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1. Dezember 2022 - Jahr XXVI
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21:04 GMT+1
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FORUM über Shipping
und Logistik


The Tanker market
in 2000

Crude oil transpor

   

The evolution in freight rates as compared to 1999 has been a real revolution ! Things have accelerated at a pace that no expert could have predicted. From a situation of pseudo-crisis, owners have swung in the space of several months to an unexpected climate of high profitability. This change is all the more surprising in that it applies throughout the whole range of the tanker fleet.

Not only is this a situation which has not been seen since 1973, but above all it seems that it has put paid to the wild fluctuations in rates which have been so characteristic of previous years. Everything points to the tanker market world entering in a new era.

The profound "sea change" which has occurred is in fact due to a combination of several factors : a sustained world growth producing a strong demand for crude oil, a rise in crude prices which has prompted producers to increase their production, and a much greater extension shown by both owners and charterers to aspects of security.

Thus after a quick analysis of the various contribution causes, we shall review the actual effects that have been produced in the main tanker categories. And finally we will try to give our explanations as to why we think that today's current climate is likely to continue over the next few years.
 

The main reasons for this improvement top
The majority of oil importing countries have experienced an extremely strong economy, with record growth levels

For the majority of countries hit by the Asian crisis, the recoveries were much quicker than predicted and their energy requirements grew rapidly. Similarly western countries and in particular the U.S. maintained their growth and energy high levels of consumption. Nonetheless it is worth recalling that the forecast is for a reduced growth in 2001 and that the overall situation in certain countries (Korea and above all Japan) is far from being remedied.

Whereas in 1999 the rise in crude oil prices was dictated by political restrictions from producing countries, the scenario in 2000 was quite different. OPEC has loosened its grip by increasing its production quotas and the majority of producers are now at their maximum capacity. Oil prices are subject again to the traditional laws of supply and demand, whereas to some extend, last year they were artificially sustained.


 

Despite the context of strong demand, global tanker capacity would have been able to fulfill the needs without precipitating the substantial upheavals that we have seen in the freight rates.

Despite the considerable achievements made by the vast majority of oil companies and shipowners over the last 20 years in maritime safety measures and a proportional drop in oil spill accidents, a single disaster was enough to set the market ablaze.

The over-reaction of the media which followed the sinking of the 'Erika' and the extreme commentaries and conclusions which followed, helped provoke an electric shock amongst the players of the profession. The recent accident on the Mississippi of the 'Westchester' will certainly help to consolidate a good number of safety measures taken and accelerate even faster the disposal of single-hulls.

Whilst some of the decisions adopted by politics and oil companies could be termed arbitrary, they have resulted overnight in a totally new and radical approach in determining the choice of tonnage.

Following the U.S. lead, Europe collectively is in the process of setting up its own code of good conduct, affecting the different players : classification societies, flags states, port state controls, and the progressive scrapping of the oldest ships, etc.

In anticipation of these measures, a good number of oil companies have already set up protective steps when chartering-in and have reinforced their systems of vetting, giving priority to recent tonnage (less than 15 years) and applying even stricter criteria for anything between 15 - 20 years.

Given the inherent over-capacity of the world tanker fleet, and above all its age structure, it has been enough to create a drastic reduction in tonnage on offer and to send rates sky-high.

Added to this, has been a strategic consolidation of shipowners, which had started in 1999 and is being reinforced, one can appreciate in the context of sustained demand, the new configuration of the current market.

 

Impact on freight rates
top

From the slump of last year with average earnings being less than $20,000 per day, shipowners not only have achieved acceptable payback levels, but are also ending the year in ecstasy with in some cases earnings up to $100,000 per day !!

With strong demand and full production in most areas, only the Middle East Gulf can perform as the swing source of supply, consequently VLCCs movements have been constantly rising.

In addition one cannot overlook the major role that the West African market plays today : although VLCC liftings remain globally constant, we can notice that there has been a virtual tripling of shipments to the East (Korea and China principally).

