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28 June 2022 The on-line newspaper devoted to the world of transports 13:25 GMT+2



June 7, 2022

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Original news
For BIMCO, the maritime transport market containerized could be close to deterioration

More optimistic forecasts for the segments of the transport of solid and liquid bulk

First the Covid-19 pandemic. Now the Russia-Ukraine war. Two events that have impressed and are continuing to have a strong impact on the world economy. The first, as had happened even if in a more acute form during the financial crisis of the 2008-2009, it almost stopped the engine of the global economy. The second has created such tensions and uncertainties that it is difficult not to may not have a long-term effect even if the conflict should it end today.

All sectors of the economy have been affected, except - or almost - one. To come out almost unscathed from this short but Ruinous phase of history is the shipping industry. Or more precisely, that part of the transport sector maritime that moves goods, because the health crisis stopped for some time the ferry fleets and for a longer period cruise ship fleets that only in these weeks are they returning to full operation.

To confirm the good health of shipping, excellent even for different segments of the industry, they are the latest analyses on sectors of maritime transport of containers and solid bulk, and liquids published today by BIMCO, the international association of shipowners and maritime operators representing more than 60% of the world fleet of ships carrying goods.

To come out well, indeed more than well, from the last two years of crisis is the containerized maritime transport sector. A starting from spring-summer of 2020 all the main Shipping companies of this segment of the industry have ringed an uninterrupted series of record financial results determined, according to the vast majority of analyses, sometimes hasty, by the significant increase in demand and by the effects of supply chain congestion. Well, according to the BIMCO, this is a shipping industry that is starting to show some cracks and have to deal with more and more Uncertainties. To be honest, BIMCO is not the first to predict a next turning point for shipping containerized, so much so that this prediction seems more fruity of the awareness that the economic-financial performance achieved by the sector are so high that it is inevitable a flattening of the curve or a decrease to less levels exceptional compared to those recently tested.

BIMCO believes that a sign of a possible change is the weakening of containerized maritime traffic volumes. Decline that, in truth, has been taking place for months in several primary markets and that for now does not seem to have had significant repercussions on the financial results of shipping companies. However, BIMCO has highlighted, in particular, the decline in containerized volumes transported on head-haul and regional, which in March 2022 - specified the organization - are decreased by -0.4% and -1.4% respectively year-on-year, also if they were up by +11.0% and +1.8% compared to March 2019. BIMCO highlighted the particular weakening of volumes in Oceania and Europe that decreased last March respectively of -8.6% and -6.9% on an annual basis, while volumes in North America they continued to grow with a +5.8% year on year.

With regard to the market for container ships, BIMCO found that in the timed rental market segment the tariffs showed a slight weakening from the peak of end of March and ship owners had to accept periods of much shorter rentals, which have now dropped to two on average years compared to the four-year peak of mid-2021. With regard to the selling price of used container ships, the organization noted that prices seem to have reached the peak and that the number of transactions is remarkably decreased, while in the case of new ships orders and prices of newly built units recorded a slowing down.

Illustrating what factors affect and will influence the trend of the containerized maritime transport market, between such as the prolonged lockdown in China, the conflict in Ukraine, the rules for the decarbonisation of shipping and the significant boost to inflation, BIMCO has specified that it believes that this industry segment now confronts uncertainties remarkable and unprecedented both in terms of demand future that the offer, with an offer of hold capacity that - according to the organization - however it will grow more rapidly of the demand with a consequent forecast the weakening of the balance between supply and demand. That for BIMCO, it should lead to a reduction in the level of freight and charter rates for ships, as well as prices of second-hand container carriers. BIMCO believes however, freight rates and ship prices are unlikely to fall quickly towards pre-Covid levels, although - he specified the association - it is not possible to completely exclude the possibility of the forecast scenario materializing worst for the world economy formulated by the MONETARY Fund International, which would also have negative repercussions for the containerized shipping.

As regards the maritime transport of dry bulk, the BIMCO noted that the industry is facing several challenges, starting with declining volumes of grain shipments to following the closure of Ukrainian ports and the low level of the traffic in China, partially offset by renewed interest for coal in the European Union. However, from the beginning of this year the demand has recorded an increase of almost +5% compared to the same period of 2021, although the association considers that this is mainly due to the increase in congestion and that it is difficult to predict what developments will be in the near future. Right now - explained BIMCO - we remain cautiously optimistic about demand for the remainder of the 2022, while in 2023 sustained growth could be generated if the commodity prices and inflation were at levels "normal". In conclusion, for BIMCO, although they remain many risks for the world economy and for the demand for goods at the in bulk, there is optimism about the fact that in 2022 the growth in demand will correspond, or at least will not be much lower, compared to the expected growth in supply, while more growth is currently expected for 2023 of demand, with a balance between supply and demand that in the year should be further facilitated by the regulation of decarbonisation which is likely to have the effect of reduction of the average browsing speed. We therefore - bimco clarified - that the balance between demand and offer will move in favor of ship owners.

The forecast analysis of the market of the maritime transport of liquid bulk. After two years of slowdown for Covid, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the market upheaval that followed - noted the BIMCO - freight rates have increased to rarely recorded levels. Illustrating what are and may be the effects of sanctions against Russia on the market and the other challenges facing the owners and operators of tankers, BIMCO has specified to believe that the overall recovery in demand, together with the increase in the average tonne-miles transported and the very limited growth of the fleet determine an ever greater balance between supply and demand in the market for tanker ships and that decarbonisation rules are very likely to be in 2023 will further strengthen this balance. Overall - ha highlighted bimco - it seems that ship owners and operators can expect very solid market conditions.







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