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26 July 2021 The on-line newspaper devoted to the world of transports 06:19 GMT+2

February 19, 2021

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WTO warns that world trade rebound may have already run out

Several indicators suggest that the peak could be already been reached

The current continuation of the strong rebound in trade may not last long. The warning is World Trade Organization (WTO) which warns that the peak of world trade may have already been achieved. Announcing the latest reading of its trade barometer world trade, the WTO explains that if, after the rebound in world trade in the third quarter of last year after the previous significant collapse caused by the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, the growth of trade is continued to be consistent even in the last quarter of 2019. 2020, however, this pace is unlikely to continue in the first half of 2021 as - specifies the WTO - the main indicators indicate that the peak has already been Reached. In particular, all component indices that need to be to compose the reading of the Goods Barometer are in line with the trend or above that but some already show signs deceleration and others may decrease in the near future.

The WTO also warns that the current barometer reading may not fully highlight the resurgence of the pandemic with the appearance of new variants of the virus, an evolution that - underlines the World Trade Organization - in the first quarter of this year will undoubtedly weigh on trade.

Illustrating the status of some primary indices, the WTO explains that export orders (103.4%) and products (99.8), which - the WTO points out - are among the main most reliable indicators of world trade - recently they both peaked and started losing Momentum. On the other hand, the indices of containerised transport (107.3) and air transport (99.4) are both still growing, although data collected more frequently suggest that the containerised transport has deceleration since the beginning of the of the year. In addition, the indices of electronic components (105.1) and raw materials (106.9) are well above the trend, but this may reflect a temporary accumulation of Stocks. According to the WTO, these trends, as a whole, suggest that the momentum of global trade growth could soon peak if this is not already been reached.

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