This market which was relatively marginal for shipowners up till now, has been transformed into a real "gold mine" in recent months. It suffices to compare the rates which were obtained on the West Africa to US Gulf route in 1999 of about $20,000 per day with the steady increase since the beginning of the year to levels which are exceeding $85,000 per day at the end of the period.

In conjunction with an enforced emphasis on quality sought by the main charterers (giving a priority to new-built vessels) it is equally the changes in vessel supply organisation which has completely reversed the situation.

At the beginning of the year, the setting up the pool "Tankers International" (the commercial operator of six major shipowners) had a profound impact on the market, combining good modern units (25 % of the VLCC fleet under 10 years-old) under one entity. In the light of a steady and firm demand, the pool was able to exercise its strengths straightaway. The economic recovery in Asia and the growing requirements from China helped push up the already high percentage ( over two thirds) of movements to this area.

The Chinese market is far from reaching its full potential, but the 1.5 million bbl/day of imports averaged over 2000 already is the double of 1999. Whereas up till now only Japan and Korea have applied strict selection procedures, it is probable that there will be a progressive tightening of measures by other countries which will help ensure sustained rates for the years to come.

Even if the economic growth over the next three, four or five years does not match the current levels, the role of the Middle East Gulf will become extremely important and will favour the largest size of units.
 

top

With the exception of a short and sudden drop in rates at the end of the summer, levels were likewise steadily upwards for this segment of the market.

On the traditional route of reference West Africa / US Gulf, the equivalent time period charters went form $15,000 per day in 1999 to more than $50,000 per day currently.

The other new and significant phenomenon is that the time yardstick for this category of vessels is no longer West Africa but the European zone and in particular the Mediterranean. In addition to the traditional movements from the Sumed pipeline at Sidi Kerir and the exports of Russian crude from the Black Sea there is now, thanks to the progressive freeing-up of Iraqi sales, steady movements out of Ceyhan.

The projected crude oil exports from the Caspian Sea will help strengthen the importance of this zone in the coming years, as exemplified by the C.P.C. (Capesize Pipeline Consortium) which is due to come into operation as from July 2001. Its initial capacity with the Novorossiysk terminal will be about 28 million tons per year. The Turkish authorities will certainly insist on modern tonnage for the passage through the Bosporous.

In line with VLCCs, the age structure of Suezmax fleet has significantly changed over the last few years and the figures are today comparable in these two categories namely some 70 % less than 15 years and only 30 % above . As a reminder the ratio, only two years ago was 51/49 %.

In light of the general trend and the recent change in mentality in the overall market (valid for the three categories - VLCC / Suezmax / Aframax), a good number of the older vessels have repositioned themselves East of Suez where conditions are less strict. But for how long will their situation last ?
 

top

There again from an average of about $10,000 per day in 1999, the returns have literally taken off this year. On some routes in recent months, shipowners were obtaining TCE levels above $50,000 per day!

Rates rose spectacularly over the last twelve months in all areas. However, for the reasons already mentioned above, this phenomenon was slightly less pronounced East of Suez.

In the Mediterranean, levels were around $15/16,000 per day in January, and at $50,000 per day during the fourth quarter. In the North Sea where TCE rates are less significant, they started at US$20,000 per day to finish at the end of the year sometimes above $70,000 per day. As to the Caribbean, where the market remains extremely volatile, January saw slows of $15,000 per day while December hit highs of $50,000 per day.

In this segment of the tanker fleet, the age structure is slightly different from the two preceding categories, with 65 % less than 15 years and 35 % above. Nonetheless, it is important to realise that 27 % of the current fleet is between 15 - 25 years. This helps explain some draconian measures already taken by some charterers.

On the other hand, a considerable proportion of newly-built units are transporting refined products, which naturally limits even further the choice for the crude oil charterers.

