The annual cost for ferry services on the routes Naples-Palermo and Genoa-Palermo which is determined from the application of the European ETS to maritime transport emissions trading ranges between 2.9 million and 19.9 million of euros. This is explained by a study by Giovanni Satta, professor associate professor of Economics and Business Management at the Department of Economics (DIEC) and member of the CIELI Council (Italian Centre of Excellence on Logistics, Transport and Infrastructure) of the University of Genoa, which is was commissioned by the Port System Authority of the Western Sicilian Sea to T.I.M. 10 Srl and which measures the impact European legislation on emissions on maritime connections that keep western Sicily united to the mainland and the smaller islands.

This annual cost varies according to the percentage of transfer of the cost of the EU ETS, i.e. the share of this cost that shipping companies decide to charge customers. With regard to the Naples-Palermo service, the annual cost is €2.9 million if the transfer percentage of the cost of the ETS is 75% and rises to 11.5 million if this cost is not transferred. The study specifies that these two figures represent respectively 1.59% and 6.38% of the share of a Newly built Ro-Pax Green vessel worth 180 million euro that is "not financeable" due to of the ETS charge.

With regard to the Genoa-Palermo route, the annual cost for the ETS is almost five million euros if the percentage of This transfer cost is 75% and over 19.9 million if the cost is not passed on. In this case, the two figures represent 2.27% and 11.08% of the share respectively of the new "non-financeable" Ro-Pax Green.

The study also takes into account the Porto route Empedocles-Lampedusa, treated as a theoretical case because today is not subject to the ETS, where the value of the vessel of reference is much smaller and equal to 37.5 million and for which the annual costs of the ETS are between 314 thousand and almost 1.3 million euros in the case of percentages of cost transfer of 75% and 0% respectively.

The study, entitled "The EU ETS and the cost of of insularity: the effects on maritime connections between the ports of the Western Sicilian Sea, the mainland and the islands minors", was presented this morning in Palermo by the Port Authority of the Western Sicilian Sea and Professor Satta, who spoke in connection to illustrate the project, in view of the presentation by the European Commission of the proposal for revision of the ETS directive which is expected for the next 17 July.

To understand how the EU ETS really affects the prices of ferry tickets, the study has built a methodology in five phases. First the entire travel offer was mapped declared by the shipping companies in July and November, chosen respectively for the high and low periods season, by detecting the rates for three different user profiles: a Adult without vehicle, two adults with car, two adults and two children by car. In parallel, the "deployment" was reconstructed of each line to estimate CO2 emissions and the related ETS cost of each trip. The heart of the model is a matrix of sixteen scenarios, built by crossing four levels load factor (ship fill rates of 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%) with four levels of ETS cost transfer to the customer (25%, 50%, 75%, 100%). For each scenario, the average ETS cost per unit of travel, the average cost per load of the company and, projecting the results on a distribution annual of four months of high season and eight months of low season, the overall impact on an annual basis.

The study finds that ETS weighs the most precisely where the line is already economically more fragile, i.e. on routes with weak demand, low average fares and loads factor factors, because in this case the additional cost is distribution on a smaller number of paying passengers. In addition, notes that as the filling of the vessel decreases, the ETS cost does not increases in absolute value, but becomes structurally more difficult to absorb and shows that the load factor is therefore a key variable to evaluate the capacity of the to absorb or redistribute the ETS burden without compromising the economic balance of the service.

The study then focuses on mitigation technologies highlighting that the adoption of liquefied natural gas instead of Conventional marine fuels significantly reduce exposure to the ETS cost, both for the passenger and for the company, thanks to a lower emission profile, but it does not cancel it. In the Naples-Palermo business case, for example, the "full LNG" scenario lowers the impact of ETS in all combinations of load factor and cost transfer, while leaving the area of maximum risk intact: low demand combined with high rate transfer. For the Genoa-Palermo line, it emerges, In addition, a further theme, that of modal competition: Route presents conditions of potential "contestability" than the all-road alternative, which means that An increase not compensated by the maritime service could push shares of traffic towards the road, with effects opposite to those that environmental legislation would like to produce.

The study also addresses the implications of the EU ETS on accessibility and territorial cohesion, noting that the percentage incidence of the ETS matters more than the value as even an ETS allowance contained in euro can be weigh heavily on the final price when the starting fare is low, and it is precisely this ratio, and not the isolated amount, to measure the real pressure on users. It should also be noted that the most exposed subjects are households with a vehicle at the Below, due to the multiplier effect of the cost on several units, as well as travelers in the low season, users with non-tourist needs and, above all, island territories where there is a lack of mobility alternatives.

The study therefore traces a transmission mechanism that from emissions from the ship reaches territorial cohesion, noting that the increase in the price of the ticket may result in a reduction in the frequency of trips and a increase in the economic burden on family budgets, in particular for the medium-low income brackets. Although these are connections market value, not attributable to the public transport service local or protected by a formal right to continuity - the study underlines - in fact carry out a equivalent function for the economic and social integration of the Sicily with the rest of the country.

Finally, the study highlights a further risk, noting whereas if the cost of the ETS is not passed on in full to the passengers but remains the responsibility of the shipping company, the operating margins are compressed, reducing the ability to self-financing and, in turn, the resources available to invest precisely in decarbonisation technologies that the legislation would like to incentivise, with a consequent possible slowdown of the energy transition triggered by the legislation designed to accelerate it.

On the occasion of today's meeting, the System Authority Port of Western Sicily announced that, in light of the results of the study, will bring to the attention of the European institutions in the context of the revision of the ETS Directive a proposal: to exempt from the application of the system the connections with the major islands and extend until 2032 the derogation already provided for those with the smaller islands, avoiding that the ecological transition will result in a further increase in the cost of insularity.

"The current application of the ETS - commented the president of the Port Authority, Annalisa Tardino - determines an increase in the costs that risk falling on citizens, families and businesses, penalizing above all residents and travel related to the work, study and health. At the same time, it subtracts resources shipowners, reducing their ability to invest in new ships and low-emission technologies, with an effect that risks being in contrast with the very objectives of the ecological transition. For this reason," he added, "we ask that the revision of the Directive is an opportunity to introduce by extending the system of derogation already provided for minor ones and extending its validity until at least 2032. Let's put this study to government and Minister Matteo Salvini, and the European institutions, so that it can make a contribution to the decision-making process and promote a more between environmental sustainability, competitiveness and maritime transport and protection of island communities".