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03 July 2022 The on-line newspaper devoted to the world of transports 22:30 GMT+2

June 13, 2022

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In the next six to nine months the momentum of the economy in the OECD nations could lose strength

Considerable uncertainties related to the war in Ukraine and the supply chain dysfunctions

In the next six to nine months the momentum of the economy in the Nations of the Organization for Co-operation and Development Economic (OECD) could lose strength due to the impact of the war in Ukraine and continuous supply chain disruptions worldwide. This perspective, the OECD explained today, is confirmed by the latest reading of the Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs), the indicators developed by the OECD to formulate a short-term forecasting of turning points in business cycles. The last reading, the international organization specified, supports the projections presented in the last "Economic" Outlook" of the OECD which has revised downwards the forecasts of global growth due to the impact of conflict and supply chain dysfunctions.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development has pointed out that at present, in the main OECD economies, the CLIs are at or below the long-term level trend term, indexes - specified the organization - which are pushed on the downside by high inflation and very low confidence in the consumers, with a loss of momentum that concerns in particular the euro area as a whole, including Germany, France and Italy, as well as the United Kingdom and Canada, while the indicators continue to aim for stable growth in the United States and Japan. In addition, the OECD explained that among the major economies emerging, indices indicate that growth is currently losing momentum in China, relative to the industrial sector, and is slowing in Brazil, while growth is stable in India.

The OECD has pointed out that, in view of the continuing uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine and Covid-19 results in higher than usual fluctuations in components of CLIs, indicators should still be interpreted carefully and their extent should be perceived as an indication of the strength of the signal plus than a measure of the growth of economic activity.

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