The recovery continued in the third quarter of this year of world trade in goods after last year's halt due to rising inflation and rising interest rates interest. This was announced today by the World Trade Organization communicating the latest reading of the barometer devised by the WTO in order to of a forecast of the trend of world trade in terms of volumes of goods traded. The World Trade Organization pointed out that, if the barometer reading is a signal However, the outlook remains very uncertain due to the growing geopolitical tensions, regional conflicts in the change in monetary policy in the economies of the and weakening export orders.

The WTO explained that, after remaining unchanged Since the last quarter of 2022, the volume of global trade in began to rise in the fourth quarter of 2023 and gained momentum in the first quarter of 2024. In particular, in the first quarter of this year, which is the last period for the data are available, world trade in goods in volume ratio increased by +1.0% quarter-on-quarter quarter and +1.4% year-on-year. Quarterly growth in the last two quarters has averaged +0.7%, which is equivalent to to +2.7% on an annual basis, an increase - highlighted the WTO - which is in line with the most recent World Trade forecast Organization formulated last April which envisaged an increase in the +2.6% in world trade volume in 2024. The data value-based commodity trade - ha the WTO - show a growth in trade more weaker-than-expected growth in Europe and stronger growth of expectations in other regions.

In addition, the WTO explained that currently the barometer shows that all indicators relating to the components that define the overall index are in line with or above the trend, with the notable exception of the electronic components index (95.4) which is below trend and is falling. Indexes of components related to automotive products (103.3), container transport (104.3), represented on the basis of the containerized traffic in terms of volume handled by world's main ports, and air transport (107.1) are all firmly above the trend, although the index of products seems to have recently lost momentum. The new export orders (101.2), which - the WTO specified - are usually the most predictive component of the barometer, are slightly positive but have decreased, which could be cause for concern for the future. The commodity index (99.3) is almost in line with the trend but has decreased abruptly in the last three months.