Consequently the main oil companies complying to the new rules or recommendations in forces are confronted with a scarcity of supply and now have to adopt strategies which they rarely faced in the past. To ensure quality tonnage, nowadays, to fix tonnage with an earlier notice to owners. As the majority of voyages are relatively short, this means that vessels frequently have to perform two or even three intermediate voyages, thus putting a considerable risk in case of delays including bad weather or port congestion. Assuming these risks is yet another reason to expect the preserve on higher freight rates being maintained.
 




Shipping and Shipbuilding Markets in 2000

I N D E X

›››Archiv
AB DER ERSTE SEITE
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Amburgo
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Roma
Annunciato un appello circostanziato ai ministeri competenti, primo fra tutti quello del Mare
Anche i risultati della tailandese RCL mostrano il rallentamento del mercato dello shipping containerizzato
Bangkok
Nel periodo luglio-settembre i ricavi sono aumentati del +53%
L'Agenzia per il Lavoro Portuale della Sardegna continuerà ad operare per altri tre anni
Cagliari
L'AdSP della Sardegna afferma che quello del lavoro portuale è un settore che gode di ottima salute
FEPORT, oltre che dell'effetto delle norme ambientali, è preoccupata di quello della possibile proroga del regolamento di esenzione per categoria per i consorzi di linea
Bruxelles
La federazione invita la Commissione UE a tenere conto dell'impatto dei sistemi Big Data e della Business Intelligence & Analytics sull'ambiente competitivo
ECSA è soddisfatta dell'esito del primo trilogo sull'inclusione dello shipping nell'EU ETS
Bruxelles
Ora - ha sottolineato il relatore del Parlamento europeo Liese - siamo vicini ad un accordo formale. Per Assarmatori, il bicchiere è mezzo vuoto
L'attività produttiva nello stabilimento triestino della Wärtsilä proseguirà sino a settembre
Trieste
Sarà avviato un percorso di reindustrializzazione del sito con l'obiettivo di tutelare i posti di lavori sia dei dipendenti della Wartsila sia di quelli dell'indotto
Domani a Vienna la firma degli accordi per l'attivazione del primo e unico corridoio doganale internazionale europeo
Trieste
Collegherà il porto di Trieste con Fürnitz, in Carinzia
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Koper
In decisa ripresa l'attività nel segmento delle auto
Uno studio dell'UIRR sollecita investimenti per realizzare una rete europea di trasporto intermodale efficiente
Bruxelles
Necessari 490 miliardi di euro per l'infrastruttura ferroviaria TEN-T e 47 miliardi di euro provenienti per l'ampliamento e il potenziamento delle risorse intermodali
Uniport sollecita misure urgenti per neutralizzare gli effetti della crisi energetica sui porti
Roma
Chiesta anche una sterilizzazione dell'indicizzazione annuale dei canoni di concessione demaniali per il triennio 2023-2025
Analisi dell'UNCTAD sul trasporto marittimo nel 2021, anno di ripresa e da incorniciare per il segmento dei container
Ginevra
Futuro all'insegna dell'incertezza. Tra agosto e settembre i noli dei servizi containerizzati sono calati drasticamente, ma risultano comunque più che doppi rispetto alle medie pre-pandemia
L'ultima lettura del barometro della WTO sugli scambi mondiali delle merci indica “pioggia”
Ginevra
Atteso un rallentamento del commercio anche nel 2023
Avviata nel porto di Danzica la costruzione del terzo container terminal di Baltic Hub
Danzica
Il progetto comporta un investimento di 450 milioni di euro
Samsung Heavy Industries porta a termine con successo un test di navigazione autonoma
Seul
La sperimentazione su una rotta di circa 950 chilometri
Federlogistica, giù le mani del Ministero dei Beni culturali dalla blue economy
Roma
