Independent journal on economy and transport policy
CENTRO INTERNAZIONALE STUDI CONTAINERS
ANNO XXXVIII - Numero GIUGNO 2020
INTERNATIONAL TRADE TO FALL BY 20% IN 2020
"International trade in goods will fall by 20% in 2020
as economies struggle to recover from lockdown measures used to slow
the COVID-19 outbreak, according to UNCTAD."
Data published in UNCTAD's latest Global Trade Update, its newly
released quarterly report on the global economy, show that
merchandise trade fell by 5% in the first quarter of the year and
point to a 27% drop for the second quarter and a 20% annual decline
"There is still a lot of uncertainty about the possibility
of any economic recovery in the second half of the year," says
Pamela Coke-Hamilton, UNCTAD's director of international trade.
"International trade is likely to remain below the levels
observed in 2019," she adds, "but how far depends on the
pandemic's evolution and the type and extent of the policies
governments adopt as the try to restart their economies."
The data suggests that April was a particularly bad month for
trade, with double digit declines in most regions. The worst
affected was the Middle East, which saw exports fall by 40%.
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused uncertainty and congestion
across the world and ports, as hubs of international trade, have
been severely affected.
For most of 2020 the biggest ports in the US have seen drops in
traffic, particularly the West Coast gateways that handle
substantial trade from China - Los Angeles, Long Beach and Oakland.
However, there is hope that the worst effects of the pandemic
are over, and even that it may push the industry into developing an
electronic Bill of Lading to clear the congestion..
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