It is always important to remember that the average rates exclude all eventual idle time of a ship due to inactive periods between voyages and are neither an indication of an owner’s gross margin on the spot market nor representative of the level of transactions over period business (two years and more).
 

The average spot rates on the reference voyage Middle East Gulf / Japan for the year was higher than the previous year, despite some much more pronounced variations both higher and lower. Starting from a level of close to $ 30 per ton at the beginning of the year, the market then fluctuated between $ 23-30 per ton before reaching a peak of $ 40 in June.

These rates represent a time charter equivalent fluctuating between $ 550,000 and $ 900,000 per month, and an annual average of nearly $ 600,000 per month, from which figure a number of short and long term time charters were concluded at slightly higher levels.

Naphtha demand again largely contributed to keeping the VLGCs fully employed and nearly a third of the Bergesen fleet is employed on the naphtha market (7 to 10 VLGCs) with an average revenue which is very close to the LPG rates depending on the spot fluctuations of the naphtha market.

The price of scrapping, which was higher and well sustained at $ 250 per ton, attracted four VLGCs, including one 75,000 cbm of 26 years-old which is an unusual occurrence in this respect, whereas eight newbuildings were delivered in 2003. By end November 10 VLGC newbuildings were on order for which deliveries spread out between 2004 and 2007.

Some studies and statistics indicate that there will be an important deficit of VLGCs in the next years given the age profile of this sector and the foreseen growth in LPG production. If current growth were in fact to follow these estimates it is likely that a shortage could occur as from 2005 / 2006, but one must be careful of a possible reversal in the situation should the pace of new orders become too intense.

Despite the current buoyant climate and the important number of multiple orders placed with the main shipyards, some of them are still able to offer newbuildings of VLGCs before 2006!
 

This segment is going through a transitional phase due to the first deliveries of the new orders placed two years ago, but currently still strongly influenced by the age profile of the fleet. Of the 24 units which comprise this category and currently in service, eight are over 25 years-old and sixteen more than 20 years-old, whilst 7 new units are due to be delivered over the next two years.

Such a marked division in ages and ships’ specifications has resulted in a freight differential being paid by the market to ships of the older generation, primarily engaged in the ammonia trade where the terminals are able to avoid the restrictions imposed by the oil Majors, compared to higher rates obtained by more modern ships.

Despite the very small change in demand compared to the previous year and an idle period which is still considerable, the average level of short term time-charter rates (6 to 18 months) rose very slightly, moving up from a monthly rate of $ 500,000 to $ 550,000 at the beginning of the year to $ 600,000 to $ 625,000 in the last quarter of 2003 for the older units, whereas the more modern vessels were able to achieve $ 700,000 to $ 750,000 per month.

Some Majors have become owners in this segment size such as Sonatrach with three carriers to be delivered 2004 / 2005 and Hydro for two 60 000 cbm due 2005 / 2006, but the category remains relatively fragile and has to depend on the scrapping of the oldest units, which in all likelihood should occur imminently.
 

This category of vessel stands out from the other sectors by producing the best results and by their more consistent and regular performance, thanks to a demand which is shared between ammonia for a large part and LPG to a lesser extent.

As is the case for the VLGCs and the LGCs which have been reviewed above and which is dominated by one operator Bergesen, in the Midsize sector Exmar has the majority control.

Although still affected by an important idle time (11% in 2003, slightly below last year’s level), the average revenues have increased over the year thanks to a more sustained demand for longer voyage movements (trans-Atlantic towards the US, cross Europe and East Med towards India for ammonia).

The flexibility in the size of these ships allows them to play between the two main markets of LPG and ammoniac, despite the additional costs of changing grades. The monthly level of 12 to 18 months time-charters for a 35,000 cbm vessel in January was roughly $ 585,000, whereas the current rate is $ 650,000 per month, and spot demand remains firm. That of a 24,000 cbm refrigerated was around $ 550,000 during the last quarter 2003.

As we somewhat suspected last year, this sector has seen an important rush of new orders: five 39,000 cbm shared between Bergesen, APMoller, and Exmar for delivery between 2005 and 2006, and one 39 000 cbm for Bibby, still associated with Exmar in the Midsize pool and which should be delivered early 2005. Still under construction for delivery during 2004, is the 35,000 cbm for Mitsubishi and two Qatari 23,000 cbm.

