Ferroviaria Italiana y por Webuild
El puerto de Nápoles se prepara para cerrar 2023 con un tráfico récord de pasajeros
Nápoles
Annunziata: Este año, los cruceristas subirán a 1,6 millones por 448 aprox.
Canarias quiere tener más voz en la gestión de puertos y aeropuertos en el archipiélago
Santa Cruz de Tenerife
El tráfico cae en los puertos de Barcelona y Algeciras en octubre
Barcelona/Algeciras
El mes pasado, los contenedores de envío manejados por las dos estanterías cayeron un -0,4% y -3,0% por ciento.
En el tercer trimestre, el tráfico en los puertos suizos en el Rin creció un 22,3% por ciento.
Basilea
En los primeros nueve meses, el incremento fue del 20,0%.
El título de DIS admitido en las negociaciones sobre el mejor mercado de OTCQX ® en los Estados Unidos
Luxemburgo
Segmento de mercado dedicado a las empresas internacionales
En el Museo Galata del Mar de Génova un simulador le permitirá descubrir las actividades del puerto
Génova
Desde el jueves la instalación será accesible al público
En el puerto de Gioia Tauro es accesible el buque contenedor más grande de la historia
En el puerto de Gioia Tauro es accesible el buque contenedor más grande de la historia
Alegría Tauro
El Calabrian escaló planes para cerrar 2023 con un tráfico de contenedores a nivel récord
Conferencia de Uniport sobre el futuro de la portualidad italiana
Roma
Se celebrará el 5 de diciembre en Roma
COSCO Shipping Lines comunica a los clientes los importes del recargo por el RCDE UE
Shanghai
Se aplicarán a partir del próximo primer mes de enero
El mes pasado el tráfico de contenedores en el puerto de Los Ángeles aumentó un 7.0% por ciento.
Los Angeles
En los primeros diez meses de 2023, se manejaron 7,12 millones de teu (-16,6%).
Mario Zanetti (Costa Crociere) será el próximo presidente del Confitarma.
Mario Zanetti (Costa Crociere) será el próximo presidente del Confitarma.
Roma
Indicación unánime de la Comisión de Designación
En definitiva la carrera para la construcción de la nueva estación marítima en Ravenna
Ravenna
El proyecto incluye la realización del Dune Parc
Forkliftcenter proporciona 59 medios de manejo a Grimaldi Group
Amsterdam
En la entrega 47 carretillas elevadoras y 12 esfinners
El mes pasado, el tráfico de mercancías en el puerto de Valencia aumentó un 7,3% por ciento.
Valencia
En los primeros diez meses de 2023, un descenso del -6,1%
En el puerto de Gioia Tauro, el muelle fue inaugurado para remolcadores
Alegría Tauro
Agostinelli: Hemos estado desaparecidos durante 25 años y hemos encontrado el alojamiento de logística ideal
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