Merlo: non possono non generare grande preoccupazione le recenti dichiarazioni del sottosegretario Sgarbi
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Roma
La situazione è stata illustrata da Assiterminal ad esponenti del governo e del Parlamento
Dal porto di Rijeka è partito il primo servizio ferroviario regolare per il mercato austriaco
Rijeka
Avvio del treno blocco dall'Adriatic Gate Container Terminal
NÄCHSTE ABFAHRSTERMINE
Visual Sailing List
Abfahrt
Ankunft:
- Alphabetische Liste
- Nationen
- Geographische Lage
Nel terzo trimestre l'indice del fatturato dei servizi di trasporto e magazzinaggio ha registrato una crescita congiunturale del +3,9%
Roma
La variazione tendenziale è del +19,9%
Il Propeller Club di Salerno ha sviscerato le problematiche e le opportunità offerte dal cold ironing
Salerno
Il PNRR destina 700 milioni a 34 porti per l'elettrificazione delle banchine
Lloyd's Register ha ottenuto l'autorizzazione ad ispezionare il naviglio italiano adibito a viaggi nazionali
Londra
Il gruppo britannico potrà agire in qualità di ente tecnico ed organismo tecnico riconosciuto
Il BIMCO prevede che il trend di indebolimento del mercato dello shipping containerizzato si protrarrà nel 2023 e nel 2024
Bagsværd
I carrier, pur di riempire le navi, potrebbero innescare una spirale di discesa dei noli
Hupac incrementerà la frequenza del servizio intermodale Rotterdam-Pordenone
Chiasso
Salirà da tre a cinque rotazioni a settimana
Assarmatori, le tempistiche di applicazione dell'ETS per il trasporto marittimo, in particolare per le Autostrade del Mare, e per il trasporto stradale devono essere allineate
Roma
Messina: è necessario prevenire pericolosi, e potenzialmente irreversibili, fenomeni di trasferimento modale
MSC ha preso in consegna il proprio primo aereo cargo
Ginevra
Verrà impiegato tra Cina. USA, Messico ed Europa
La russa Uralchem sta realizzando un terminal portuale a Taman, in Crimea, per l'esportazione di ammoniaca
Mosca
Dovrebbe diventare operativo entro la fine del 2023
L'indiana Allcargo Logistics acquisisce il 75% del consolidatore tedesco Fair Trade
Mumbai
Investimento di circa 12 milioni di euro
Grimaldi potenzierà i collegamenti con la Grecia
Bari
La frequenza della linea Venezia - Bari - Patrasso diverrà giornaliera
Progetto per la produzione a bordo delle navi di idrogeno pulito e carbonio solido dal metano
Helsinki
Accordo tra le finlandesi Wärtsilä e Hycamite
Bucchioni: SNAM ha diritto di sviluppare la sua attività, ma il porto della Spezia ha il diritto di decidere come utilizzare le proprie infrastrutture
La Spezia
I terminal ex art.16 e art.18 - ha ricordato il presidente degli agenti marittimi - sono le imprese titolate a svolgere le operazioni di imbarco-sbarco merci
Nel terzo trimestre il traffico delle merci nel porto marocchino di Tanger Med è cresciuto del +19%
Ksar El Majaz
Nei primi nove mesi del 2022 l'incremento è stato del +11%
HÄFEN
Italienische Häfen:
Ancona Genua Ravenna
Augusta Gioia Tauro Salerno
Bari La Spezia Savona
Brindisi Livorno Taranto
Cagliari Neapel Trapani
Carrara Palermo Triest
Civitavecchia Piombino Venedig
Italienische Logistik-zentren: Liste Häfen der Welt: Landkarte
DATEN-BANK
ReedereienWerften
SpediteureSchiffs-ausrüster
agenturenGüterkraft-verkehrs-unternehmer
MEETINGS
Genova, workshop “Nuove energie ai porti”
Genova
Si terrà venerdì a Palazzo San Giorgio
Interporto di Nola, convegno su ZES e logistica
Nola
Si terrà il 3 novembre
››› Archiv
NACHRICHTENÜBERBLICK INHALTSVERZEICHNIS
Lichtblick für Seehäfen
(junge Welt)
More than 80 injured as Indian police clash with Adani port protesters
(Reuters)
››› Nachrichtenüberblick Archiv
FORUM über Shipping
und Logistik
Relazione del presidente Daniele Rossi
Napoli, 30 settembre 2020
››› Archiv
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