The current market is not really conducive to new orders, but the various players, already heavily involved in the quality regulations required by the LPG industry and probably also in ammonia in the near future, are doing their best to maintain their positions within their size categories and to respond to the quality improvements being exacted by the majority of oil Majors.
 

The phenomenal rise in strength of this part of the world should have repercussions on LPG demand and derivatives in the East of Suez, even taking into account the volumes and foreseen expansions on the various production sites being established in Asia these past few years.
 

Another very disappointing year for owners, more numerous in this sector. The efforts to concentrate operations which were made two years ago (breaking up of the Tarquin fleet, and the merger between Exmar and Lauritzen on the smaller pressurised vessels), has not produced any significant increases and levels have remained “under pressure” during a large part of the year to average out on a monthly time-charter rate between $ 130,000 for the small 3,200 cbm and $ 275,000 for the larger size of 6,000 to 8,000 cbm, and a little bit more for the 8,000 cbm ethylene carriers. 

The petrochemical sector has nonetheless prevented a worsening of idle time and of rates obtained on the LPG market, with the development of some long haul movements from Europe to the US or S.E. Asia for propylene and ethylene. 

This sector has always suffered from an excess capacity of tonnage, but this should begin to rectify itself given the lack of orders for any newbuildings. A situation which is totally logical given the very low return on investment which owners are experiencing in this category. 

Most of the shipyards are in fact fully booked up until the end of 2006 and the other shipping sectors (oil, bulk, and LNG) should continue to keep them busy with new orders. 

This new situation risks to upset the balance between the supply and demand of ships of the refrigerated and semi-pressurised class, at a time when the need for new orders can no longer been satisfied with deliveries in one year and despite the existence of the smaller Japanese shipyards, which have always been specialised in this sector at competitive prices. 

The orderbook is limited to two 3,000 cbm semi-pressurised / refrigerated for Italian account for delivery at the beginning of 2004, two 4,000 cbm also semi-pressurised / refrigerated for Geogas with Japanese shipyards for delivery in 2005, and three other 7,200 cbm pressurised of which two are for Brazil and the other Japan with during delivery in 2004.
 

The most serious forecasts sometimes miss their target due to some small unexpected elements, which nobody had foreseen but which changes the outlook (disease, terrorism, etc.). We only hope however that some of these new trends can develop in a calm and orderly mood so as to allow the market to steer and set sail towards a brighter horizon.
   

• Carriers over 50,000 cbm

Nine sales were reported this year, of which four for scrapping at a rate between $ 200 and $ 260 per lightweight ton (which represents about $4 to 5 million per ship).

Four other sales concerned ships between 20 and 25 years old and were finalised at prices from $ 3.0 up to $ 8.5 million for the most recent (built in 1982).

Two modern candidates for sale came onto the market at the beginning and at the end of the year, but obtained similar prices. At the start to the year Naftomar bought the ‘Gas Roman’, 78,000 cbm, built in 1990 for around $ 32 million. Later in the year Bergesen purchased the ‘Flanders Gloria’, built in 1991, for $ 33 million. For reference the latter had been acquired by Exmar five years ago for $50 million.

• Carriers between 20,000 - 50,000 cbm

No transaction for further trading has been reported this year. The episode of the ‘Navigator’ has still not come to an end and the story is still an open book.

• Carriers between 10,000 - 20,000 cbm

 Three sales for scrapping have been concluded this year. As to sales for further trading, the London owner Zodiac has continued to strengthen his position in this category with the purchase of the ‘Nelly Maersk’, 14,700 cbm, built in 1990, for about $ 15.5 million in June. This vessel will join the five other ships of similar size acquired in 2001 and which remain employed in the ‘Maersk NGC’ pool.

• Carriers between 3,000 and 10,000 cbm

Small pressurised ships remained at the low levels of last year. Most of the sales have been made between Far Eastern buyers and sellers, with the notable exception of ‘Chemgas Mango’ and ‘Chemgas Durian’, 3,200 cbm, built in 1997, and which were bought for $ 5.2 million each by Dorian Hellas, who continues to built up its position in the small size LPG market, after having purchased last year two ships of similar type and same age at comparable terms.

As to the semi-refrigerated market, only the oldest and cheapest ships were able to find a buyer other than for scrap. We can cite the ‘Galp Faro’, 5,000 cbm, built in 1982, and sold for $ 2.5 million.