A +0.9% increase in trade is expected in 2025 compared to last year, an increase that has higher than the -0.2% contraction expected in April, but down from the previous estimate of +2.7% increase the tariff increases introduced by the US Presidency of Donald Trump. The new forecast on the evolution of trade is was formulated today by the World Trade Organization (WTO) and is was defined mainly on the basis of advances relating to imports into the United States and in the first quarter of the have seen a surge in view of tariff increases widely expected.

If the "reciprocal" duties announced and then introduced and therefore negotiated by the US administration constitute a watershed in world trade, however, the WTO warned their effect will be felt in the second quarter of 2025 and, above all, in 2026 when the expected growth in volume of trading will be +1.8% compared to the previous estimate by +2.5%.

The World Trade Organization has announced that the latest estimates indicate a decline in both exports and North American imports, with declines expected respectively of -4.2% and -8.3%, trade flows that for the whole of 2026 are currently expected to mark percentage changes year on year equal to +0.7% and -2.4% respectively. For Europe, in 2025 it is A -0.9% drop in exports and an increase of +0.4% is expected of imports, percentage changes that are expected in 2026 both will be positive and equal to +3.6% and +2.7%. With regard to Asia, 2025 is expected to end with Exports and imports up by +4.9% and +3.3% and are expected in 2026 increases of +1.3% and +2.8%. Trade is also on the rise of the world, with +1.2% and +6.8% respectively of the exports and imports in 2025 and with changes in +1.3% and +2.7% in 2026.

Commenting on the latest forecasts for 2025, the director General of the WTO, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, noted that "the Global trade has shown resilience in the face of shocks including recent tariff increases. Imports and the improvement in macroeconomic conditions have made a modest improvement to the outlook for 2025. However, the overall impact of the recent tariff measures has is still demonstrating. The shadow of tariff uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on business confidence, investments and supply chains. Uncertainty remains one of the most important disruptive forces in the global trade environment. However, it is important that A wider cycle of retaliation has been avoided so far "eye for an eye", which could be very harmful for global trade".