That the elephant Donald Trump, who rushed into the glassware of world economies by claiming to buy objects at the prices of the world's economies torn up by himself, has produced more that procuring advantageous purchases now seems to be realized even by the US president himself. The short and medium-long effects end of this hasty and rash entry that has shaken balances that probably would have needed more shrewdness to be shifted to the advantage of the United States, adding to other factors capable of curbing trade World.

In trade, uncertainty now reigns supreme and weakens the economic growth. This is revealed by the latest forecast report OECD's "Economic Outlook" which highlights how significant barriers to trade, more a decline in confidence and increased uncertainty policies are expected to have a negative impact on growth. For this year, the OECD report predicts a slowdown in the global economic growth which, as in 2026, should be equal to +2.9% compared to +3.3% recorded in 2024. Especially the OECD expects that the slowdown in growth will be more accentuated in the United States themselves, Canada, Mexico and China, with an expected growth in gross domestic product in the United States, which will decrease from +2.8% in 2024 to +1.6% in 2024. 2025 and +1.5% in 2026. In the euro area, on the other hand, a modest strengthening of growth, from +0.8% in 2024 to +1.0% in 2025 and +1.2% in 2026. In China, a slowdown is expected growth from +5.0% in 2024 to +4.7% in 2025 and +4.3% in 2025 2026.

The report also notes that in some economies there are inflationary pressures re-emerged and notes that higher costs trade in countries that increase customs duties will have the effect of further increasing inflation, even if The impact will be partially offset by falling prices of raw materials. Annual headline inflation is expected to in the G20 economies from 6.2% to 3.6% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026.

The OECD's Economic Outlook highlights a number of risks to the world economy, starting from the fear that a further fragmentation of trade, including the effect of further increases in duties and consequent retaliatory actions, may accentuate the slowing growth and causing significant disruption in cross-border supply chains. In addition, inflation could be more persistent than expected, especially in economies facing significant commercial costs or tensions in labour markets, leading to tighter monetary policies and weakening the growth prospects. The report also notes that the increase in debt payments could lead to an increase in the tax burden on governments around the world, while conditions of taxation financial constraints could lead to additional risks for low-income nations. In addition, the stock markets They have recovered from a recent crisis, but remain volatile.

According to the OECD, a reversal of the trend compared to the new trade barriers would instead strengthen growth prospects and reduce inflation, and a peaceful resolution of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and the conflicts in Middle East could help improve confidence and promote investment.

"The global economy - commented the Secretary General of the OECD, Mathias Cormann - has gone from a period of resilient growth and falling inflation on a more uncertain. Our latest economic outlook shows that Current political uncertainty is weakening trade and investment, reducing consumer and business confidence, and curbing growth prospects. Governments must work together to address any problems in the trading system in a positive and constructive way through dialogue, keeping markets open and preserving the economic benefits of a rules-based global trade for competition, innovation, productivity, efficiency and, in particular, growth".