The European Shipowners' Association - ECSA has today published a study on the contribution of the maritime sector to the national budgets of the Member States of the European Union determined by inclusion as of January 1, 2024 of the maritime industry in the ETS (Emissions Trading System) EU Emissions Trading Act, under which From the 2026 reporting year, shipping companies must Surrender allowances equal to 100% of emissions within the scope of the EU ETS. The study specifies that from 2024 shipping companies have declared around 90 million tonnes of verified emissions per year within the scope of the EU ETS, a volume that currently it would imply an annual transfer obligation of about 90 million allowances

The EU ETS applies to all ships above 5,000 gross tonnage, regardless of the flag, which carry out commercial maritime transport services of goods or passengers calling at ports in the European Economic Area, and the emission coverage varies according to the route and is equal to 100% for routes between two EEA ports, 100% for emissions in quay in an EEA port and 50% for sea legs between EEA port and a non-EEA port.

The study examines two scenarios depending on the carbon price under the EU ETS. The first scenario considers as the price of carbon reference 100 euros per tonne of CO2. In this scenario, the annual contribution of the maritime sector to the EU ETS around nine billion euros. The document notes that, even in a scenario with lower prices, equal to 85 euros per tonne of CO2, reflecting a possible slowdown to ETS market, the overall contribution of the of the shipping industry remains very high, standing at €7.65 billion, including both EU revenue and the national ones, the latter equal to 7.7 €100 billion and €6.6 billion in the scenario at 85 euros.

Projecting these numbers onto the next decade 2030-2040, shipping should therefore contribute about 90 billion euros, returning something like 900 million euros allowance.

The ECSA study shows that these large revenues, except for the rare exceptions, they are not reinvested in the energy transition of the maritime sector, with the 2025 Carbon Market Report of the European Commission, which states that the Member States have spent only about 5% of their income from the EU ETS for the energy transition of the economy.

With regard to the maritime sector, the study also highlights that, unlike sectors such as steel, cement, of chemistry and aviation, shipping has never received free allowances and every tonne of its emissions must be covered by purchasing an allowance on the carbon market. The document also recalls that since last January 1, in addition to the CO2, the system also covers maritime emissions of methane (CH4) and of nitrous oxide (N2O), calculated in CO2 equivalent and that from January 1, 2027, the units offshore naval vehicles.

The ECSA study then focuses on a technical distinction often neglected in the public debate, as the contribution paid by shipping companies does not end automatically in the coffers of the State under whose administration the ship falls. Companies buy their shares through primary auctions or on the secondary market, and these payments are completely dissociated from national ETS revenues. Member States' revenue accrues on the other hand, by auctioning the allowances allocated to them in accordance with the "General Distribution Key" of Annex I of the European Commission Decision 2020/2166, a mechanism that is centrally managed by the European Energy Exchange (EEX). The The result - explains the study - is that governments receive a single lump sum of the overall ETS revenue of the EU, instead - the document underlines - of receiving a flow of traceable qualifiable as "shipping money".

Furthermore, before arriving at the national budgets, some of the resources is diverted to EU funds (Innovation Fund and Modernisation Fund) and towards a small compensation mechanism, the so-called "maritime carve-out" of 3.5%, which is reserved for States that bear an administrative burden disproportionate in the management of the EU maritime ETS.

Therefore, only after deduction of EU funds and the share of the 3.5% of the maritime carve-out, the remaining shares flow into the general auction pool and are distributed among the Member States.

The ECSA study then estimates how much each Member State receives as the minimum amount of annual revenue attributable to the inclusion of the maritime transport in the EU ETS. Italy ranks third in the European ranking, with an estimated revenue of 787 million in the case of the carbon reference price of €100 per tonne of CO2 and equal to €669 million in the lower prices of €85 per tonne of CO2. Only Germany, with revenues of 1,667 million and 1,417 million respectively and Poland (972 million / 827 million) precede Italy in this ranking, followed closely by Spain (712 million / 605 million).

The study emphasizes that these figures do not constitute a direct measurement of ETS contributions paid by the administered by each Member State, which are often significantly higher, but rather an estimate additional revenue from associated national auctions the inclusion of maritime transport in the EU ETS.

The study then highlights the critical point of the EU system ETS for both shipping and other sectors of the economy, in particular how much, despite Article 10(3) of the European ETS Directive Member States to allocate revenue to support the climate and energy transition, explicitly including the maritime decarbonisation, the directive does not impose any threshold sectoral minimum, in practice leaving EU Member States free to allocate resources as they see fit among the purposes listed.

The ECSA document recalls in this regard that, according to the Carbon Market Report 2025 of the European Commission, only about the 5% of historical national ETS revenues were effectively invested in industrial decarbonisation, and to the maritime sector, despite being explicitly mentioned in the Directive, dedicated support is almost non-existent: The study points out that only France and Estonia have so far tied a specific share of its ETS revenue to the sector maritime. Italy, despite collecting the third highest figure of Europe, does not appear among these countries.

The study notes that the revision of the ETS Directive, which the European Commission is currently carrying out, represents the opportunity to bridge the gap between resources collected and resources reinvested in the sector, introducing a legal obligation for Member States to allocate at least part of their ETS revenues the availability of sustainable fuels and technologies clean for shipping. The stakes, according to the authors of the study, is not only climatic: it is also a question of European energy security and industrial competitiveness. Sustainable marine fuels now cost an average of four times as much more than conventional ones, and without public support price gap risks slowing down the transition energy sector of the maritime sector just as the latter continues to finance it, billion after billion, through the carbon market.