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6. Oktober 2022 - Jahr XXVI
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05:39 GMT+2
FORUM über Shipping
und Logistik


2003 : a shipping bubble?

 

 

We should savour our pleasure! The year 2003 was an exceptional vintage for most shipping and shipbuilding markets, what wine experts would classify as outstanding, with an abundant harvest from the three main crops - tankers, dry bulk and containers. 

One has to go back as far as the Six Days' War in 1973 and to the Suez crisis in 1956 to find such an equivalent jump in freight rates, but this time without any menacing world war or oil embargo, and really just one principal cause: the economic awakening of China, with its dramatic repercussions for bulk and containers and to a lesser extent oil markets. 

The increase of raw materials imports and finished products exports in and out of China, the lengthening of voyage times, port congestion, and the political crisis in Venezuela and Nigeria, helped to contribute to an increase demand in transport of over 7 % for tankers and bulk carriers, resulting in an average daily rate in 2003 of $ 52,000 for a VLCC, $ 42,000 for a Suezmax and $ 34,000 for an Aframax, whilst the same average rate for bulk carriers was $ 40,000 for a Capesize, $ 20,000 for a Panamax, and $ 15,000 for a Handymax. Average freight rate hikes ranging from between double up to four-times as much within a year! 

This resurgence has made owners more confident and enticed them back to the shipyards, where the level of orders at the end of the year has reached a record level of over 3,500 ships and more than 110 million gt. European shipbuilders, specialising in ships with high added value, have unfortunately only been able to reap some marginal benefits from this situation. 

With such spectacular increases, one is bound to fear whether this is not similar to the frenzy seen in the technological bubble. Are we going to wake up and find ourselves back down in the doldrums that the shipping markets have so often suffered, or have we just entered a more lasting period of virtuous recovery? 

It is obvious that some of the excesses experienced this year will get corrected naturally, and that these corrections will engender some hesitation and nervousness. It is unreasonable that the newbuilding cost of ship can be covered in less than 24 months or that a ship on order get resold four times before being delivered and with a final premium of 40 % on completion. Such speculative enthusiasm can sometimes be a handicap to a sane and steady development. 

However, without being over-optimistic, we believe that the market is well orientated for this new year, due to the enormous needs to equip China and its huge population, the development of the Asian zone, especially India, and above all the economic recovery in the US and Europe, without forgetting the developing trade in energy with the old Soviet republics.  

The return to growth within the large economic zones will automatically contribute to an expansion of seaborne trade and to a healthy use of shipping capacities. In addition, the pace of new orders must inevitably slow down as shipyards are now fully booked up until 2007. 

There is however concern with regards to the fleet of containerships, whose capacity will increase over the next three years by more than 10 % p.a., and thus will only find a full employment provided there is a sustained and continuous increase in world trade, although in the light of the current economical context this is not totally unrealistic. 

It is in such a period of feast that France will enforce legitimate legal means to compete in the expansion of her fleet, by creating a new French International Registry and introducing a tonnage tax scheme. 

We would then hope that, like our European neighbours who already benefit from these facilities, we would see the French fleet grow and reach a more respectable dimension, in line with the economic rank of our country.

 



Shipping and Shipbuilding Markets in 2003

I N D E X

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AB DER ERSTE SEITE
Interporto Padova inaugura il nuovo terminal di 35mila metri quadri dedicato ai semirimorchi
Padova
Pasqualetti: il prossimo traguardo sarà la totale automazione delle operazioni di movimentazione
Si fa più intenso il confronto tra carrier marittimi containerizzati e gli utenti dei loro servizi in vista della decisione sull'eventuale proroga del CBER
Bruxelles
I primi hanno inviato un documento alla Commissione UE motivando le ragioni del rinnovo del regolamento. I secondi hanno spedito una lettera alla commissaria Vestager in cui spiegano che l'attuale sistema premia solo i vettori marittimi
Hupac attiverà un treno shuttle tra Italia e Polonia
Chiasso
Collegherà Gliwice e Pordenone tre volte alla settimana
Nei prossimi giorni l'operatore intermodale elvetico Hupac attiverà un treno shuttle tra Italia e Polonia aperto a tutti gli operatori di trasporto che avrà una frequenza
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CDP, Intesa Sanpaolo e BEI concedono a La Spezia Container Terminal un finanziamento di 160 milioni
La Spezia
Saranno utilizzati, tra l'altro, per acquistare 20 nuovi mezzi di sollevamento
DATEN-BANK
ReedereienWerften
SpediteureSchiffs-ausrüster
agenturenGüterkraft-verkehrs-unternehmer
HÄFEN
Italienische Häfen:
Ancona Genua Ravenna
Augusta Gioia Tauro Salerno
Bari La Spezia Savona
Brindisi Livorno Taranto
Cagliari Neapel Trapani
Carrara Palermo Triest
Civitavecchia Piombino Venedig
Italienische Logistik-zentren: Liste Häfen der Welt: Landkarte
MEETINGS
Il 26 ottobre a Lugano si terrà la quinta edizione di “Un mare di Svizzera”
Grande spazio verrà dedicato al cronoprogramma delle nuove infrastrutture previste a sud della Svizzera
Convegno “Riparazioni navali in crescita: investimenti per il futuro di Genova”
Si terrà il 23 settembre nel capoluogo ligure
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NACHRICHTENÜBERBLICK INHALTSVERZEICHNIS
Furious Phil Goff on a future without Port-omation
(Newsroom)
Le secrétaire général de l'Elysée, Alexis Kohler, mis en examen pour "prise illégale d'intérêts"
(franceinfo)
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Relazione del presidente Daniele Rossi
Napoli, 30 settembre 2020
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